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Bitwise Chief Funding Officer Matt Hougan has raised doubts about the ongoing nature of Bitcoin’s (BTC) traditional four-year cycle, indicating that recent developments in Washington could extend the current bull market into 2026 and beyond.
In a communication to investors, Hougan pointed out that Bitcoin has typically followed a pattern of three robust years followed by a downturn. He previously identified this trend in mid-2022, forecasting a market recovery that occurred in 2023 and 2024.
Based on historical patterns, 2025 is anticipated to be another strong year. However, the outlook for 2026 may differ from past cycles.
According to Hougan, economic factors, rather than Bitcoin’s halving events, are the main influences behind the four-year cycle. Market rallies usually commence with a significant catalyst, attracting new investors and generating momentum.
Ultimately, speculative excess leads to corrections, as evidenced by previous incidents such as the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014 and the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) crackdown on ICOs in 2018.
Catalysts
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The Grayscale legal victory against the SEC in March 2023 triggered the current cycle, which Bitwise has termed the “Mainstream Cycle.” This ruling facilitated the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which launched in January 2024 and attracted substantial institutional investment.
Since that initial ruling, Bitcoin’s price has risen from $22,218 to over $102,000. Additionally, President Donald Trump’s recent executive orders related to digital assets have introduced a new factor that could drive another rally to unprecedented levels.
The order designates the expansion of the digital asset ecosystem as a “national priority,” signals regulatory clarity, and outlines plans for a potential “national crypto stockpile.” These initiatives, along with a pro-crypto shift within the SEC, could accelerate Wall Street’s entry into the crypto market.
Hougan anticipates that ETF inflows and corporate Bitcoin acquisitions may propel Bitcoin’s price beyond $200,000 in 2025.
While he acknowledges the increasing market leverage through debt-financed Bitcoin purchases and lending programs, institutional adoption and regulatory support may mitigate the severe corrections seen in previous cycles.
Although speculation-driven pullbacks remain possible, Hougan expects any decline to be less severe than in earlier cycles due to the maturation of the crypto market. With growing institutional participation, he envisions sustained upward momentum continuing despite inevitable volatility.
Hougan suggested that traditional market cycles may no longer be applicable as the crypto market evolves, indicating a transition towards broader institutional integration and sustained investor interest.
The post Bitwise CIO believes Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle is over appeared first on CryptoSlate.
