Citi reduces Bitcoin forecast by $31,000 amid increasing prices as Washington’s delays hinder cryptocurrency advancement.

Citigroup reduces Bitcoin and Ethereum targets as slower US policy timeline limits the upside potential

Citigroup has revised its 12-month targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, decreasing its Bitcoin estimate to $112,000 from $143,000 and its Ethereum estimate to $3,175 from $4,304.

The update on March 17 represents a significant downgrade from the bank’s December outlook and is linked to a slower pace of US legislative developments, a delay that Citi indicated is impacting the policy support it had anticipated would boost ETF demand and broader adoption.

The adjustments are substantial enough to alter the one-year cryptocurrency outlook without making Citi bearish on the two assets.

Bitcoin’s revised target is approximately 21.7% lower than Citi’s previous estimate, while Ethereum’s new target is about 26.2% below the earlier prediction. Both revised targets remain above current market values.

According to the latest figures from CryptoSlate, Citi’s adjusted Bitcoin target still suggests around 51.8% upside from the current price, while its adjusted Ethereum target indicates approximately 36.8% upside.

Citi continues to anticipate that Bitcoin and Ethereum will appreciate over the next year. However, it has significantly reduced the upper limit it envisions for both assets due to the bank’s revised expectations regarding the pace of regulatory progress, institutional demand, and network developments that influenced its December forecasts.

For a market that has already seen a rebound in recent weeks, the downgrade appears less as a signal for immediate decline and more as a caution that the upward trajectory may be slower and narrower than previously expected.

This caution comes as both assets have recently gained value. Bitcoin is trading around $74,000, reflecting a 4.5% increase over the past week and a 7.5% rise over the past month. Ethereum is near $2,300, up 12% over seven days and 15% over 30 days.

The downgrade occurs as the market has tactically recovered, even as one of Wall Street’s largest banks has lowered its one-year expectations.

Related Reading

Citi raises stablecoin market projection to $1.9 trillion by 2030 despite low institutional maturity

The banking giant has increased its base case projection from $1.6 trillion in its April 2025 forecast, citing accelerated momentum from regulatory clarity and enhanced integration of the payment network.

Sep 26, 2025 · Gino Matos

Citi’s new targets still indicate upward potential, but the one-year range has contracted

Citi’s revision follows a much more optimistic set of targets released in December. At that time, the bank established a 12-month Bitcoin target of $143,000 and a 12-month Ethereum target of $4,304, while also outlining a Bitcoin bull case of $189,000 and an Ethereum bull case of $5,132 in a December report.

The previous outlook relied on regulatory easing and increased adoption. The new perspective maintains the fundamental upside case but adjusts it lower due to the slower-than-expected policy timeline.

In practical terms, the bank is suggesting that the market may still experience upward movement over the next year, but the impetus it anticipated to drive prices significantly higher has not materialized as expected. This represents a more cautious stance than the one Citi adopted at the end of the previous year. It also shifts the emphasis from mere price prediction to the mechanisms underlying the forecast.

Citi’s December outlook was contingent on regulation, ETF demand, and adoption reinforcing one another. Its March revision indicates that the sequence now appears less certain and immediate.

The data reflects this clearly.

Asset	Prior 12-month target	New 12-month target	Target cut	Current price	Implied upside to new target	7-day move	30-day move
Bitcoin	$143,000	$112,000	21.7%	$73,777.10	51.8%	4.55%	7.51%
Ethereum	$4,304	$3,175	26.2%	$2,320.12	36.8%	12.7%	15.38%

The table illustrates the contradiction at the core of Citi’s revision. Prices have improved over the past week and month, particularly for Ethereum, yet Citi has still reduced its one-year targets. This suggests the bank is questioning whether the necessary forces to sustain a larger move are robust enough to restore the December outlook.

This is particularly pertinent for Ethereum. Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin over both the seven-day and 30-day periods in the latest market snapshot. Nevertheless, Citi cut Ethereum’s target by a larger percentage than Bitcoin’s, indicating a more cautious perspective on the medium-term outlook for ETH than what recent price action alone might imply. In other words, recent strength has not sufficiently alleviated Citi’s concerns regarding adoption, policy timing, and the broader demand environment.

For Bitcoin, the adjustment is somewhat different. Citi still anticipates more than 50% upside from current levels, indicating that the bank has not dismissed the broader institutional case for BTC. However, by lowering the target from $143,000 to $112,000, it has reduced the extent to which that case can progress in the coming year under current circumstances.

Related Reading

Citigroup launches Citi Token Services for institutional clients

The multinational financial institution has previously expressed optimism regarding blockchain adoption and is advancing its token services program.

Sep 18, 2023 · Jacob Oliver

This leaves Bitcoin with a still-positive but less expansive upside profile, one that relies more on consistent inflows and less on a rapid policy tailwind.

Infographic showing Citi lowering its 12-month Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets amid legislative delays in Washington.

ETF flows and market performance indicate support is still present, but Citi is looking beyond the rebound

According to Farside, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $199 million in net inflows on March 16, bringing cumulative net inflows to $56.3 billion. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw $36 million in net inflows, with cumulative net inflows of $11.8 billion.

These figures demonstrate that genuine demand remains. However, they also clarify why Citi’s revision is more nuanced than a straightforward bearish stance. The question is whether the current rate of inflows, combined with a slower policy timeline, is sufficient to support the much higher targets Citi established in December. On this matter, the bank’s current position appears to be negative.

This shift is more apparent when comparing the narratives from December and March side by side. In December, Citi linked its targets to regulatory easing and broader adoption.

In March, it reduced those same targets due to slower-than-expected US legislative progress, as noted in the March 17 report. The fundamental change is not that cryptocurrency prices have ceased to move. Citi is indicating that the policy and demand sequence it anticipated to amplify those movements has not materialized quickly enough.

This places markets in an unusual situation. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both rebounded in recent weeks. ETF investments continue to flow in. Yet a major bank has determined that the one-year outlook should be adjusted downward regardless.

This discrepancy between price performance and target adjustments serves as a more informative signal. It suggests that the market can rally in the short term without convincing every major forecaster that the long-term outlook has improved to the same extent.

It also clarifies why Citi’s downgrade does not read as a prediction for daily trading. The bank is adjusting a 12-month target, not forecasting an imminent crash. This distinction is significant. Targets pertain to the magnitude of movement over time, not whether prices can continue to rise over the next few sessions or even weeks.

By that measure, Citi’s message is clear: the market can still appreciate, but the potential above current prices is smaller than the bank previously estimated a few months ago.

Related Reading

My $49k Bitcoin prediction playing out but BTC is closing in on a major BUY ZONE

My September Bitcoin prediction has unfolded as expected; now we must consider what is most likely to follow.

Feb 6, 2026 · Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright

The next challenge is whether policy and inflows can rebuild the case Citi has scaled back

The primary factor behind Citi’s adjustment is Washington. In January, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott announced a markup for a digital-asset market structure on January 15, which was postponed on January 14 as discussions continued, according to the committee’s statement and subsequent update. Senators are still working to advance the stalled CLARITY Act through a compromise related to stablecoin yield.

This timeline influences Citi’s adjustment as it is the most explicit reason the bank has provided for lowering its targets. A slower policy trajectory delays legislation and diminishes confidence that a more favorable regulatory framework will arrive soon enough to boost ETF demand, corporate engagement, and other forms of institutional adoption within the next year.

The mechanism is straightforward: if the policy step is delayed, the adoption step may also be postponed, making price targets linked to that adoption more difficult to justify.

For Bitcoin, the next inquiry is whether spot ETF inflows can continue to grow even without a clearer legislative environment. If they can, Citi’s new target might still be conservative. If inflows plateau or lose momentum, the bank’s adjustment may appear premature rather than late.

The same framework applies to Ethereum, but with a tighter margin for error. Ethereum’s recent gains have been more pronounced, yet Citi’s target reduction was more substantial. This indicates that ETH requires not only ongoing price support but also stronger evidence that usage and institutional demand can validate a higher one-year ceiling.

None of this necessitates a dramatic shift in either direction. The existing data suggests a narrower, more conditional setup. Citi still perceives upside from current prices. ETF inflows remain positive. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have appreciated over the past month. However, the one-year outlook now relies more heavily on whether policy negotiations begin yielding results and whether inflows remain robust enough to replace the optimism Citi removed from its December forecasts.

The upcoming months should reveal whether that caution was justified. A legislative breakthrough, stronger ETF inflow trends, or more solid adoption data could restore the case for elevated targets.

Conversely, further delays in Washington, weaker inflows, or diminished follow-through from recent market gains would support Citi’s decision to lower its expectations.

For now, Citi’s revision presents a cryptocurrency landscape with a viable but diminished upside case, along with a clear challenge ahead: whether policy and demand can align with the prices that have already increased.

The post Citi slashes Bitcoin target by $31,000 despite rising prices as Washington delays stall crypto breakout appeared first on CryptoSlate.