Key market maker discreetly sold 1,213 BTC on Binance amid New Year’s Eve low liquidity.

Wintermute encountered criticism for two recent incidents: offloading Bitcoin onto Binance during the low liquidity of New Year's Eve, followed by a rush to acquire coins, which seemed to be urgent buying ahead of the Fed announcement on Jan. 2.

The allegations suggest a scenario of coordinated manipulation: selling into weakness and repurchasing at a lower price. On-chain data substantiates the first claim, but not the latter.

The information originates from blockchain transaction records, rather than from exchange order books. Each analyzed flow involves addresses identified by Arkham as belonging to Wintermute on one side and Binance hot wallets on the other.

This approach captures custody transfers between the market maker and the exchange but does not provide insight into what occurs within Binance's matching engine. A Bitcoin deposit could prompt immediate market sell orders or remain idle as inventory.

The blockchain records movement, not intent.

On-chain data verifies the Dec. 31 dump

On Dec. 31, 2025, Wintermute transferred 1,518.6 BTC to Binance while withdrawing only 305.5 BTC, resulting in a net deposit of 1,213 BTC, valued at approximately $107 million at that day’s prices near $88,000.

The timing coincided with traditionally low-liquidity periods.

The largest transfers occurred at 06:43 UTC (148.5 BTC) and 18:10 UTC (443 BTC), hours when Western markets are closed, and Asian trading desks are winding down. Bitcoin fell from $92,000 on Dec. 30 to drop below $90,000 on Dec. 31, reaching a low near $91,500 that evening.

Wintermute's most significant deposits bracket the intraday low.

Wintermute deposited more Bitcoin into Binance than it withdrew over three consecutive days, with Jan. 2 showing the highest bidirectional flow.

The trend continued beyond New Year's Eve. On Jan. 1, 2026, Wintermute transferred another 1,559.2 BTC to Binance while retrieving 935.1 BTC, resulting in a net deposit of 624 BTC, approximately $55 million.

On Jan. 2, the flow persisted: 1,631.7 BTC deposited, 814.4 BTC withdrawn, for a net 817 BTC added to the exchange. Over three consecutive days, Wintermute deposited 2,654 BTC to Binance and withdrew 2,055 BTC, leaving around 600 BTC on the exchange’s infrastructure.

This directional flow reinforces the dumping allegation in terms of both magnitude and timing.

Wintermute transferred a significant amount of Bitcoin to Binance precisely when liquidity diminishes and price pressure intensifies. Whether the firm executed immediate sales or staged inventory for gradual distribution remains unclear from blockchain data alone.

However, the custody transfers themselves indicate clear selling pressure in vulnerable market conditions.

Accumulation thesis disproved

The second allegation that Wintermute urgently accumulated Bitcoin on Jan. 2 falls apart under examination of the same on-chain records.

Across 14 transaction datasets spanning 05:15 to 17:55 UTC on Jan. 2, Wintermute received 2,091.8 BTC from external counterparties (including WBTC on Ethereum) and dispatched 2,509.7 BTC.

The firm concluded the day with 418 BTC, a decrease from its initial amount. This reflects net distribution, not accumulation.

The hourly breakdown displays classic two-sided market-making rather than directional purchasing. Wintermute showed net inflows during early-morning sessions and again around 09:00 and 13:00-14:00 UTC, totaling approximately 590 BTC in positive flow.

However, those accumulation periods were overshadowed by net outflows concentrated at 10:00, 15:00, and into 17:00 UTC, where combined distributions surpassed 1,000 BTC. The cumulative position traced a sawtooth pattern, consisting of alternating buying and selling, ending significantly below zero.

Urgent accumulation typically results in a steep upward trajectory, and Wintermute's Jan. 2 activity yielded the opposite.

Binance absorbed the largest net outflow from Wintermute on Jan. 2, while smaller exchanges like Gate and Crypto.com provided net inflows.

Counterparty analysis bolsters this interpretation. Wintermute withdrew BTC from Gate, Crypto.com, Bullish, Bitfinex, KuCoin, and Bybit, exchanges that reported net inflows.

However, Binance alone absorbed 933 BTC of net deposits from Wintermute that day, far exceeding the inflows from other venues.

When netted across all tagged exchange addresses in the datasets, Wintermute's CEX flows remained almost flat, with only minor single-digit BTC net movement. The majority of the 418 BTC reduction stemmed from outflows to unlabeled addresses not clearly identified as exchanges or DeFi protocols.

The gross turnover of 4,600 BTC indicates intense trading activity. Yet, turnover reflects velocity, not direction. A market maker rotating inventory across venues to seize spreads generates identical volume signatures to a trader accumulating a position.

The distinction lies in net flows. Wintermute's Jan. 2 net flows unmistakably indicate distribution rather than accumulation.

What on-chain data can and cannot demonstrate

Three limitations restrict the conclusions that can be derived from blockchain records.

First, the datasets only capture addresses identified as Wintermute or specific exchanges, and activity involving untagged wallets is not visible.

Second, on-chain transfers timestamp custody changes, not trades. A BTC deposit on Dec. 31 could remain untraded for days or execute instantly. The blockchain cannot differentiate.

Third, the analysis omits activity on other networks and synthetic BTC products. Hedges through CME futures, perpetual swaps on offshore exchanges, or BTC-collateralized debt positions would not be reflected in spot BTC or WBTC transaction logs.

Within these constraints, the data establishes clear facts. Wintermute deposited a significant amount of Bitcoin to Binance during year-end low-liquidity periods, with continued net deposits through Jan. 2.

This directional flow aligns with selling pressure during vulnerable market conditions.

The timing, scale, and persistence over three consecutive days support the Dec. 31 dumping allegation, although order book data would be necessary to confirm actual execution.

The Jan. 2 purchasing allegation finds no backing in the same records. Wintermute concluded that trading session with 418 BTC less than it began, evidencing a net reduction rather than accumulation.

The firm turned over a substantial volume but ended with less Bitcoin, not more, a behavior consistent with active market-making.

Transaction patterns illustrate inventory rotation across venues, not frantic buying.

The divide between blockchain transparency and order book opacity allows for competing narratives. On-chain data confirms Wintermute moved large Bitcoin positions onto exchanges during stressed market conditions.

Whether that signifies manipulation or market-making depends on execution strategies that are not visible to blockchain observers.

The Dec. 31 flows merit examination, while the Jan. 2 flows do not support the accumulation narrative.

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