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Gold is failing to function as a safe haven; what implications does this have for Bitcoin as “digital gold”?
In the past week, both Bitcoin and gold did not pass the safe-haven assessment. Bitcoin continues to trade more like a risk asset rather than as “digital gold,” while gold has also not functioned as a reliable geopolitical hedge, as rising yields and inflation concerns overshadowed the typical flight-to-safety demand.
At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin bounced back to approximately $70,508 after dipping to $67,436 earlier in the day, while gold was still attempting to recover from a much sharper decline, and the US 10-year Treasury yield remained above its Friday closing level after briefly reaching a new high.
This sequence altered the typical interpretation of a geopolitical shock. Investors did not swiftly move into traditional hedges. They first sold, adjusted for inflation and interest rates, and only later re-entered some risk positions after remarks regarding “productive” discussions with Iran and a five-day pause in strikes alleviated immediate anxiety.
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The last three trading sessions unfolded in three distinct phases.
Friday was characterized by inflation and yield adjustments. Bitcoin lingered around $70,272 after the previous day’s drop below $69,000, which was associated with prolonged Fed expectations and energy-driven inflation pressures.
During the weekend, escalating tensions between the US and Iran pushed Bitcoin back toward $68,000, resulting in the liquidation of over $240 million in long positions.
Monday then saw a relief reversal. Bitcoin traded within a broad intraday range from $67,436 to $71,696 before rising back above $70,000, linked to the market’s interpretation of Trump’s de-escalation statement.
Gold followed a similar overall pattern, though with greater damage
Barron’s report indicated that New York futures rose about 1.7% to $4,682.20 early Friday, yet were still on track for a weekly decline exceeding 7%, with front-month futures concluding the week near $4,570.40.
Today, gold is trading down toward approximately $4,100 to $4,260 intraday as the market concentrates on the inflation and yield shock stemming from oil.
Gold is not functioning as a reliable geopolitical hedge; it is trading like an asset caught between forced selling, heightened real-rate expectations, and opportunistic buying.
The macro pivot remains in rates. The 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.30% on Friday as oil strength and diminishing rate-cut expectations pushed yields higher.
Today, the 10-year yield reached 4.43%, the highest level since mid-2025. Following the Iran-talks headline, yields fell to about 4.31% before stabilizing near 4.386%. The inflation premium decreased, but did not vanish.
| Period | Bitcoin | Gold | US 10-year yield | Market read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, March 20 | Near $70,272 after stabilizing from a dip below $69,000 | Early futures near $4,682.20, week ended near $4,570.40 | Around 4.30% | Inflation and yield repricing |
| Weekend | Down toward $68,000 as long liquidations hit | Pressure carried into Monday open | Pressure building into Monday | Geopolitical risk-off |
| Monday, March 23 | Range of $67,436 to $71,696, now around $70,508 | Down toward $4,100 to $4,260 intraday, later around $4,286.10, with one rebound measure near $4,500 | High near 4.423% to 4.437%, later around 4.36% to 4.386% | Relief reversal after de-escalation comments |
Flows indicate where investors sought liquidity
The price movements alone were sufficient to weaken the previous “digital gold” narrative. US spot Bitcoin ETFs concluded the period from March 16 to March 20 in positive territory, but the trend worsened as the week progressed.
The daily flow table reveals net inflows of $199.4 million on March 16 and another $199.4 million on March 17, followed by net outflows of $163.5 million on March 18, $90.2 million on March 19, and $52.0 million on March 20. This resulted in a net positive for the week of approximately $93.1 million, yet the trend indicated weakening demand rather than strong accumulation.
This distinction aids in framing Bitcoin’s situation. ETF buyers did not disappear. Buying activity slowed, then reversed, as macro pressures returned and Bitcoin lost momentum heading into the weekend.
Monday’s recovery above $70,000 improved the immediate outlook, but it did not negate the preceding sequence.
Bitcoin continues to trade primarily as a high-beta macro asset, with any hedging behavior manifesting only in brief intervals.
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Gold ETF flows were weaker. The most reliable indexed US data for last week indicates a series of significant withdrawals from the largest gold funds.
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ETF.com reported IAU outflows of $554.66 million on March 17, while commodity ETFs overall lost $735.29 million that day.
On March 18, ETF.com noted GLD outflows of $414 million and IAU outflows of $387 million. On March 19, GLD outflows reached $760 million, and IAU outflows totaled $329 million.
This positions gold as the more revealing asset during this period. Bitcoin fluctuated, then recovered, and Bitcoin ETF flows for the week still ended slightly positive. Gold experienced more significant price damage and saw large holders redeeming during the downturn.
Investors seemed to utilize gold ETFs as a source of liquidity rather than viewing them as a preferred safe haven. This represents a significant shift, as gold typically holds a stronger default claim as a refuge during geopolitical turmoil.
The broader context remains important. Global gold ETFs attracted $5.3 billion in February, raising holdings to a record 4,171 tonnes. This indicates that the recent US outflow week did not follow a prolonged period of consistent global liquidation.
Following a robust prior backdrop, the reversal is even more notable. In other words, the selling pressure was substantial enough to overwhelm a market that had just recorded nine consecutive months of global inflows.
| ETF flow signal | Latest reading | What it suggests |
|---|---|---|
| BTC ETFs, March 16 | +$199 million | Strong demand at the start of the week |
| BTC ETFs, March 17 | +$199 million | Demand still firm before the macro turn intensified |
| BTC ETFs, March 18 | -$163 million | Reversal as macro pressure returned |
| BTC ETFs, March 19 | -$90 million | Outflows continued |
| BTC ETFs, March 20 | -$52 million | Third straight outflow day into the weekend |
| Gold ETFs, March 17 to 19 | Large GLD and IAU withdrawals across three sessions | Investors raised cash and reduced exposure |
The next move still hinges on yields, oil, and expectations
Monday’s rebound altered the trajectory, but it did not change the hierarchy of influencing factors.
The market remains more responsive to oil, inflation expectations, and rate pricing than to the traditional safe-haven labels associated with either asset.
The University of Michigan’s early-March chart indicated short-run inflation expectations rising from approximately 3.3% to 3.5% and long-run expectations increasing from about 3.1% to 3.3%, with one-year gasoline price expectations surging from around 10 cents to about 43 cents. These shifts help clarify why the inflation premium in yields remained elevated even after Monday’s relief bounce.
The Fed’s March projections still indicate only modest easing, with the median end-2026 fed-funds rate at 3.4% compared to a 2025 midpoint near 3.6%. This leaves little room for a rapid return to the type of declining real-yield environment that typically benefits both gold and Bitcoin.
The market can absorb one favorable geopolitical headline and still maintain a higher threshold for non-yielding assets if inflation risk persists in energy and rates.
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Oil remains central to this assessment. The latest EIA forecast suggested that Brent should remain above $95 for the next two months before dropping below $80 in the third quarter and approaching $70 by year-end, assuming disruptions subside.
If this trajectory holds, the pressure on real yields may ease, and the current selloff in hedges could appear as a temporary dislocation. If oil remains elevated for an extended period, the Monday rebound in both gold and Bitcoin may be viewed more as a relief trade than the beginning of a sustainable turnaround.
Published forecasts still provide both assets with potential for recovery, although the ranges are broad. A 2026 gold outlook indicated a gain of 5% to 15% in a shallow-slip scenario and 15% to 30% in a deeper risk situation, while a reflation scenario suggested a decline of 5% to 20%.
In the crypto space, an Investing.com report indicated that Citi reduced its 12-month Bitcoin target to $112,000 due to anticipated weaker ETF-driven demand and slower progress on US crypto legislation, while Standard Chartered cautioned that Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 before rebounding.
These ranges align with the current market structure. Downside risks are still linked to yields. Upside potential is contingent on more stable energy markets, steadier inflation readings, and renewed ETF demand.
Narrower projection than the old “digital gold” debate typically allows
Gold and Bitcoin both experienced declines as the market adjusted the returns available in yield-bearing assets and questioned the speed at which inflation would diminish.
Monday’s rebound demonstrated that both can still recover when fear subsides. It also indicated that traders were reacting to the possibility of de-escalation, rather than restoring either asset to automatic safe-haven status.
For the upcoming quarter, the clearest checkpoints are already apparent.
The 10-year Treasury yield needs to cease its upward trajectory. Oil must trend toward the lower path outlined by the EIA forecast.
Bitcoin ETF flows need to transition from three consecutive outflow sessions back toward sustained inflows. Gold must maintain a rebound without another wave of significant GLD and IAU withdrawals.
Until these conditions are met, the market continues to convey the same message it expressed from Friday through Monday: cash flow and explicit yield take precedence over narrative when inflation risk is on the rise.
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