Groundhog Day for Bitcoin signals another six weeks of macro winter if core flows remain significantly negative.

Groundhog Day for Bitcoin: another six weeks of macro winter?

Bitcoin experienced its own Groundhog Day moment today as Punxsutawney Phil “saw his shadow” on the 140th anniversary of the event, indicating six more weeks of winter, coinciding with BTC‘s drop to $74,000 in a swift risk-off movement.

This alignment was apt: a mix of forced liquidations, ETF outflows, and increasing real yields indicated that crypto might be facing an extended period of macro chill and heightened volatility leading into the March FOMC.

Satirical Bitcoin Groundhog Day announcement framed with verified Bitcoin metrics

Related Reading

Bitcoin price today rebounds after 11% weekend drop as global markets open with optimistic sentiment

Bitcoin approaches a 9-month low as significant ETF outflows and a hawkish Fed trap weekend dip buyers.

Feb 2, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has slightly recovered to around $77,500 as a selloff in cross-asset risk meets the continuous market structure of crypto.

Total crypto liquidations exceeded $2 billion over the weekend, with over $800 million occurring in just the last 24 hours.

The key takeaway for the upcoming weeks is that Bitcoin continues to act like leveraged risk exposure when the discount rate and the dollar quickly adjust.

This situation serves as another stress test for the “digital gold” narrative, particularly when gold performs better during risk-off periods while Bitcoin aligns more with long-duration risk.

Related Reading

Bitcoin just failed its biggest ‘digital gold' test, and the reason why should have every investor deeply worried

Despite the notable sell-off, long-term forecasts remain steadfast with Bitcoin expected to reach $185,500 before the quarter concludes.

Jan 19, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo

ETF flows and liquidation dynamics

Flows have provided a clear, daily insight into marginal demand.

Farside Investors’ ETF totals indicate consistent large net outflows into late January, including several days that eliminated hundreds of millions of dollars of spot demand in a single session.

This is significant because when ETFs are redeeming, dips do not receive the same mechanical bid. Any liquidation cascade can also extend further in thinner order books.

Date (2026)	US spot BTC ETF total net flow (US$m)
Jan. 16	-394.7
Jan. 21	-708.7
Jan. 29	-817.8
Jan. 30	-509.7

Macro anchors were also moving against duration-sensitive assets during that timeframe.

Trading Economics reported the U.S. 10-year nominal yield around 4.24–4.26% at the Jan. 30 close. StreetStats indicated the 10-year TIPS real yield around 1.93% at the same reference time.

In practice, that level of real yield tends to elevate the hurdle rate for assets valued on future adoption or liquidity conditions. It also tightens the range for speculative leverage to persist without periodic resets.

Macro reference (Jan. 30 close)	Level
U.S. 10-year nominal yield	~4.24–4.26%
U.S. 10-year real yield (TIPS)	~1.93%

Uncertainty around policy regimes has been part of the repricing narrative.

Discussions surrounding Kevin Warsh and Federal Reserve leadership contribute to a heightened risk premium across markets linked to perceptions of Fed independence and the inflation trajectory.

Crypto often expresses that uncertainty more intensely because leverage is easier to implement. Liquidity also diminishes outside U.S. hours, and liquidations become automatic once collateral thresholds are breached.

Thus, liquidations should be viewed as the transmission mechanism rather than the underlying cause.

Macro repricing determines the direction. Prices then decline into thinner liquidity, liquidations introduce additional supply, and the movement continues.

Related Reading

Federal Reserve to abandon ‘boring' FOMC language, ending dovish vs hawkish analysis?

We are about to witness what occurs when the Federal Reserve replaces dull conservatism with Trump-era populist rhetoric.

Feb 1, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

What to monitor leading into the March FOMC

For the “six more weeks” perspective, the most actionable checklist is whether the marginal bid returns before the next significant policy milestone.

In a 2- to 6-week timeframe:

1. Sustained ETF inflows would represent the clearest mechanical shift. This means not just a single green day, but a series that counters the late-January pace of redemptions.
2. Whether real yields decrease from the ~2% range, which would alleviate discount-rate pressure on risk assets.
3. Whether implied volatility mean-reverts after the flush. Deribit’s DVOL index moved from approximately 37 to above 44 during the selloff week. A DVOL level slightly above 44 corresponds to an estimated 30-day expected move near ±13% using a common rule of thumb (annualized volatility divided by the square root of 12).

Related Reading

Bitcoin price today jumps after 11% weekend dump as global markets open with bullish intent

Bitcoin slides toward a 9 month low as massive ETF outflows and a hawkish Fed trap weekend dip buyers.

Feb 2, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

This leaves room for additional two-way price movement even if headlines cool down. Two scenarios arise from the same set of indicators.

• If ETF totals continue to be net negative across multiple sessions and real yields hover near recent levels, Bitcoin may maintain its role as leveraged risk beta into March. Rallies could be limited by redemption-driven supply and ongoing hedging demand in options.
• If ETF flows stabilize and macro conditions cease tightening at the margin, the post-liquidation reset can diminish forced-selling risk. This would enable spot demand to dictate the pace rather than cascades.

The calendar provides a clear endpoint for the Groundhog Day analogy. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is set for March 17–18, 2026.

The post Groundhog Day for Bitcoin means six more weeks of macro winter if core flows stay deep red appeared first on CryptoSlate.