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Numerous figures in the cryptocurrency space have indicated that Alt Season may be approaching.
For instance, in a recent tweet, Ash WSB outlined a four-phase trajectory toward “FULL BLOWN ALTSEASON.”
This path begins with Bitcoin stabilizing around $30,000, followed by capital flowing into Ethereum — which has recorded a 9.7% increase in the past 24 hours, reaching $2,130 to achieve a 48-week peak.
The third phase occurs when other “large caps experience parabolic growth” due to the influx of funds from Ethereum. Ultimately, Alt Season commences when the gains of large-cap assets begin to spread to the broader market.
At this stage, every cryptocurrency experiences a surge regardless of its fundamentals — generating excitement and indicating the onset of Alt Season, according to Ash WSB.
It is important to highlight that there is no universally accepted definition of Alt Season. However, as mentioned earlier, it is typically recognized by altcoins exhibiting explosive gains.
Nevertheless, Blockchain Center — through its Altcoin Season Index — has established an objective definition of Alt Season.
Alt season
As per Blockchain Center, Alt Season is defined as the period when at least 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies are outperforming Bitcoin over a continuous three-month period.
“If 75% of the Top 50 coins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last season (90 days), it is Altcoin Season. Stablecoins (Tether, DAI…) and asset-backed tokens (WBTC, stETH, cLINK,…) are excluded from the Top 50.”
The current performance over the past 90 days for the top 50 indicates that only 9 coins/tokens are surpassing the market leader — XRP, ADA, FTM, RPL, SOL, DOGE, LTC, XLM, and ETH.
According to Blockchain Center’s criteria, an additional 29 coins/tokens must outperform Bitcoin before Alt Season can be officially declared.
Source: blockchaincenter.net
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By indexing this information, Blockchain Center has assigned a current score of 14 — firmly within Bitcoin Season — indicating unfavorable conditions for those anticipating the swift onset of Alt Season.
The chart below shows that the last Alt Season took place between early August 2022 and mid-September 2022.
Source: blockchaincenter.net
How are things looking?
Bitcoin dominance reached 48.9% of the market on April 11. The rejection at this level has resulted in a downward trend — implying that Phase 1 of Alt Season is in progress.
However, the 47% range represents significant support and should be monitored before concluding Phase 1.
Source: BTC.D on TradingView.com
Ethereum dominance is currently rising due to the recent Shanghai upgrade. This may provide sufficient momentum to prevent substantial outflows to other large-cap cryptocurrencies.
The chart below indicates that ETH.D is on the verge of testing the 20.4% resistance level — a breakthrough above this point would maintain Alt Season in Phase 2.
Source: ETH.D on TradingView.com
Nonetheless, total market cap inflows are increasing. The past week saw an additional $108 billion (+9%) added to the overall market cap. Similarly, year-to-date total market gains reached $488 billion, bringing the total to $1.28 trillion (+61%) — a level not observed since May 2022, prior to the Terra collapse.
This suggests that the cryptocurrency market has rebounded from the contagion event.
The post Here’s why alt season may be on the horizon appeared first on CryptoSlate.
