Does the Bitcoin Power Law model remain effective in 2025 following the shortcomings of S2F?

With S2F now behind us, the current power-law channel suggests that BTC is approximately 20% below its fair value, although ETF inflows could drive it to either end of the spectrum.

Bitbo’s application of Giovanni Santostasi’s model estimates the price at around $109,700, the fair value at approximately $136,100, the support level at about $48,300, and the resistance at near $491,800, which positions the ongoing cycle within an ascending corridor based on a power-law fit to price over time.

This channel is created by performing a linear regression of log(price) against log(time since genesis), then replicating that line in parallel to establish upper and lower bounds that have historically encompassed cyclical extremes.

The outcome is a time-based compounding curve with boundaries that rise as time progresses, rendering the model more of a location guide than a precise forecast.

Bitcoin Power Law (Source: BiTBO)

The fundamental assertion is straightforward to assess in real-time markets. Bitcoin is trading roughly 20 percent below the fair-value regression and more than double above the model’s lower limit, a mid-zone position that differs from previous cycle peaks and troughs when the price touched the channel’s resistance or support.

The parameterization utilized by BGeometrics represents the fair-value curve as P ≈ 1.0117×10^-17 × (days since genesis)^5.82, with a commonly cited floor at about 0.42 times the curve, which aligns with the current disparity between the spot price and Bitbo’s lower boundary.

This specification accounts for historical drawdowns while permitting late-cycle overextensions toward the upper band.

The rationale behind this method considers adoption as a power function of time and anticipates that volatility will diminish as the network matures, a characteristic that manifests as tightening oscillations around the regression line across successive cycles.

Bitcoin maintains its power-law trajectory as ETFs reshape the cycle

Recent inflows clarify why the price is situated in the channel’s middle rather than at an extreme. Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) attracted a record $5.95 billion in net inflows during the week ending October 4, 2025, with Bitcoin achieving an all-time high of approximately $126,000, alongside robust demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The subsequent two weeks demonstrated that inflows are not solely one-directional. CoinShares noted a shift to $3.17 billion in net inflows, followed by a reversal to $513 million in net outflows, including a single-week Bitcoin outflow of $946 million.

In just the last two days, $958 million has exited U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, with $290 million leaving BlackRock on October 30.

This pattern aligns with the power-law framework, where temporary demand spikes or gaps drive the price toward the upper or lower boundaries over weeks, while the long-term trajectory remains anchored to the time-based power curve. The October peaks were linked to the surge in ETF subscriptions, which now serve as a visible macro lever for crypto demand.

The pressing question is not whether the power-law structure remains valid, but rather where within the channel Bitcoin will trade in the next phase.

A base-case scenario maintains the price oscillating around the regression, currently near $136,100, with a reduced amplitude if the volatility decay characteristic holds.

A bull-case scenario would see ongoing ETF inflows and favorable macro conditions pushing the price toward the upper resistance, currently near $491,800, a level reached in previous cycles during late-stage rallies.

A bear-case situation could emerge from macro tightening, a regulatory shock, or ongoing ETF outflows that prompt a retest of the lower boundary near $48,300. This level has historically experienced capitulation wicks before reentering the channel.

These levels increase over time as the exponent on days since genesis compounds. The boundaries serve as directional guardrails, not fixed targets.

For those monitoring levels at a glance, the live model ranges are:

Measure	Level
Spot price	≈ $109,700
Fair-value regression	≈ $136,100
Support (floor band)	≈ $48,300
Resistance (upper band)	≈ $491,800

The discussion surrounding model selection is influenced by the decline of the once-popular Stock-to-Flow method.

PlanB’s S2F trajectory projected $98,000 by November 2021 and $135,000 by December 2021, targets that were not achieved.

The price subsequently remained below the S2F path for years, an out-of-sample failure that diminished confidence in using a univariate stock-to-flow ratio to establish deterministic targets.

Vitalik Buterin has criticized S2F for offering misleading precision, and numerous analysts have pointed out methodological flaws, including overfitting, the exclusion of demand and liquidity factors, and the treatment of halvings as step-wise valuation shifts that overlook market microstructure.

Institutional researchers continue to warn that S2F is not a dependable tool for long-term pricing. This relegates S2F to a scarcity narrative rather than a forecasting model.

Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin Model (Source: BiTBO)

Proponents of the power-law model, in contrast, contend that the cycle length and amplitude can be constrained without definitively dating outcomes.

CryptoSlate has previously outlined broad timeframes in which Bitcoin is unlikely to sustain prices below approximately six figures after 2028 and could, at some point between 2028 and 2037, reach the seven-figure mark.

These are ranges, not specific dates, and they carry the same caveats as any model that disregards policy shocks or structural changes in market access.

The new structural change is ETF flow, which acts as a demand valve that can overshadow the marginal issuance reductions encoded by halvings.

Sustained weekly spot inflows exceeding $2 billion to $3 billion would enhance the likelihood of testing the upper boundary, while ongoing outflows would increase the chances of a regression or floor retest.

Macro liquidity, including the trajectory of interest rates, the dollar, and central bank balance sheets, remains pivotal in determining whether the price stays above the regression or drifts toward the lower boundary. This macro context is absent in S2F and is only indirectly reflected in the power-law fit, which is why practitioners monitor flows and policy alongside the channel.

Clarity in methodology is essential given the model’s growing application in institutional presentations.

The power-law channel is formed by taking daily BTCUSD closes, converting them to log(price) versus log(time since genesis), fitting a simple linear regression as the fair-value curve, and then duplicating that line up and down in parallel to create resistance and support that historically enclose the price.

The model’s elegance lies in its generation of a consistently rising, time-based framework with a visible margin of error, which has so far captured cycle extremes without claiming to predict the date or magnitude of future surges.

The drawback is that it does not systematically incorporate known drivers, such as ETF demand or liquidity cycles, which must be observed to comprehend where within the channel the price is likely to be in the near term.

Currently, the live assessment is clear. The price is approximately one-fifth below the regression, significantly above the floor, with ETF flows and macroeconomic conditions influencing whether Bitcoin reaches the upper boundary or declines toward support before reverting to the mean.

The channel continues to ascend with time, and the boundaries delineate the tradable framework.

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