Concerns for Bitcoin Investors: A 17% Rise in Fertilizer Prices Could Disrupt the Cooling Inflation Story

Bitcoin stakeholders might be closely monitoring CPI figures, yet the genuine inflation concerns are manifesting in unexpected areas.

Inflation seems to be subsiding at first glance, but a closer look reveals a different story. Beef prices have significantly increased, fertilizer expenses are rising again, and various specialized input categories are diverging in ways that contradict the straightforward “cooling” story.

For Bitcoin, this kind of complex micro-inflation scenario can lead to market fluctuations between optimism for rate cuts and worries about persistent prices.

The disparity between beef and chicken prices is widening, and a “protein stress ratio” is indicating inflation threats

Multiple pricing series from the Federal Reserve’s FRED database are showing divergences across food, agricultural inputs, and industrial materials.

This trend complicates the inflation and growth discussion that underpins Bitcoin’s trading environment.

On the consumer front, the difference between two essential proteins has expanded.

According to FRED, the average retail price of ground beef increased from $5.497 per pound in July 2024 to $6.687 in December 2025.

In the same period, the price of whole chicken shifted from $1.988 to $2.020.

The retail series pages indicate some missing monthly data points.

When combined, the inferred “protein stress ratio” (beef divided by chicken) rose from approximately 2.77 to 3.31.

This change can strain household finances even when the overall food basket appears more stable, as shifting away from beef does not eliminate the elevated beef price benchmark for mixed diets.

The USDA’s Economic Research Service is already indicating the same trend.

According to USDA ERS Food Price Outlook summary findings, beef and veal prices are predicted to rise by 11.6% in 2025 (with a prediction interval of 9.5–13.8%).

Poultry is anticipated to increase by 1.9% (0.9–3.0%).

For macro positioning, this is significant because “sticky essentials” can maintain inflation concerns even if other sectors of the pipeline cool down.

This mix often directly influences real-yield expectations and liquidity conditions that Bitcoin investors monitor.

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Fertilizer prices are increasing again, and the inflation landscape is becoming complicated once more

Further up the chain, the situation is also varied.

Fertilizer manufacturing prices have accelerated again, with the PPI for fertilizer manufacturing increasing roughly 17.2% from July 2024 to November 2025.

Fertilizer generally passes through farm-gate costs with a delay, so a renewed rise can reintroduce pressure on food inputs even when headline inflation numbers are declining.

The World Bank has also identified fertilizer as an outlier among commodities in its 2025 outlook.

It anticipates its fertilizer price index will increase by approximately 7% in 2025, with a noted 15% increase for urea.

Research has similarly shown how shocks in the fertilizer market can lead to broader price pressures and constraints on farm profitability.

At the same time, certain areas of the food and inputs sector are moving in the opposite direction.

Producer prices for rendering and meat byproduct processing have decreased by about 21.8% from July 2024 to November 2025.

Conversely, lard, inedible tallow, and grease have increased by about 8.9% during the same timeframe.

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Industrial “plumbing” is solidifying, even as chemicals and discretionary inputs decline

The divergence can indicate stress within supply chains, where some outputs are being sold at lower prices while certain feedstocks are receiving a policy-driven boost.

This includes renewable diesel channels increasingly using animal fats as fuel inputs.

Outside of food, “plumbing” series related to physical goods movements are strengthening even as overall industrial inputs are softening.

Corrugated shipping containers have risen by about 9.35% from July 2024 to November 2025.

This could be due to more consistent goods volumes, heightened packaging costs, or a combination of both, and may manifest before consumer narratives adapt.

Copper scrap has also seen an increase, up about 9.0% from July 2024 to November 2025.

This series can reflect changes in construction and manufacturing demand as well as electrification-related developments.

In contrast, industrial chemicals have decreased by about 6.1% during the same interval.

This aligns with pipeline disinflation pressure and/or weaker intermediate demand.

Prices linked to discretionary items are also softening.

Hides, skins, and pelts produced in slaughtering facilities have dropped by about 26.5% from July 2024 to November 2025.

This niche series is associated with end markets such as automotive and leather goods.

It can weaken when discretionary demand diminishes or when there is a shift toward synthetics.

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Three macro pathways are emerging, and Bitcoin may prioritize liquidity over narrative

For macro observers, this serves as another indicator that growth could decelerate even when certain essentials and inputs remain stubbornly high.

Overall, this scenario presents three plausible trajectories for the next two to three quarters that are crucial for Bitcoin regarding real rates and liquidity.

If protein and fertilizer continue to exert pressure on inflation expectations while chemicals remain weak, markets may oscillate between inflation and growth risks.

This situation could make Bitcoin more reliant on liquidity conditions than on any single narrative.

If the growth factor prevails, indicated by ongoing softness in chemicals, hides, and declining packaging costs, expectations for rate cuts could solidify, and financial conditions could ease.

This environment has historically been more favorable for BTC compared to many high-beta assets when liquidity expands.

If input inflation resurges through fertilizer, packaging, and metals while protein prices remain high, the inflation-hedge narrative may reemerge.

Higher real yields would still impose limitations on risk positioning.

Below is a summary of the significant “micro-price” changes referenced in this discussion:

Series (FRED)	Window	Change	Source
Ground beef retail price (APU0000703112)	Jul 2024 to Dec 2025	$5.497 to $6.687 (+21.6%)	FRED
Whole chicken retail price (APU0000706111)	Jul 2024 to Dec 2025	$1.988 to $2.020 (+1.6%)	FRED
Fertilizer manufacturing PPI (PCU3253132531)	Jul 2024 to Nov 2025	+17.2%	FRED
Industrial chemicals PPI (WPU061)	Jul 2024 to Nov 2025	-6.1%	FRED
Corrugated containers PPI (WPU09150301)	Jul 2024 to Nov 2025	+9.35%	FRED
Hides/skins/pelts PPI (WPS041901)	Jul 2024 to Nov 2025	-26.5%	FRED

A final complication is that the data itself is becoming part of the macro narrative.

FRED retail food series pages indicate missing data points in late 2025 for certain items.

The USDA ERS has announced that its Food Price Outlook estimates for October–December will not be published, with updates resuming on January 23, 2026, after the December CPI and PPI data are released in January 2026.

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