Hodl or cash out? Bitcoin bear market began at $126k

No one can predict the future with certainty, but if Bitcoin continues to follow its historical patterns, it seems we may have already hit the peak.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high on October 6, but it was unable to maintain that momentum as the post-halving timeline approaches the peak area observed in previous cycles.

The 2024 halving is scheduled for April 20, and past peaks occurred approximately 526 days after the 2016 halving and 546 days following the 2020 halving.

Based on this timing, the peak window for the current cycle is likely from mid-October to late November.

Bitcoin cycle timings (Source: TradingView)

The October 6 figure near $126,200 has yet to be reclaimed, with spot trading fluctuating between $105,000 and $114,000, and significant support at around $108,000.

Bitcoin support and resistance levels (Source: TradingView)

The timing scenario now coincides with a notable macro shock.

Following the all-time high, the White House introduced a new tariff package on Chinese imports, which includes rates of up to 100 percent on select goods. This announcement impacted the crypto market as futures experienced approximately $19 billion in liquidations within a single day.

Derivatives positioning has also changed, with increased demand for downside protection following the sell-off. Funding pressures on the traditional side have also surfaced, as Reuters reported a significant rise in the use of the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility, indicating that short-term dollar funding has tightened during this period.

The flow tape is the immediate arbiter. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have acted as the cycle’s marginal buyer. Farside Investors provides consolidated daily creations and redemptions, allowing for a quick assessment of whether cash is flowing into or out of the wrapper.

Weekly fund flow insights are provided by CoinShares, which monitors broader digital-asset products. A prolonged series of net inflows would keep the possibility open for a late-cycle marginal high.

A volatile or negative trend would bolster the argument that October 6 marked the cycle’s peak.

A scenario framework aids in translating these inputs into prices and timelines.

Historical bear markets in Bitcoin lasted approximately 12 to 18 months and saw declines of about 57 percent in 2018 and 76 percent in 2014 from peak to trough, a trend documented by NYDIG.

The current market structure includes spot ETFs and more extensive derivatives markets, so a lower range of 35 to 55 percent is a reasonable benchmark for managing downside risk. When applied to $126,272, this produces trough levels of approximately $82,000 to $57,000.

This timeline suggests a potential low between late 2026 and early 2027, which aligns broadly with the halving cycle mentioned earlier.

The likelihood that a peak has already occurred increases when timing, macro factors, and flow all align in the same direction. The halving clock is late in the typical range.

The tariff shock has created real-economy uncertainty and a noticeable risk premium in derivatives. Repo facility usage has surged, indicating tighter dollar liquidity.

Bitcoin’s price has struggled to stay above the early October high and now trades below initial support. The onus is on demand, with the ETF tape serving as the clearest daily metric.

Some believe that the conventional Bitcoin cycle concluded with the introduction of ETFs; however, new demand has not historically disrupted the cyclical pattern. Will it truly do so now?

So far, each Bitcoin cycle has yielded diminishing returns. If $126,000 is indeed the peak for this cycle, that would represent an 82% increase.

From prior top → new top	Previous ATH ($)	New ATH ($)	% gain from prior top
2011 → 2013	31	1,177	3,696.8%
2013 → 2017	1,177	19,783	1,580.8%
2017 → 2021	19,783	69,000	248.6%
2021 → 2025 (assumed)	69,000	126,000	82.6%

The initial decline (Cycle 1→2) experienced returns decrease by approximately 57%.

The subsequent decline (Cycle 2→3) showed another reduction of about 84%.

If that rate of decline had continued proportionately (around 70–80% less each cycle), the anticipated return would have been roughly 50–70%, rather than 82%.

Thus, the potential 82% gain already signifies a slight decline compared to the exponential decay trend suggested by earlier cycles.

The relative return of this cycle is above the trend, potentially indicating a maturing yet resilient cycle, even if this is indeed the peak.

Cycle Transition	Previous Gain (%)	Next Gain (%)	Falloff Ratio	% Retained from Prior Cycle
2011–2013 → 2013–2017	3,696.8	1,580.8	0.43	43%
2013–2017 → 2017–2021	1,580.8	248.6	0.16	16%
2017–2021 → 2021–2025	248.6	82.6	0.33	33%

While historical returns illustrate a clear decay curve, this cycle’s potential 82% gain slightly deviates from the expected downward trajectory, indicating either the onset of a slower decay phase or structural changes (e.g., ETF demand, institutional capital) that are moderating the long-term diminishing-return trend.

The contrary case necessitates a specific sequence.

A stretch of five to ten days of broad net creations across the ETF sector would indicate sustained cash demand.

Options skew would need to revert toward calls for more than a temporary rebound, a change that third-party dashboards like Laevitas could reveal.

Spot prices would then need to surpass and maintain above $126,272 with increasing volume.

Such a trajectory could lead to a marginal new high in the $135,000 to $155,000 range before distribution resumes, a pattern reflected in our previous cycle analyses.

Bitcoin’s cycle clock points to a final high by late October, will ETFs rewrite history?

If those conditions fail to materialize by the end of the conventional 518 to 580-day period, time itself becomes a hindrance.

Miners offer another forward indicator. Post-halving revenue per unit of hash has contracted, and fee share has moderated from spring peaks, which tightens cash flow for older fleets. The economics and turnover dynamics of the fleet are tracked by Hashrate Index.

If prices decline while energy costs remain elevated, periodic selling by miners to cover operational expenses and debt obligations may occur. That added supply tends to meet thin order books following shocks. On-chain valuation metrics such as MVRV and MVRV-Z help frame late-cycle risks, although absolute thresholds vary by cycle and should not be relied upon in isolation.

Macro carries its own scoreboard.

The trajectory of the dollar interacts with risk appetite, and Reuters FX wraps provide ongoing insights into relative strength. Rate expectations are monitored by CME FedWatch, which assists in interpreting whether the tariff shock and subsequent inflationary pressures are altering policy trajectories.

If easing expectations diminish while repo facility usage remains high, liquidity for speculative assets may remain constrained.

Readers can follow the framework outlined in the table below.

Scenario	Conditions to watch	Plausible path	Price range and timing	What invalidates
Top already in	ETF flows flat to negative, put-heavy skew persists, and tighter dollar liquidity.	Sideways distribution 94k to 122k, then breakdown on repeated closes below ~108k	Drawdown 35% to 55% from ATH, trough 82k to 57k, 12–18 months	Five to ten straight days of broad ETF inflows, skew flips call-heavy, decisive close above $126,272
Late marginal high	Multi-session ETF creations, calmer trade headlines, softer dollar.	Quick push through ATH, failure on second attempt, reversion to range	135k to 155k in Q4, then mean reversion	Return of outflows and persistent put demand
Extended top-building	Mixed ETF flows, contained volatility, macro noise persists	Range trades between 100k and 125k through late November, time-based top	Second attempt deferred to early 2026, then distribution	Strong, sustained net creations or a clean breakout with volume

The leverage profile suggests a need for patience. Traders added downside hedges following the tariff shock rather than pursuing upside. This aligns with a market that appears more focused on capital preservation than momentum.

If ETF inflows do not quickly resume, dealer hedging flows from put buying can keep rallies in check. However, if inflows do pick up, the structure can shift rapidly, which is why daily monitoring of the tape is crucial.

None of this undermines the structural demand for Bitcoin created by the ETF wrapper or the long-term impact of a fixed supply. It highlights the late-cycle setup that is now under macro pressure. The halving timer is nearing the end of its historical window.

The October 6 high remains the price to beat. Until flows alter the balance, the distribution case remains the clearer interpretation.

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