Fidelity’s $203 million launch sets Ethereum’s tokenized bills on a path towards a $10 billion valuation by 2025.

As of September 12, 2025, tokenized U.S. Treasuries on public blockchains amount to $7.42 billion, with significant concentrations in Ethereum-linked issuances monitored by RWA.xyz.

Fidelity’s newly introduced OnChain share class adds to this institutional framework. The Fidelity Treasury Digital Fund’s OnChain Class, recorded on Ethereum as the Fidelity Digital Interest Token, currently shows approximately $203.7 million outstanding, with Bank of New York Mellon serving as custodian and two on-chain holders.

The fund’s SEC documentation outlines an OnChain class where the transfer agent maintains the official share register in book-entry format, while ownership is also documented on a public blockchain. According to RWA.xyz and fund filings, the portfolio allocates at least 99.5% to cash and U.S. Treasuries in compliance with Rule 2a-7.

Cross-sectional data illustrate where growth is occurring and the speed of accumulation. BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund is close to $2.20 billion. WisdomTree’s Government Money Market Digital Fund is around $832.3 million, reflecting an increase of about 40% over the past 30 days according to that tracker. Franklin Templeton’s on-chain U.S. government money fund is estimated at roughly $752.3 million.

Ondo’s short-term government bond fund is approximately $729.6 million, and its yield token USDY is about $690.4 million. Circle’s USYC stands at around $579.1 million. These offerings list Ethereum among their supported networks, along with rollups such as Base, Optimism, Arbitrum, and, in several instances, Solana, Avalanche, or Stellar.

On-chain treasuries flows (Source: rwa.xyz)

To reach $10 billion by the end of the year, the market requires approximately $2.58 billion in net additions from the current $7.42 billion base, translating to about $700 million monthly through December. The pool of traditional cash is substantial in relation to that target.

Total U.S. money market fund assets were reported at $7.26 trillion for the week ending September 3, according to the Investment Company Institute, indicating that a one-basis-point reallocation into tokenized Treasury funds would equate to about $726 million, while three basis points would amount to approximately $2.18 billion. Government funds constitute the majority of this category, establishing an addressable investor base that already possesses the underlying instruments.

The yield environment and on-chain logistics determine the run rate. As of September 10, three-month Treasury bill rates were at 3.94%, influencing income accrual across tokenized funds and driving demand for “on-chain dollars with yield.”

Regarding settlement costs, empirical analysis of Ethereum’s EIP-4844 indicates reduced data availability fees for rollups following the Dencun upgrade, which alleviates frictions associated with minting, transferring, and redeeming on L2 rails where numerous RWA tokens circulate, as noted by the Ethereum Foundation.

Distribution is as crucial as technology. Circle’s USDC smart contract off-ramp for BUIDL facilitates near-instant redemptions into stablecoins at any time.

USYC can now function as yield-bearing off-exchange collateral for Binance’s institutional clients through bank triparty or Ceffu custody, broadening non-trading use cases that maintain assets on-chain during derivatives activities. These processes enhance the attractiveness of tokenized cash instruments as collateral and treasury assets, rather than merely as passive holdings.

A base-case path to $10 billion by December

If the group encompassing BUIDL, WTGXX, BENJI, OUSG, and USYC grows by a combined 8% to 10% over the next three and a half months, this alone could contribute approximately $600 million to $800 million.

Incorporating a modest input from new or recently launched share classes like Fidelity’s OnChain Class and potential follow-ons from other managers would fulfill the remaining gap in the monthly cadence. According to RWA.xyz’s 30-day changes, some products are already compounding at rates that, even if they decelerate, support this run-rate.

A higher-range scenario of $10.8 billion to $11.5 billion presumes two additional brand entrants or significant mandate allocations in Q4 totaling $1.0 billion to $1.5 billion, alongside consistent net mints in existing funds.

The money-market base indicates that a two to three basis point flow from traditional products would sufficiently cover that range, should qualified purchasers and professional investors pursue on-chain settlement and 24/7 transferability, according to the ICI weekly series.

A lower-range outcome near $9.1 billion to $9.6 billion could occur if front-end yields decline toward 3.5% and on-chain mint activity slows, or if buyers of tokenized funds hesitate ahead of year-end.

Even in such a scenario, the investor infrastructure continues to strengthen, as share classes like Fidelity’s OnChain Class document ownership on-chain while adhering to money market regulations and custody standards, laying the foundation for future issuance.

The market is also consolidating on Ethereum from a network standpoint. RWA.xyz’s product listings highlight the leading vehicles available on Ethereum, many of which are also bridged to L2s. This positioning, along with collateral integrations and stablecoin redemption pathways, directs volume into Ethereum’s settlement layer even as more activity transitions to lower-cost rollups.

Key indicators to monitor as December approaches include three datapoints that will determine the outcome: on-chain holders and net mints on RWA.xyz’s tracker, new SEC filings for additional OnChain classes or series, and fresh collateral and custody arrangements that enable institutions to hold these tokens without compromising risk controls.

If net mints maintain a monthly pace of $600 million to $800 million, the tracker is projected to reach $10 billion on Ethereum before the year concludes.

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