Bitcoin’s decline to $60,000 leaves BTC treasury firms with $10 billion in losses as a significant company prepares for a potential $27 billion setback.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) decline to a low of $60,233 overnight, followed by a slight recovery to $65,443, has resulted in significant unrealized losses for many of the largest Bitcoin treasury companies, with total losses nearing $10 billion across eight firms that collectively hold over 850,000 BTC.

The impact is most pronounced at the top. Strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, possesses 713,502 BTC with an average cost basis of $76,047 per coin, leading to an unrealized loss of $6.85 billion at current market prices.

This represents a 12.6% decrease on a treasury valued at $47.4 billion at spot prices, but the company’s size means that each $1,000 fluctuation in Bitcoin’s price affects its paper position by $713.5 million.

Metaplanet, a Japanese hotel company that has transitioned into a Bitcoin accumulator, is facing a $1.45 billion unrealized loss on 35,102 BTC purchased at an average of $107,716. Its 38.3% unrealized loss highlights the timing risk associated with acquisitions made near all-time highs in late 2024 and early 2025.

Twenty One Capital reports a paper loss of $906.7 million on 43,514 BTC bought at $87,280.37, resulting in a 23.9% decline. The valuation is based on a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission dated July 29, 2025.

The dataset, obtained from Bitcoin Treasuries, includes only companies whose business model is focused solely on Bitcoin accumulation.

Firms like Coinbase and Tesla, which have diversified operations, do not qualify, making this a straightforward assessment of conviction versus cost basis.

Of the eight companies examined, seven are currently experiencing losses. The only exception is Next, which acquired 5,833 BTC at $35,670.09 and maintains an unrealized gain of 86.3% ($179.5 million).

Bar chart illustrating unrealized profit and loss positions for eight pure Bitcoin treasury companies at a BTC spot price of $66,443.75, with Strategy leading the losses at negative $6.85 billion.

The mNAV compression risk

Market-to-net-asset-value ratios introduce an additional layer of complexity to the situation. Metaplanet trades at an mNAV of 1.018, closely aligned with its BTC holdings, while Strategy’s 0.784 multiple indicates that the market values its equity at a 21.6% discount to its Bitcoin treasury.

Nakamoto, holding 5,398 BTC and a 0.329 mNAV, trades at a 67% discount despite acquiring coins at $119,729, reflecting a 44.5% unrealized loss.

This disparity is significant because underwater treasuries often require either premium mNAV multiples or dilutive equity raises to continue accumulating. During downturns, markets typically demand the opposite: wider discounts and higher hurdle rates for new capital.

Companies that remain profitable, such as Next, retain flexibility. They can hold, realize gains to support operations, or use proceeds defensively.

Entities that are 40% underwater face a different scenario: holding becomes a forced wager that Bitcoin will recover before financing opportunities diminish.

Scatter plot illustrating market-to-NAV ratios against unrealized loss percentages for Bitcoin treasury companies, with bubble sizes representing BTC holdings and showing Nakamoto trading at a significant discount despite being 44% underwater.

The incremental damage

The current price of $65,443 is 51% lower than Bitcoin’s peak of $126,000 in October 2025, part of a broader crypto market downturn that has wiped out nearly $2 trillion in value.

Earlier this week, $2.5 billion in Bitcoin liquidations accelerated the deleveraging process, and the Financial Times noted increasing prediction-market odds of a sub-$60,000 scenario.

Stifel’s technical models identify $38,000 as a potential crash target based on trendline support.

If Bitcoin experiences a sustained decline below $60,000, a 9% drop from current levels, Strategy’s incremental loss would increase by $4.6 billion, Metaplanet’s by $226 million, and Twenty One Capital’s by $280 million.

At $50,000, those figures would rise to $11.73 billion, $577 million, and $715 million, respectively.

A drop to $38,000 would impose an additional $20.29 billion loss on Strategy alone, on top of the $6.85 billion it is already underwater.

Strive, which holds 13,132 BTC at a $105,850 basis, would see its current loss of $517.5 million increase by $373.5 million if Bitcoin reaches $38,000.

ProCap’s 5,000 BTC, acquired at $104,219.34, would deepen its $188.9 million underwater position by an additional $142 million.

Even Next, which remains profitable at current prices, would forfeit $165.9 million of its $179.5 million paper gain if Bitcoin declines to $38,000, leaving it barely above break-even.

Company	BTC held	ΔP/L to $60,000	ΔP/L to $50,000	ΔP/L to $38,000
Nakamoto	5,398	-$0.03B	-$0.09B	-$0.15B
Next	5,833	-$0.04B	-$0.10B	-$0.17B
ProCap	5,000	-$0.03B	-$0.08B	-$0.14B
Strive	13,132	-$0.08B	-$0.22B	-$0.37B
Metaplanet	35,102	-$0.23B	-$0.58B	-$1.00B
Twenty One Capital (XXI)	43,514	-$0.28B	-$0.72B	-$1.24B
Strategy	713,502	-$4.60B	-$11.73B	-$20.29B
Cohort total (ex-Bitcoin Standard)	821,481	-$5.29B	-$13.51B	-$23.37B
Strategy share of cohort incremental loss	86.9%	86.9%	86.9%

ETF outflows and the distribution shift

The downturn coincides with a fundamental shift in Bitcoin distribution.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which aggressively accumulated through 2024 and early 2025, have experienced net outflows in recent weeks as institutional investors shift towards safer assets.

This reversal in flow eliminates a crucial buyer group that previously absorbed supply pressure, leaving treasury companies as the primary holders.

However, “diamond hands” is more of a narrative than a financing strategy. Companies accumulating through convertible debt or equity raises are facing increasing costs and diminishing mNAV premiums.

Metaplanet’s 1.018 multiple provides it with equity-issuance capacity nearly equal to its BTC holdings.

Strategy’s 0.784 indicates that every dollar raised through equity costs $1.27 in Bitcoin value on a look-through basis.

Nakamoto’s 0.329 multiple turns equity raises into a 3-to-1 dilution tax.

Reflexivity trap

The risk lies not only in the mark-to-market loss but also in the feedback loop.

Underwater treasuries compress mNAV multiples, increasing the cost of new capital, slowing accumulation, negatively impacting equity sentiment, and further compressing multiples.

Companies with high cost bases acquired during market strength may find themselves having bought at the peak of a cycle if Bitcoin continues to decline.

Twenty One Capital’s $87,280.37 basis, disclosed in SEC filings, is 24% above current prices but 13% below Strategy’s $76,047 average. It becomes a matter of timing rather than conviction.

ProCap’s estimated $104,219.34 basis and Strive’s $105,850 are clustered within the same late-2024 buying window. All three are now 36-37% underwater, indicating they would need Bitcoin to rise above $91,000 to break even, a 37% increase from current levels.

What happens at $38,000

If Stifel’s $38,000 target is realized, the total loss for these eight treasuries would surpass $25 billion in incremental damage from current levels.

Strategy alone would incur a $20.29 billion loss in addition to its existing $6.85 billion paper loss, bringing total unrealized losses to $27.14 billion. Metaplanet would be nearly $2.5 billion underwater overall, while Twenty One Capital would approach $2.2 billion.

At that price, even Next would fall below break-even, eliminating its $179.5 million cushion. The entire group would be underwater, with no options other than to hold and await a recovery that markets are increasingly viewing as uncertain.

Pure Bitcoin treasuries rely on the belief that conviction combined with scale leads to compounding.

When Bitcoin rises, leverage amplifies gains and mNAV multiples expand, transforming equity into a call option on BTC with embedded financing arbitrage. Conversely, when Bitcoin declines, the same leverage converts paper losses into financing constraints and multiple compressions into a reflexive trap.

The current price of $65,443 does not invalidate the thesis. Instead, it serves as a stress test.

Strategy’s $6.85 billion unrealized loss constitutes 12.6% of its BTC value, a figure that would be manageable if Bitcoin rebounds. If it does not, the critical question becomes: at what price does being underwater become unsustainable, and who determines when conviction shifts to capitulation?

For the time being, the market has delivered its judgment through mNAV: premiums for profitable treasuries, discounts for those underwater, and significant discounts for those lacking clear exit strategies.

The leaderboard of paper losses is not fixed. It adjusts with every $1,000 change in Bitcoin, and the next downturn will reveal whether these treasuries are value traps or survivors of the cycle.

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