Bitcoin value declines today following government acknowledgment that nearly 1 million jobs reported last year were fabricated.

At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the U.S. labor market presented traders with a significant update featuring two timelines: one for the present and another for the previous year.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, and wages continued to rise.

The specifics were provided directly by the BLS, offering a monthly overview that indicates how employment and salaries are evolving.

As I continued to scroll, the past was redefined.

The same report included a substantial annual benchmark adjustment that lowered the job count for March 2025 by 898,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, thereby altering the entire trendline for 2025 downward.

These adjustments are significant as traders form expectations based on the shape of the curve, which has now changed.

This is where Bitcoin becomes relevant.

Crypto traders should pay attention to the jobs report since it can influence the Federal Reserve’s timeline within a single morning. Interest rates affect the pricing of risk globally, and Bitcoin is directly impacted by this pressure, particularly on days when the market is reassessing the cost of capital.

Today, the initial response was observed in the bond market. Immediately following the release, Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing to approximately 4.20% from around 4.15%, a typical indicator of markets leaning towards tighter conditions.

CME FedWatch probabilities for a March rate cut fell to about 6% from roughly 22% prior to the data release.

Bitcoin mirrored this movement, declining by about 3% on the day, trading close to $66,900, as traders adjusted to the shift towards delayed cuts.

#1 Bitcoin BTC $66,612.99 -4.62% Market Cap $1.33T 24h Volume $46.8B All-Time High $126,173.18 Sectors Coin Layer 1 PoW

The essence of this narrative lies in the contrast between the morning’s headline and the revised year.

January hiring appears stable, wages seem robust, and the official unemployment rate stands at 4.3%. The benchmark process also indicates that the economy had fewer jobs in 2025 than initially reported, creating a scenario where traders must hold two perspectives simultaneously.

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Why one jobs report can swing Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s macro dynamics have become more apparent over time, and today’s report illustrates this clearly.

Stronger employment data can elevate yields, and higher yields increase the threshold for risk, with Bitcoin often feeling that pressure first. The market has been approaching record highs, while yields have risen, influenced by a combination of growth optimism and caution regarding rates.

Wage growth is a crucial element of this caution. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% in January to $37.17, and they have risen 3.7% over the past year, figures that keep the discussion about persistent inflation ongoing.

When wage growth remains strong, markets tend to anticipate a Federal Reserve that remains patient, and a patient Fed often translates to tighter financial conditions for an extended period.

Simultaneously, the benchmark revisions introduce a secondary narrative, one that suggests a softer underlying environment.

The BLS adjusted the March 2025 figure downward by 898,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, and it significantly lowered the net job growth for 2025, altering how investors perceive the past year of “resilience.”

Jobs report revision (Source: BLS)

This is why the odds of rate cuts are crucial for Bitcoin traders, and why it is prudent to monitor the futures market as a secondary indicator. Those odds shifted rapidly after the release, and that speed itself contributes to the risk, as it alters liquidity expectations within hours.

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Three paths from here, and what each means for BTC

Markets react to the narrative that the next few data points will confirm, and today has established three plausible trajectories.

1. One trajectory suggests a prolonged period of higher rates, with steady job creation, persistent wage growth, and gradual cooling of inflation. In this scenario, rate cuts are delayed, yields remain high, and Bitcoin’s rallies may struggle to sustain themselves due to the ongoing pressure from the cost of capital.
2. A second trajectory emerges from the revisions, where the downward adjustment for 2025 serves as an initial indication of a broader slowdown that may manifest in future hiring, hours worked, and consumer spending. In this case, rate cuts could be anticipated sooner, providing support for Bitcoin as markets adjust to more favorable conditions.
3. A third trajectory exists between the two, characterized by a soft landing with gradual cooling and eventual rate cuts, resulting in a volatile path in the interim. This scenario could still be beneficial for Bitcoin, though it may feel tumultuous as each significant data release sparks debates over timing.

Two upcoming calendar events are particularly significant for that discussion.

The next inflation report is due on Friday, and the subsequent employment report is set for March 6.

Barron’s highlighted CPI as the next potential catalyst that traders are monitoring, which is logical given the rapid shift in rate cut probabilities today.

Currently, the impact is summarized as follows: a jobs report exceeding expectations led to rising yields, cut probabilities decreased, and Bitcoin experienced a decline in that initial wave of market adjustment.

The more profound insight lies in the benchmark revisions, as they alter the narrative regarding the economy’s past, and that narrative influences expectations about future policy directions.

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