If Bitcoin remains around $67,000, it will surpass the Power Law threshold by mid-December.

Bitcoin has until the year’s conclusion to rebound, or the Power Law will be rendered ineffective.

The Power Law model does not serve as a prophecy. It is a time-dependent regression that considers Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory as a power curve, with discussions about a “deadline” focusing on an ascending floor. Moreover, this lower band increases daily, irrespective of the price.

If Bitcoin remains stagnant or declines throughout the autumn, that floor will eventually align with the price, resulting in the first significant breach of a model that has persisted throughout the asset’s history.

As of mid-February 2026, Newhedge’s live Power Law tracker indicates the main trendline is approximately $121,733, while the floor is around $51,128.

Bitcoin is trading at about $67,000 at the time of reporting, significantly above the floor but still well below the trendline.

The floor is not fixed. Since the model is based on the time elapsed since Bitcoin’s genesis block on January 3, 2009, and increases roughly to the power of 5.8, the floor ascends by approximately 0.093% each day, equating to about $47 daily at current prices.

By October 1, the floor is expected to be around $62,700. By October 31, it will reach approximately $64,400. By the end of the year, it is projected to hit $68,000.

This implies that if Bitcoin remains stable near $67,000 throughout the autumn, the floor will catch up by mid-December. Any significant drop below the mid-$60,000s in the fourth quarter would lead to a “first break” narrative.

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The model in plain English

The Bitcoin Power Law series of charts aligns the asset’s long-term price trajectory with a power curve over time, often depicted as a straight line on a log-log graph.

Newhedge presents it as a long-term log-log power-law model, attributing it to astrophysicist Giovanni Santostasi, with prices increasing roughly to the power of 5.8 over time.

Most variations are not single lines but corridors. A central regression signifies “trend” or “fair value,” while parallel upper and lower boundaries serve as “resistance” and “support.”

Santostasi describes his Power Law Theory as an effort to characterize Bitcoin as a scale-invariant growth system, asserting that it is scientific and falsifiable.

This framing is significant. If the model is falsifiable, it requires a pre-defined rule, such as a weekly close below the floor for a certain number of weeks. Without such a rule, any breach can be disregarded as noise.

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Why October matters

The October deadline serves as shorthand for the tightening of time.

Since the model is time-dependent, the floor rises daily even if Bitcoin remains inactive. This transforms sideways markets into a countdown narrative. By late October, the floor will enter the mid-$60,000s.

Any prolonged price action below that threshold creates a clear headline: “Bitcoin breaks Power Law floor for the first time.”

However, a floor breach would not “invalidate Bitcoin.” It would invalidate a specific parameterization, such as the site, bands, and data source.

It would indicate a regime change concerning the historical fit, suggesting slower growth than the long-term curve indicates. Additionally, it would provide critics with a clear narrative. Log-log regressions can appear stable in-sample but may be statistically fragile.

Amdax’s Tim Stolte has been a widely circulated critic on these grounds, contending that power-law fits to Bitcoin are spurious correlations influenced by sample window sensitivity.

A 4-to-6% decline from current levels, sufficient to touch or breach a mid-$60,000 floor, is not unusual. It is typical volatility. One-month at-the-money implied volatility on Bitcoin was recently around 51.77% on February 10.

Deribit’s DVOL explainer offers a guideline for converting annualized volatility to the expected daily movement: divide by the square root of 365, approximately 19. This translates to anticipated single-day fluctuations in the mid-single-digit percentage range.

A sudden risk-off episode could easily drive Bitcoin into the low $60,000s or lower.

Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer has publicly identified approximately $65,000 as a “line in the sand” level, referencing power-law-style trend framing. This helps the narrative feel less like crypto numerology and more like a widely observed psychological level that coincidentally aligns with the model’s ascending floor.

When institutional voices highlight the same range, the model’s band becomes a self-fulfilling coordination point.

Chart illustrates Bitcoin’s Power Law floor ascending toward the current price, projected to reach $64,400 by late October 2026.

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Three scenarios for the fourth quarter

There are three possible scenarios for the fourth quarter.

The first is the “chop is dangerous” perspective. Even if Bitcoin remains flat, the floor rises toward it. Each week of consolidation reduces the buffer. By late October, the cushion entirely vanishes if the price stays near current levels.

The second is the “volatility makes breaks plausible” perspective. Monthly move magnitudes in the mid-teens are typical given the current implied volatility. A 4-to-6% decline is not an outlier event.

If Bitcoin experiences a gap down due to a macro surprise or accelerated ETF outflows, the floor will be tested immediately.

The third is the “mainstream anchor” perspective. The mid-$60,000s consistently appear not only in power-law charts but also in institutional commentary. This establishes the zone as a coordination point.

When enough participants regard a level as significant, it becomes significant through reflexivity.

The model overlooks drivers, yet drivers dictate where Bitcoin trades within the channel. Two factors are most critical: ETF flow regime and risk-off volatility spikes.

Bitcoin has recently been trading in an environment where discussions about ETF demand are either cooling or reversing. US spot Bitcoin ETFs fueled the rally from late 2023 through early 2024, but flows have since moderated.

If outflows accelerate or inflows stagnate, the marginal bid weakens.

Moreover, recent sharp downward movements have been linked to broader risk sentiment, such as equity market stress, inflation surprises, and geopolitical shocks.

These are precisely the conditions that create “gap risk” relative to a smooth trendline. The power-law model assumes continuous compounding. Actual markets exhibit discontinuities.

Bitcoin’s current 31% cushion above the Power Law floor diminishes to zero by mid-December if the price remains unchanged.

What a break would mean

A floor breach would not “invalidate Bitcoin.” It would invalidate a specific parameterization, indicate a regime change compared to the historical fit, or provide critics with a clear narrative.

Log-log regressions can appear stable in-sample but are statistically fragile. They are susceptible to spurious correlation risk, sensitivity to sample window, and overfitting.

Nonetheless, the debate is becoming scientific once more.

A recent academic preprint from February 2026 concurs that the Bitcoin price is approximately power-law-in-time but identifies a different slope, roughly 4.2, based on data from 2011 to February 2026.

The paper posits that “activity-warped time,” which adjusts the time axis for volatility and transaction volume, enhances fit and out-of-sample performance. Even supportive research acknowledges parameter instability.

The power-law model is not incorrect. It serves as a first-order approximation that evolves as the system matures.

Date	Power Law Floor (proj.)	BTC level that would avoid a floor break (≈ floor)	Cushion if BTC = $67,000 (USD / %)	Headline risk tag
Now (mid-Feb 2026)	$51,128	$51,128	+$15,872 / +31.1%	Low
Oct 1, 2026	$62,700	$62,700	+$4,300 / +6.9%	Medium
Oct 31, 2026	$64,400	$64,400	+$2,600 / +4.0%	High
Mid-Dec 2026 (catch-up under flat BTC)	~$67,000	~$67,000	$0 / 0.0%	High
Dec 31, 2026	$68,000	$68,000	–$1,000 / –1.5%	High

What to watch

Distance-to-floor, updated weekly, is the most straightforward tracker. It should be clearly defined whether “break” refers to a wick, a daily close, or a weekly close.

The volatility regime is significant: if implied volatility rises, the likelihood of a floor tag increases mechanically. ETF flow headlines and macro risk-off events are the “why now” factors that could drive prices into the testing range.

Disagreement regarding the model itself is also worth monitoring. Different parameterizations yield different floors.
Some utilize the genesis block as the starting point. Others anchor to the first exchange price. Some adjust annually, while others maintain fixed parameters.

These decisions lead to meaningful divergence. A breach on one chart may not appear on another.
The October deadline is not a prophecy. It is a mechanical outcome of a time-based regression. The floor rises daily.

If Bitcoin remains stagnant or declines, the floor will catch up. By late October, the cushion will vanish.

Whether this is significant depends on whether one believes the model possesses predictive capability or is merely a curve-fitted historical artifact. Regardless, the upcoming eight months will provide a clear test.

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