Economist expresses strong assurance that the bull market is ongoing, anticipates a more stable super cycle.

Economist Alex Krüger dismissed worries regarding the conclusion of the crypto bull cycle, asserting that prevalent bearish sentiment presents a contrarian buying opportunity as markets gear up for recovery.

In a post on X dated Aug. 30, Krüger remarked that “most crypto charts now appear so broken and bearish that it is bullish,” referencing substantial long liquidations as proof of capitulation.

The economist adopted a bullish stance for the upcoming week after facing losses earlier in the trading session.

Krüger noted that the recent downturn in the market primarily impacted Bitcoin and Ethereum, while altcoins ceased their decline earlier in the session. He mentioned that such divergence frequently indicates forthcoming strength.

He stressed that ideal buying opportunities arise “when everyone is panicking, not when we are all celebrating.”

Krüger anticipates that market volatility will continue until the next Federal Reserve meeting, pointing out that a rate cut is not fully factored into current valuations. Despite potential downside risks, Krüger conveyed “extreme confidence that this is not the end of the cycle.”

No blow-off tops for now

When asked about the sustainability of the cycle without a blow-off top, Krüger elaborated on his “super cycle” theory. This concept envisions key assets progressing higher with “smaller dips and a lower slope” instead of typical manic surges followed by significant corrections.

Krüger does not foresee a blow-off top in 2025, citing inadequate conditions for major manic movements, except possibly for Solana due to rising demand.

Additionally, he predicted that changes in the Federal Reserve’s composition in 2026 could initiate the next significant bull market peak.

In contrast to bearish commentators who argue that excessive optimism needs to be tempered, Krüger evaluated the current sentiment as balanced, with both bullish and bearish viewpoints being fairly represented.

‘Statistical nonsense’

He dismissed the bearish seasonality of September as “statistical nonsense,” attributing it to pattern-seeking behavior rather than significant market conditions. He anticipates trading to alternate between long and short liquidations until Fed policy decisions establish a definitive trend.

While acknowledging that a 25 basis point cut would not surprise the markets, he questioned whether it could act as a catalyst that might trigger the blow-off top that many analysts foresee.

Krüger then pointed out options skew data showing puts trading at premiums to calls, reflecting fear-driven positioning. This technical setup, coupled with liquidation-induced selling pressure, creates circumstances that favor contrarian positioning.

The economist’s analysis indicates that the current market weakness signifies temporary volatility rather than a structural collapse, positioning the market for recovery as liquidation waves eliminate weak hands.

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