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Markets estimate a 36% chance of a government directive on cryptocurrency at this time, with a 56% probability of Bitcoin being held in reserve.
President-elect Donald Trump made numerous commitments to the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency communities during his presidential campaign. As he is inaugurated for a second term later today, we examine which of these promises are likely to be realized.
Following the successful prediction of the US election outcome, Polymarket traders are now attempting to forecast which commitments he will fulfill.
Polymarket data indicates high expectations regarding pardons for the January 6 defendants and Ross Ulbricht, as well as potential support for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Traders are also monitoring whether new tariffs will be implemented on Mexico or Canada and if an executive order on cryptocurrency will be issued on Day 1.
| Prediction | Probability | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Trump will establish a Bitcoin Reserve within the first 100 days | 56% | $2,598,422 |
| Over 40 Executive Orders signed on Day 1 | 64% | $536,229 |
| January 6 protestors pardoned in first 100 days | 99% | $7,952,113 |
| Trump will save TikTok in the first week | 92% | $327,345 |
| Trump will end the Ukraine conflict within the first 90 days | 34% | $9,281,609 |
| Trump will issue a crypto executive order on Day 1 | 36% | $193,914 |
| January 6 protestors pardoned on Day 1 | 92% | $119,449 |
| Trump will sign a national abortion ban | 20% | $605,920 |
| Gulf of Mexico renamed to “Gulf of America.” | 66% | $73,021 |
| 25% tariff imposed on Mexico/Canada | 31% | $448,663 |
| Trump will purchase Greenland in 2025 | 20% | $798,726 |
| Trump will declassify JFK assassination records | 75% | $512,872 |
Markets indicate that pardons and selected cryptocurrency policies have the highest likelihood. Polymarket assigns a 99% chance of pardons for nonviolent January 6 participants within Trump’s first 100 days and a 92% chance for pardons on Day 1. Ross Ulbricht, whom Trump promised to release on day one, has an 83% probability of receiving clemency in the first 100 days.
There is also a strong indication that TikTok may remain operational despite previous regulations requiring its sale or ban, with a 92% probability by the end of the first week. Another high-probability scenario involves more than 40 executive orders on Day 1, assessed at 64%.
Will Trump fulfill crypto promises?
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Crypto-related actions rank among the top concerns for traders, with over $2 million traded, although their probabilities are lower. A strategic Bitcoin reserve has only a 56% chance within the first 100 days, and a Day 1 executive order on digital assets, addressing de-banking and fair value accounting, stands at 36%.
More likely than either of these crypto reforms is the declassification of the JFK assassination records (75%) by April 29. It is also more probable (66%) that the Gulf of Mexico could be renamed the “Gulf of America.”
Some events appear less certain. Ending the Ukraine conflict within 90 days has a 34% probability. Polymarket also assigns only a 31% chance that new 25% tariffs on Mexico or Canada will be enacted. A potential acquisition of Greenland has a 20% likelihood, and the possibility of a national abortion ban is assessed at 20%.
Some of these items, such as pardons or numerous executive orders, may occur with minimal procedural delay. Others, including foreign policy changes or territorial acquisitions, often require extensive negotiations.
Ultimately, Polymarket traders seem more optimistic about a pro-crypto administration than ever before. While they are not convinced that significant reform will occur within the first 100 days, the sentiment is clearly more positive than that of any previous administration.
Outcomes that do not materialize quickly may resurface later in Trump’s term. Polymarket data is dynamic, and odds may change if official statements or early actions indicate a different policy direction.
The pace of executive activity can be rapid during the first week of a new term, so any early signals may influence how participants bet on each scenario. These markets provide a new avenue for those interested in US politics, as Polymarket data reacts swiftly to breaking news, making it an increasingly valuable indicator for policy change.
The post Markets predict 36% likelihood of crypto executive order today, 56% likelihood of Bitcoin reserve appeared first on CryptoSlate.
