Can Bitcoin maintain its position as $1.8 billion in realized gains enters the market?

Bitcoin is exhibiting signs of fatigue that often precede significant directional shifts.

On October 15, traders secured $1.8 billion in profits, marking one of the most substantial cash-out days since the summer commenced.

Additionally, $430 million in realized losses impacted the market on the same day, reinforcing the sentiment felt since the weekend’s downturn: momentum is diminishing, and a considerable amount of capital is exiting.

Graph illustrating Bitcoin’s realized profit (green) and loss (red) from August 6 to October 16, 2025 (Source: Checkonchain)

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin is positioned just above $110,000, reflecting a nearly 10% decline since the start of October. This drop is not a gradual decline but rather a rapid exit by holders who purchased early in 2025 and have maintained their positions since.

Long-term holders (defined as coins older than three months) accounted for the majority of the selling, realizing over six times the profit compared to short-term holders.

Given that long-term holders have remained significantly profitable even during last week’s downturn, it can be inferred that they are not in a state of panic. Instead, they are de-risking by taking profits during periods of weakness rather than waiting for a rebound.

Graph depicting Bitcoin’s realized profit by cohort from August 6 to October 16, 2025 (Source: Checkonchain)

Some level of profit-taking is typical following a consolidation phase. A few billion-dollar profit-taking days can be viewed as a healthy rotation. However, when this trend becomes persistent, as observed since the beginning of the month, it shifts from appearing as distribution to resembling exhaustion.

The realized loss aspect is also increasing. While these losses remain within a “manageable” range, they have been rising alongside profits. If realized losses continue to increase in tandem with profits, it may suggest that the de-risking behavior is extending from short-term holders to the broader market.

This situation could become quite widespread, as half of Bitcoin’s short-term holders are currently experiencing losses. Data from Checkonchain indicates that unrealized losses now represent approximately 2% of the market cap, a small figure that is rapidly increasing.

A decline below $100,000 could easily elevate that percentage to 5%, sufficient to transform the current unease into widespread fear.

Historically, only during severe bear markets has more than 30% of the supply been in loss, and we are perilously close to that level.

If buyers can defend the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin may reset its short-term cost basis and regain bullish momentum.

Should it fall below $100,000, the cost basis for the new wave of buyers would diminish, flipping the entire short-term supply to a loss position. This scenario wouldn’t necessarily signify the end of the cycle but could prolong the correction into the $80,000 range, resulting in an approximate 35% drawdown from the all-time high.

For the moment, Bitcoin remains remarkably stable, given the magnitude of the selling pressure. However, the message conveyed on the chain is clear: conviction is waning.

The bulls continue to defend, but each downward candle complicates the ability to discern whether they are buying dips or attempting to catch falling knives.

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