Bitcoin’s actual price indicates the true bull market signal.

Bitcoin reached a new peak after surpassing $125,000 over the recent weekend. This headline is recognizable and represents a significant round-number benchmark that encourages retail investors to re-engage with the charts. However, an additional development occurred beneath the surface: the blockchain subtly adjusted its accounting.

Realized price, which indicates the average cost at which each existing coin last transitioned, has just seen a synchronized increase across both short-term and long-term holders, as well as the overall market. Realized price serves as the chain’s truth serum. It disregards speculative movements or leverage; it only shifts when actual coins change ownership.

In the last nine months, Bitcoin’s realized price ascended from approximately $41,000 to over $54,000. The cost basis for short-term holders surged from around $87,000 to $113,000. Even long-term holders, who typically remain unfazed, experienced their basis increase from $24,000 to nearly $37,000.

Bitcoin’s key cost basis models from Jan. 1 to Oct. 6, 2025 (Source: Checkonchain)

This last figure is revealing. The long-term holder (LTH) cost basis shows minimal movement in bull markets unless older coins are genuinely changing hands, typically from deep storage to meet new demand. This time, there is significant movement. Coins that have remained inactive for years are being revalued higher, often in response to ETF creation flows or movements in institutional custody.

This exemplifies what true on-chain repricing appears like: a large-scale supply rotation, rather than speculative activity.

Why it matters

As realized price increases, it elevates the market’s “breakeven floor.” The average holder now possesses Bitcoin at a higher cost, tightening the profit margin across the network. This alters behavior. Dips are purchased more swiftly because holders are closer to breaking even. However, if the price falls below the new short-term holder threshold, currently around $113,000, the reaction could be more severe, since leverage and sentiment are precariously positioned.

It also has implications for who is left holding assets. Each time the long-term basis ticks upward, it signifies that older supply (miners, original wallets, custodial treasuries) has been redistributed to new buyers with renewed conviction. The weaker supply from previous years transforms into stronger hands. This resets the “pain threshold” for future corrections, as the overhang of older profit-takers shifts higher, clearing the space below.

This repricing effectively hard-codes institutional entry into the chain for ETF issuers and trading desks. Those $110k creation units represent more than mere price action; they are now integrated into Bitcoin’s permanent ledger. Therefore, the rise of the LTH line should be regarded with greater significance than spot volatility. It indicates that ownership is genuinely transitioning, not merely being recycled through leverage.

The new soft floor

Consider realized price as Bitcoin’s equivalent of book value, a continuous tally of what the market has actually paid for every coin that still exists. It reflects the blockchain’s average acquisition cost across the entire circulating supply. This includes coins held by ETFs, exchanges, miners, and individual wallets, as well as coins that will never be moved again: the millions lost due to forgotten keys, early hard drives, and Satoshi-era wallets that have not seen transactions in fifteen years. Those ancient coins are still factored into the realized cap, valued at the price they last moved, often between a few cents and several hundred dollars.

This duality makes realized price both potent and complex. It encompasses the total historical ledger, not just the active economy. When realized prices increase, as they did this year to around $54,000, it redefines the network’s perception of “fair value,” while still averaging billions of dollars’ worth of inactive supply. Essentially, Bitcoin’s realized price represents a blended cost basis between actively trading coins, which constantly shift and revalue, and dormant ones that will never be utilized again. This implies that the number consistently skews lower than the actual cost of holding Bitcoin in the current market.

Thus, while traders perceive $54,000 as an invisible floor, it is a floor supported by ghosts. A substantial portion of the circulating supply was last active prior to Bitcoin establishing a functional market, which depresses the realized price. This distortion can mask the true cost of the actual, liquid supply. Practically speaking, the active float, or the coins that truly trade, secure loans, or circulate through ETFs, likely carries a cost basis tens of thousands of dollars higher.

Each dip toward realized price attracts buyers who see it as a “discount,” but this perception is partially illusory. It does not reflect the average cost of today’s investors; instead, it is a weighted memory of everyone who has ever owned Bitcoin, whether living or deceased. As more ancient coins remain untouched, the realized price will consistently understate the genuine commitment of the current market.

The short-term holder (STH) cost basis, on the other hand, functions as a real-time sentiment indicator. When the price remains above it, momentum stays stable; when it dips below, funding turns negative, and liquidations rise. With that threshold now at $113,000, Bitcoin’s volatility range has shifted upward by nearly $30,000 since June. The entire derivatives market now prices risk around a higher average.

The chain is indicating this isn’t merely hype

This simultaneous rise, where LTH, STH, and realized price all increase together, serves as the blockchain’s method of signaling. It indicates that the market has adjusted its pricing through actual settlements, rather than mere speculation. This is also the strongest evidence that the ETF era is not only introducing passive inflows; it is altering Bitcoin’s internal economics. Older supplies are finding new custodians. Every coin that has transacted in the past six months did so at significantly higher prices, driving the network’s “average cost” up more swiftly than in any prior bull cycle.

The upcoming weeks will determine whether this repricing is sustainable. If the STH and LTH cost bases continue to rise in unison, it suggests that coins are still being exchanged at elevated prices, indicating genuine demand rather than speculative reshuffling. Conversely, if they stabilize, the market may simply be pausing between rotations.

Keep an eye on ETF flows and exchange balances as well. If ETF creations continue to deplete spot supply while exchange reserves diminish, it would confirm that the repricing is structural. If not, it may have been a temporary shift from cold wallets to custodians.

Funding and basis will provide further insights. Healthy bull markets thrive on flat or slightly positive funding. If Bitcoin continues to rise while funding remains neutral, this repricing is solidified. If funding turns negative above $113,000, it indicates that traders still lack confidence, leading to another reset.

The essential takeaway is that owning Bitcoin has become more costly. The ledger itself has revised its average cost, acknowledging the new price landscape. With realized price at $54,000 and short-term holders’ basis above $113,000, these figures are not just statistics. They demonstrate that ownership has shifted, and the market’s memory has evolved.

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