Bitcoin whales accumulated 200,000 BTC over the course of a month, while short-term demand is concurrently diminishing.

Bitcoin’s persistent price challenges are evolving into a market characterized less by “bad news” and more by underlying mechanics, which can sustain a downtrend even when selling appears fatigued.

As per CryptoSlate’s data, the BTC price has decreased by roughly 46% from the all-time high of nearly $126,000 reached in early October 2025, currently trading around $67,470 at the time of reporting.

Glassnode has characterized the post-October market as a three-phase unwinding process where BTC underwent a swift drop towards its “True Market Mean” of $79,200, followed by a consolidation phase through late January, and a significant breakdown that hastened the decline toward the $60,000 range.

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Consequently, a significant portion of BTC’s recent purchasers are currently at a loss, and their break-even points are starting to act like a resistance level.

In a market driven by leverage, momentum, and reflexive flows, this resistance can be as impactful as a macroeconomic headline. When prices rebound towards the cost basis of underwater holders, many opt to sell to recover their investments, transforming rebounds into supply events.

Break-even walls, short-term holders are underwater

CryptoQuant’s realized price UTXO age bands suggest that BTC’s price has dipped below the realized price bands for short-term holders.

This indicates that numerous short-term participants are at a loss, and the recent downturn has largely been fueled by distribution from this group.

Bitcoin Realized Price (Source: CryptoQuant)

Glassnode has noted a similar trend from a different perspective, highlighting that short-term holder profitability “remains negative.” This suggests that not only are newer entrants facing losses, but their ability to withstand further volatility is diminished.

As a result, these holders have become reactive, selling at the first indication of strength to mitigate losses.

This behavior contributes to turning a rebound into a decline. It also creates a heavy market atmosphere even when conditions improve for a brief period.

Essentially, the supply is not only coming from anxious sellers hitting bids but also from trapped holders awaiting a price recovery.

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Long-term holders show strain, SOPR slips, and Binance inflows rise

A more significant shift is that stress is beginning to appear beyond just short-term participants.

One of the clearer on-chain stress indicators is SOPR (spent output profit ratio), which measures whether coins transferred on-chain are being realized at a profit (above 1) or a loss (below 1).

For long-term holders, SOPR applies the same principle to older coins, typically those held for over 155 days.

CryptoQuant data reveal that the long-term holder SOPR has entered negative territory.

While the annual average LTH SOPR remains high at 1.87, the indicator has dropped below the critical threshold of 1 to 0.88, a situation not observed since the conclusion of the 2023 bear market.

This suggests that long-term holders are now realizing losses on their sales, indicating a gradual accumulation of financial stress within a group that is generally viewed as the market’s stabilizing foundation.

This alone does not constitute a classic “everyone capitulates” signal. Long-term holders are not uniform, and coins can change hands for reasons unrelated to directional fear.

Nonetheless, losses realized from older supply changes modify the nature of a downturn. It indicates that selling pressure is not solely originating from late entrants who pursued the peak and are now attempting to exit.

CryptoQuant highlights another behavioral shift that makes this signal increasingly difficult to overlook.

Despite the growing proportion of realized losses, long-term holders have increased their inflows to Binance in recent weeks.

Long Term Bitcoin Holders Inflow to Binance (Source: CryptoQuant)

Binance is among the most liquid venues in the market. When large holders seek optionality, whether to sell, hedge, or adjust exposure, they typically transfer coins to the venue capable of accommodating size.

In this context, rising inflows from long-term holders can be interpreted as increasing sell-side pressure, even if it has not yet resulted in a single liquidation day.

Big buyers are still active, but short-term demand is losing momentum

Even within this framework, BTC purchasing activity has not vanished.

However, on-chain data indicate a market division between consistent accumulators and a short-term group that is losing momentum.

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, reported that it acquired 2,486 Bitcoin between Feb. 9 and Feb. 16, raising its total holdings to over 717,000 BTC.

The importance of this acquisition lies not just in the headline but in the nature of the demand it signifies.

This reflects spot buying from a prominent institutional holder and establishes a bid that traders can incorporate into their expectations, even if they disagree on its duration.

CryptoQuant data reveal a similar trend among whales, who have increased their holdings even as their exchange inflows rise.

According to the firm, the whale-held BTC supply has grown by 200,000 BTC over the past month to exceed 3.1 million BTC.

Bitcoin Whales Accumulation (Source: CryptoQuant)

The last instance of such a significant move in the market occurred during the April 2025 correction, a time when large-holder purchases likely helped absorb selling pressure and supported the rally that propelled Bitcoin from $76,000 to $126,000.

However, this accumulation is taking place as short-term demand for BTC diminishes.

Alphractal data indicate that short-term holders are not accumulating BTC at the same rate as they did 90 days ago.

The firm reported that the net position change for short-term holders over 90 days remains positive but has been declining swiftly in recent days.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Position Change (Source: Alphractal)

While this means short-term holders are still accumulating, they are doing so at a slower pace than in previous periods.

This trend often precedes consolidation, heightened volatility, or a shift in market dynamics, as the group most likely to pursue upside becomes less aggressive.

What would confirm stabilization, and what would signal deeper downside

In summary, the most defensible interpretation of the current convergence is that Bitcoin is caught between a break-even wall above and a structural cost floor below.

The wall is formed by short-term underwater holders, as indicated by CryptoQuant’s realized price bands, and by overhead supply clusters that convert rallies into selling zones.

Thus, BTC’s next movement depends on whether liquidity conditions and cohort behavior begin to change, rather than on whether a single whale purchase occurs.

If Bitcoin can reclaim the realized price bands of short-term holders and maintain trading above them, it would lessen the motivation for trapped sellers to offload during every rally.

It would also imply that the market is rebuilding a foundation, where new supply is being acquired at prices that do not immediately create overhead resistance.

Conversely, if the price fails to recover those short-term cost bands and stress among long-term holders continues to escalate, the risk of a drawdown becomes more self-reinforcing.

This combination would apply pressure on the market and could push the price of the leading cryptocurrency further downward.

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