La demanda de Bitcoin está en aumento, pero los comerciantes están forzando mecánicamente la estabilidad: Este es el precio exacto en el que se rompe la represa.

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $96,000, with spot ETF inflows and options market positioning creating opposing mechanical influences on price movements.

The existing price is just outside a range of about $90,000 to $94,000, a band that has remained intact despite occasional spikes and drops in spot demand through Bitcoin exchange-traded funds listed in the US.

Bitcoin price range Dec – Jan (Source: TradingView)

A breakout above $94,000 to a peak of $97,800 in intraday trading is encouraging for those who believe Bitcoin has completed its four-year cycle. However, the critical question remains whether this signals the onset of a new bull market or a false breakout prompted by short-term macro factors.

ETF inflows surge as Bitcoin tests a new high range

As reported by Farside Investors, net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $840.6 million on January 14, following $753.8 million from the previous session.

This brought the total inflows since January 8 to approximately $1.06 billion, despite experiencing two significant outflow days earlier in the timeframe.

At current spot levels, this equates to about 11,000 BTC in net creations over five sessions, a demand scale that would typically exert upward pressure on price in less restricted circumstances.

So far, the options market structure has absorbed much of that impulse.

Data from CryptoGamma indicates that aggregate dealer positioning is in a net-long gamma configuration, with estimated net gamma around +386,000 at a spot price near $96,800.

In such scenarios, dealer hedging activity often dampens realized volatility by mechanically selling during upward movements and purchasing during declines, thereby reinforcing range-bound behavior around heavily traded strike levels.

CryptoGamma’s model identifies nearby reference levels around $96,000 on the upside and $94,000 on the downside.

It also highlights a lower inflection point near $91,500 should the spot price drop below the current range.

Volatility metrics support the notion of compression.

The seven-day realized volatility is around 32% annualized, closely aligned with at-the-money implied volatility of about 33%.

When translated into daily terms, this indicates typical movements of approximately 1.7%, or around $1,600 at current prices, consistent with recent activity.

The proximity of realized and implied metrics reflects a market anticipating stability rather than acceleration, even as spot flows occasionally spike.

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Why Bitcoin is staying range-bound despite strong ETF inflows

The interplay of these forces helps clarify why Bitcoin’s price movements have seemed subdued despite substantial ETF inflows.

While ETF creations generate genuine spot demand, long gamma positioning serves as a counterbalance, absorbing flows unless they arrive with adequate persistence or coincide with a change in options exposure as contracts roll or expire.

The outcome is a market that may appear tranquil by design, not due to a lack of interest.

Flow data highlights that the ETF demand has not been consistent.

Following net outflows of $398.8 million on January 8 and $250.0 million on January 9, inflows resumed sporadically, with $116.7 million on January 12 before accelerating mid-week.

This trend suggests burst-driven demand rather than a continuous allocation wave, increasing the likelihood that the price remains constrained while dealer gamma remains positive.

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Macro timing adds another layer to the near-term setup

The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in January is set to conclude on January 28, according to the Fed’s schedule.

Markets are concentrating on the rate trajectory for 2026 in light of differing forecasts from major banks and increased scrutiny on monetary policy communication.

Additionally, the New York Fed has announced plans for over $55 billion in liquidity operations between mid-January and mid-February.

These elements are significant because long gamma regimes typically suppress volatility until interrupted by either sustained directional flow or an external reassessment of risk.

Consecutive sessions of robust ETF inflows combined with spot acceptance above the upper limit of the current range could diminish the stabilizing impact of dealer hedging.

Conversely, a series of ETF outflows or a macro-driven risk-off event could coincide with gamma decay, exposing lower levels where hedging flows reverse direction.

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For now, the balance remains intact

Bitcoin’s price dynamics illustrate a market where structural forces are performing much of the work, with ETF demand testing the upper limits of a range that options positioning continues to support.

Bitcoin price range Nov – Jan (Source: TradingView)

The next significant move may hinge on whether flow persistence or positioning dynamics shift first.

Will the breakout create sustained pressure to overcome the options pressure, or will it fail to confirm the move and risk retreating to test liquidation levels around $91,000 once more?

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