Market conditions maintain Bitcoin within the $100k to $110k range, with bulls looking for a trigger.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a “waiting game,” fluctuating between $100,000 and $110,000, with analysts emphasizing the necessity for a macro catalyst to surpass the upper limit of the channel.

The most recent “Bitfinex Alpha” report observed reduced spot activity, diminished taker-buy flow, and profit-taking from wallets that acquired Bitcoin below $80,000 in April as factors contributing to the consolidation phase.

The report pointed out declines in spot volume and a weaker demand for futures as indicators that the rally from the April 9 low of $74,634 has stalled. Data from exchanges revealed $58.6 million in long liquidations and $65.2 million in short liquidations within a 24-hour period, eliminating leverage on both sides.

Open interest in perpetual and dated contracts fell by 7.2% to 334,000 BTC, suggesting forced position reductions and a more streamlined derivatives environment.

The report highlighted that June aligns with the conclusion of a historically robust second quarter, with the average return during this timeframe since 2013 being nearly 27%. In contrast, the third quarter averages only 6%, frequently exhibiting tighter ranges.

Support levels between $94,000 and $99,000 continue to draw bids, supported by the realized price of short-term holders, which is now approaching $98,779.

Traders intervened when the spot price dropped to $98,579 on June 22, pushing the pair up to $108,250 after geopolitical tensions subsided.

The report characterized the current situation as a “waiting game” where bulls and bears are in equilibrium until new demand emerges, likely from exchange-traded fund flows during US trading hours.

Macro drivers under watch

Nicolai Søndergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, identified Federal Reserve policy as the key variable. He mentioned that the market is likely to respond favorably once the Fed announces rate cuts, noting that risk assets require cheaper funding and improved liquidity to draw in new capital.

Søndergaard monitors liquidation heat maps and institutional wallet indicators to assess whether significant buyers are accumulating or remaining on the sidelines.

Bitfinex Alpha supported this perspective, stating that exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows need to increase and global liquidity must expand before Bitcoin can breach the upper boundary of its two-month range.

In the absence of deeper cash allocations, spot bids diminish near $110,000, and sellers limit the price by reducing their positions.

Nonetheless, the report indicated no imminent breakdown as long as critical support levels are maintained and structural positioning remains favorable.

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