Bitcoin’s cycle indicator suggests a peak may occur by late October; could ETFs alter the narrative?

The price of Bitcoin is hovering around $117,000 following the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, as the 1,065-day post-halving period draws near.

Yesterday, the Fed reduced rates by 25 basis points, positioning Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory at the crossroads of policy and a cycle marker that Axios indicates has historically marked a “final high” approximately 1,065 days after a previous cycle low.

The testing period extends through late September and early October, after which the market will transition into Thanksgiving, influenced by flow, dollar, and rate dynamics that could either prolong the upward trend or initiate a topping process, which previous cycles have associated with declines of 40 to 60 percent, according to Axios.

Demand for spot ETFs is the primary factor to monitor, as it transforms the cycle into a flow issue. CoinShares’ most recent weekly fund-flow report indicates that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced renewed net inflows in late August and early September, totaling billions of dollars, while SoSoValue noted a mid-September streak of multi-session inflows, including a single-day total of approximately $260 million on September 15.

These figures stand in contrast to the post-halving issuance of roughly 452 Bitcoin daily, calculated as 3.125 Bitcoin per block multiplied by about 144 blocks per day. When multi-day ETF demand absorbs several thousand Bitcoin weekly, the market’s capacity to distribute inventory at peak levels diminishes, potentially extending topping processes into a plateau rather than a singular peak.

Macro conditions represent the second factor.

This month, the euro reached a four-year high against the dollar as expectations for rate cuts increased, while short-term Treasury yields softened ahead of the meeting.

A weaker dollar tends to lower global financial conditions and is often associated with increased risk across various assets. Concurrently, domestic inflation has eased from last year’s levels, with August’s headline CPI at 2.5 percent year over year and core CPI at 3.0 percent, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The outcome of the policy will determine whether these favorable conditions continue or diminish. Throughout the remainder of 2025, cuts accompanied by dovish language that highlights progress on inflation and downplays the necessity for rapid reversals would support a decline in the dollar and extend the risk window.

Conversely, cuts that stress vigilance regarding inflation and a limited capacity for further easing would maintain elevated rates and reduce momentum. A no-cut scenario was considered unlikely, yet it would have tightened financial conditions as the quarter ends and placed more responsibility on ETF demand.

Mining economics influence how significantly price movements are transmitted to the supply side. In recent weeks, hashrate has remained around 1.0 to 1.12 zettahash per second, with network difficulty nearing a record high of approximately 136 trillion, according to Hashrate Index tracking.

This environment keeps hashprice between $53 and $55 per petahash per day, levels that align broadly with Luxor’s spot readings this month. Since hashprice scales roughly with Bitcoin price and inversely with hashrate, projections for Q4 can be estimated by merging price trajectories with modest hashrate increases as new rigs come online. Fees currently represent a smaller portion of the overall picture, so price predominantly influences miner cash flow.

A straightforward baseline clarifies the inputs that shape scenario bands through Thanksgiving, November 27.

Baseline input	Value	Source or method
Spot price anchor	~$116,000	Market level today
Implied volatility	~30–40% (near-dated)	Deribit DVOL context in early September
Issuance	~452 BTC/day	3.125 BTC subsidy × ~144 blocks
Hashrate	~1.0–1.1 ZH/s trending up	Hashrate Index
Hashprice	~$53–$55 per PH/day	Luxor-referenced spot

With these inputs, the grid below outlines price and miner hashprice ranges leading into late November, influenced by policy tone and ETF flow states. These are ranges, not specific targets, intended to illustrate how the tone of cuts and net flows affect price and miner revenue under low-fee conditions and moderate hashrate growth.

ETF flows Fed outcome	Cut, dovish tone	Cut, hawkish tone	No cut
Sustained net inflows (multi-week >$1–2B)	BTC $125k–$145k, hashprice $57–$66/PH/day	BTC $110k–$125k, hashprice $48–$58/PH/day	BTC $105k–$120k, hashprice $45–$55/PH/day
Flat or net outflows	BTC $115k–$125k, hashprice $50–$57/PH/day	BTC $95k–$110k, hashprice $40–$50/PH/day	BTC $80k–$95k, hashprice $33–$45/PH/day

The timing of the cycle clock is significant for interpreting these bands

Axios suggests that previous “final highs” occurred around the 1,065-day mark, followed by drawdowns that were less severe during the ETF era compared to earlier cycles. This provides an additional perspective for investors monitoring the market into early October.

My analysis identified November 1 as a potential date for the cycle peak, based on historical cycle peaks occurring approximately 100 days after the last halving.

Bitcoin halving cycles

However, if the window results in a high and ETF demand remains robust, the outcome could be a rounded top with less pronounced retracements.

If the window closes without a new high and flows become mixed, the market may shift toward the central areas of the grid, where prices fluctuate below the previous peak while hashprice is limited by gradual increases in hashrate.

The tone of policy will quickly influence the flow of data. According to Business Insider’s analysis of meeting outcomes, a dovish cut leads to a more accommodating dollar environment and a steeper risk appetite curve, which historically attracts additional demand into equities and crypto, while a hawkish cut flattens that curve and emphasizes idiosyncratic flows.

A no-cut scenario would have tested the lower bands in the table, as it removes the immediate easing impulse and tends to strengthen the dollar. The CPI profile diminishes the necessity for unexpected restrictive measures, based on BLS data, yet the chair’s focus on data dependence may maintain uncertainty regarding the rate path, even if a first cut is implemented.

ETF flow trends are the most reliable high-frequency metric to observe against this policy backdrop. CoinShares’ weekly data provide insights into size and regional composition, while SoSoValue’s daily counts indicate whether the sessions following the announcement extend or diminish the bid.

Translating these figures into supply absorption is straightforward

At a Bitcoin price of $115,000 to $120,000, a net inflow of one billion dollars corresponds to approximately 8,300 to 8,700 Bitcoin. Weekly net inflows of $1.5 to $2.5 billion suggest 13,000 to 21,000 Bitcoin, or roughly four to seven times the weekly issuance.

Sustained ratios above one, even with moderate outflows on certain days, create a structural cushion beneath the spot price that can lower realized volatility and compress the left tail in the upper grid areas.

Miner balance sheets shift from being a lagging indicator to a stress indicator if prices trade within the lower bands. With difficulty levels near a record and electricity costs rising for some operators, a combination of price declines toward $95,000 and steady hashrate could push hashprice into the low 40s per petahash per day.

This level typically reopens hedging activities and delays capital expenditures rather than leading to widespread shutdowns, although thresholds may vary by company. According to updates from Hashrate Index on public miner expansions, capacity additions are still in progress, making a hashrate increase of 3 to 7 percent into November a reasonable assumption for the table above.

As Thanksgiving approaches, the narrative anchor remains unchanged.

The market is evaluating a potential initial policy cut that will influence the dollar and short-term rates, ETF net demand that either absorbs or releases supply relative to a daily issuance of 452 Bitcoin, and an impending 1,065-day cycle marker that Axios argues historically coincides with a final high followed by a drawdown.

The window occurs in late September and early October, after which focus will shift to whether post-decision flows and macro conditions affirm or contradict the cycle narrative.

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