More than $2 billion in “unclaimed” Bitcoin is set to enter the market this month, potentially exerting downward pressure within the vulnerable $67,000 to $74,000 price range.

FTX’s fourth round of bankruptcy recovery distributions is set to occur at a notable time. The estate will commence the transfer of approximately $2.2 billion to qualifying creditors on Mar. 31, coinciding with Bitcoin (BTC) rising above $70,000 into what Glassnode identified as a narrow $72,000-$82,000 on-chain area.

On Mar. 18, FTX revealed that the fourth distribution will take place from Mar. 31 to Apr. 3, with eligible creditors anticipated to receive payments through BitGo, Kraken, or Payoneer within 1 to 3 business days.

Claims from Dotcom customers will see an additional 18% increase, achieving a total recovery of 96%, while US customer claims will receive 5% to reach full recovery at 100%. General unsecured and digital asset loan claims will each receive 15% to also reach 100%. Convenience claims will remain at a cumulative 120%.

This distribution marks the largest since the over $5 billion second round in May 2025 and is 37.5% greater than the $1.6 billion third distribution in September 2025.

The sheer nominal size signifies a significant liquidity event, even though it does not reach half the magnitude of the May distribution.

Bar chart illustrating FTX distribution rounds by size, highlighting the May 2025 second distribution exceeding $5 billion, the September 2025 third distribution at $1.6 billion, and the fourth distribution from March 31 to April 3 at $2.2 billion.

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FTX creditors poised to receive $5B by May 30 in latest distribution round

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Bitcoin’s current structure

Bitcoin is presently trading around $70,000, having reached an intraday low of $69,500 after a high of $74,603 yesterday.

According to Glassnode’s Mar. 18 report, BTC has surpassed $70,000 and entered a lightly accumulated zone between $72,000 and $82,000, facing minimal on-chain resistance.

The market has ventured into that range but remains just above or below the lower boundary, still striving to maintain the breakout effectively.

Approximately 60% of the supply is currently in profit. Glassnode indicates that a sustained movement above 75% would be necessary to confirm a genuine early bull transition.

The report continues to view this as an early conviction rather than a fully established bull market.

Consequently, the current situation is characterized by absorption. Short-term holders realized profits surged to $18.4 million per hour as BTC neared $74,000, reflecting similar sell-into-strength behavior observed in February.

If the market can absorb that selling pressure and remain above $70,000, higher levels such as the True Market Mean around $78,000 and the upper air-gap band near $82,000 become increasingly feasible.

However, if absorption fails, the movement may still resemble a fragile bear market recovery rather than a robust trend change.

The ongoing recovery appears to be more driven by spot activity than leverage.

Glassnode notes that ETF allocations have rebounded, spot cumulative volume delta has increased, Coinbase spot activity has stabilized and turned positive, while CME futures positioning remains subdued.

CoinShares reports that digital asset investment products attracted $1.06 billion last week, with Bitcoin comprising $793 million, extending the three-week Bitcoin inflow streak to $2.2 billion.

Derivatives present a constructive yet cautious outlook, as Glassnode observes the market emerging from negative funding and defensive hedging.

Deribit indicates that BTC funding has returned to approximately neutral, BTC futures-implied yields are stable at around 2% to 3% across various tenors, and seven-day BTC implied volatility is near 52%.

This profile aligns with a recovering market that lacks aggressive speculative conviction.

Bitcoin’s current structure with price around $71,000 above the $70,000 breakout level, entering a thin on-chain zone between $72,000 and $82,000, with approximately 60% of supply in profit and short-term holders realizing $18.4 million per hour near $74,000.

Why FTX cash can have an impact now

CoinShares reports that Bitcoin investment products absorbed $2.2 billion over the past three weeks.

FTX is distributing $2.2 billion in cash. The two flows differ in nature: one signifies direct Bitcoin fund inflows, while the other pertains to bankruptcy cash allocated to numerous creditors. Nevertheless, their nominal amounts are identical.

The payout tests recycled liquidity, but it remains uncertain whether even a modest recycling ratio is sufficient to influence a market attempting to maintain levels above $70,000 while absorbing $18.4 million per hour in short-term holder profit-taking.

Additionally, Glassnode highlighted that the FTX cash distribution occurs following the March options expiry tailwind. Approximately $4.5 billion of negative dealer gamma is concentrated around $75,000, with $3.9 billion set to expire this month.

The report cautions that once the quarter-end expiry concludes, the unwinding of dealer hedges could introduce headwinds or lead to consolidation. FTX cash may arrive just as a critical supportive market mechanism diminishes.

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Mar 17, 2026 · Gino Matos

A recycling model

At a 5% recycling rate, $110 million represents about 13.9% of last week’s Bitcoin fund inflows and roughly 6 hours at the current $18.4 million-per-hour short-term holder realized profit pace.

This is significant, though likely insufficient to drive direction independently.

At a 10% recycling rate, $220 million equates to about 27.7% of last week’s Bitcoin fund inflows and approximately 12 hours of current short-term holder profit realization. This amount could influence price action over a brief period, particularly if ETF flows remain positive.

At a 20% recycling rate, $440 million represents about 55.5% of last week’s Bitcoin fund inflows and nearly 24 hours of current short-term holder profit realization. At this level, the payout becomes a meaningful marginal bid.

At a 30% recycling rate, $660 million equals about 83.2% of last week’s Bitcoin fund inflows. This is the threshold at which an FTX-driven re-risking wave would become apparent relative to recent institutional spot demand.

If the entire $2.2 billion were distributed evenly over three days, that would amount to $733 million per business day.

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Feb 11, 2026 · Gino Matos

When spread evenly over 72 hours, it translates to about $30.6 million per hour, compared to the current $18.4 million per hour short-term holder realized profit rate. Even modest recycling rates warrant attention in a thin liquidity environment, where absorption capacity dictates direction.

Recycle rate	Cash potentially rotating back	Share of last week’s BTC fund inflows	Equivalent at $18.4M/hour STH profit-taking	Takeaway
5%	$110M	13.9%	~6 hours	Noticeable, but likely not enough alone
10%	$220M	27.7%	~12 hours	Can affect short-term price action
20%	$440M	55.5%	~24 hours	Becomes a meaningful marginal bid
30%	$660M	83.2%	~36 hours	Large enough to show up clearly in the tape

The bullish scenario assumes a 10% to 20% recycling rate, coupled with positive ETF demand and a continued spot-led bid. BTC reclaims and maintains the lower air-gap boundary, absorbs short-term holder selling, and begins trading towards the $78,000 True Market Mean, followed by $82,000.

The key indicator would be price strength without significant re-leveraging in futures, validating the healthier spot-led recovery narrative.

The bearish scenario assumes that most recipients de-risk, hold cash, or redeploy elsewhere. BTC loses the lower air-gap boundary and drifts back toward the previous $64,000-$72,000 accumulation range.

The market effectively indicates that the returned FTX cash cannot outweigh existing profit-taking and post-expiry challenges.

The late-March period will serve as a test for recycled liquidity entering a spot-led market before leverage has fully returned.

The outcome will depend on how much of the returned FTX funds translates into new crypto demand.

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