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Bitcoin’s $150,000 prediction cut reveals that the institutional “guarantee” is truly a high-risk bet for 2026.
Predictions for Bitcoin’s price in 2026 from leading banks, asset managers, and market analysts vary significantly, ranging from approximately $75,000 to $250,000, with many estimates clustering within the lower to mid six figures.
This broad spectrum indicates uncertainty regarding whether institutional interest can balance weaker retail participation and if Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macro liquidity conditions will become prominent again in 2026.
In December 2025, Standard Chartered revised its 2026 forecast down to $150,000 from a prior estimate of $300,000.
Geoffrey Kendrick, the Global Head of Digital Assets Research at the bank, mentioned that the growth would be slower than initially anticipated, with the bullish scenario increasingly reliant on ETF purchases rather than a rise in corporate treasury investments.
Bernstein continues to hold a $150,000 target for 2026, with an anticipated peak of $200,000 in 2027, envisioning a prolonged bull cycle where institutional buying mitigates retail panic selling and disrupts the conventional four-year trend.
JPMorgan has set a fair value estimate of $170,000 for the next six to twelve months, utilizing a gold-based framework that accounts for Bitcoin’s heightened volatility and risk profile.
This month, Tom Lee from Fundstrat projected a price of $200,000, while Michael Saylor from Strategy has suggested that $150,000 is a realistic outcome if institutional adoption continues.
Carol Alexander from the University of Sussex anticipates a high-volatility range between $75,000 and $150,000, with a central point around $110,000, representing one of the more cautious perspectives among prominent predictions.
Charles Hoskinson of Cardano has proposed a $250,000 scenario, claiming that limited supply could match rising institutional demand.
Bull case for Bitcoin
The bullish outlook for $150,000 to $250,000 relies on institutions consuming the available supply through ETFs, wealth management platforms, and long-term investment strategies.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has estimated a base scenario of about $15 billion in crypto ETF inflows for 2026, with optimistic scenarios potentially reaching $40 billion if market conditions improve.
Galaxy Digital’s outlook for 2026 anticipates that U.S. spot crypto ETF net inflows may surpass $50 billion as wealth management platforms and model portfolios expand access.
Data from early 2026 also indicated a robust start, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting around $1.1 billion in the first two trading days, including approximately $697 million in net inflows on the second trading day. However, this was quickly reversed in the following weeks.
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Some asset managers have suggested that ETF demand could match or surpass new issuance during periods of sustained inflows, a trend that would tighten market liquidity if it continues.
On-chain analysts have also indicated signs of long-term holder accumulation resuming in late 2025, aligning with a market transition from distribution to longer-term positioning.
| Institution | 2026 Target | Key Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | $150,000 | ETF-driven demand; slower pace compared to previous cycle assumptions |
| Bernstein | $150,000 | Extended bull cycle; institutional buying counterbalances retail selling |
| JPMorgan | $170,000 | Gold-based framework adjusted for volatility and risk premium |
| Tom Lee (Fundstrat) | $200,000 | Continuation of momentum and increasing institutional participation |
| Michael Saylor (Strategy) | $150,000 | Institutional adoption and structural supply limitations |
| Carol Alexander (University of Sussex) | $75,000-$150,000 | High-volatility range; conservative outlook |
| Charles Hoskinson (Cardano) | $250,000 | Supply constraints align with institutional demand |
The bear case for Bitcoin
The bearish perspective for Bitcoin, predicting a range of $35,000 to $70,000, is based on CryptoQuant’s analysis suggesting that Bitcoin entered a bear-market phase in late 2025, as indicated by on-chain metrics.
CryptoQuant and other on-chain analysis firms have pointed out various indicators that suggest drawdown risk, indicating that downside pressure may persist through 2026 if demand does not stabilize and macroeconomic conditions tighten.
On the technical front, traders are monitoring previous cycle highs, realized-price levels, and long-term moving averages as potential support zones should volatility increase.
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ETF flows have also been characterized as more sensitive to price changes during risk-off periods, diminishing as prices decline and re-accelerating when momentum and investor confidence return.
Some bearish models suggest that Bitcoin’s connection to global liquidity has weakened since 2025, while bullish models argue that delayed effects and evolving Fed policy expectations could eventually restore positive sensitivity to easing financial environments.
For longer-term forecasts, ARK Invest’s valuation analysis for 2030 presents a bear case of approximately $300,000, a base case around $710,000, and a bull case close to $1.5 million per Bitcoin.
The 2028 halving will reduce daily issuance to about 225 BTC, raising the likelihood that sustained institutional demand could have a more significant marginal effect on price if supply remains constrained.
Ultimately, the broad prediction range of $75,000 to $250,000 underscores that even experienced market participants have differing views on Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2026, leaving the market highly responsive to whether institutional inflows continue or diminish.
The post Bitcoin’s $150,000 forecast slash proves the institutional “sure thing” is actually a high-stakes gamble for 2026 appeared first on CryptoSlate.
