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Bitcoin (BTC) is trading within a critical range as markets await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Aug. 12.
A recent report from Bitfinex Alpha suggests BTC is positioned for either a breakout to new all-time highs or a retracement toward $110,000 in support levels.
The inflation data released on Aug. 12 marks a pivotal moment, with market sensitivity to macroeconomic events reaching elevated levels.
The report noted that Bitcoin has recovered from its Aug. 1 breakdown, successfully reclaiming the $112,000 support level despite multiple failed attempts to breach the $115,800 resistance.
Following this reclaim, BTC briefly broke above the $119,500 range highs and has sustained the breakout as of press time, leaving traders in a “wait-and-watch” position.
Recovering flows
This recovery follows a sharp reversal in exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows. Between July 31 and Aug. 5, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows exceeding 1,500 BTC, equivalent to approximately $1.45 billion, marking the largest four-day selling stretch since April 2025.
However, the three trading sessions since August 5 generated $769 million in net inflows, helping to restore market confidence.
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The report argued that given the correlation between ETF flows and macroeconomic outcomes in recent months, this recent recovery could be pivotal in determining whether BTC breaks above range highs toward new all-time highs or retests recent lows.
Corporate treasury support continues
Corporate crypto adoption has provided structural support as treasury companies increasingly follow the “Strategy Playbook.” The combined net asset value of crypto treasury companies has risen steadily since early April, approaching all-time highs above $90 billion.
This institutional accumulation reflects a shift toward treating crypto as strategic reserves rather than speculative trades.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance has declined recently, signaling a rotation of speculative capital toward altcoins ahead of the macroeconomic data release. Bitcoin currently trades above the short-term holder cost basis of $106,709, positioning it in a “warm but not overheated” zone typical of mid-phase bull market conditions.
The report showed that 45% of recently acquired BTC is being sold for gains, with approximately 70% of the short-term holder supply remaining in profit. This balanced market backdrop suggests continued volatility around key macro data releases.
However, the conditions and oscillation between range highs and lows are likely to continue, given the price pattern of constantly moving above and below the cost basis of recent investors.
Despite the risk of a potential retracement toward $110,000, the report assessed that the broader structural outlook remains constructive given institutional accumulation and resilient spot demand.
The post New all-time highs or $110,000 retest trigger: Bitcoin awaits CPI data release appeared first on CryptoSlate.
