Bitcoin starts to rise following an 11% drop over the weekend as global markets open strongly.

Bitcoin just wiped out over $9,000 in a weekend liquidity trap and the Monday rebound lacks one crucial element

By the time the London desks began to activate this morning, Bitcoin had already experienced a significant shift in off-hours trading.

During the weekend, while the majority of the globe was offline or only partially engaged between errands and late-night browsing, BTC experienced a steep decline in low liquidity.

The chart narrates the tale in a single line: a gradual fade on Friday that escalated into a sharper drop over the weekend, followed by a modest recovery as global markets resumed operations.

On Friday, Bitcoin was approximately $84,274.

By Sunday evening, it had recorded its lowest price of the weekend at $74,712, a drop of $9,562, roughly 11.6% from Friday’s opening figure.

This is the aspect that crypto traders are well acquainted with.

The weekend can feel like a tranquil street, where a single order can shift prices more dramatically than during the week.

Order books become less populated, fewer major players are actively managing their exposure, and moves that might have been absorbed on a weekday can turn into voids.

Stops are triggered, leverage is washed out, and social feeds are filled with the same two sentiments: disbelief and certainty.

Then Monday comes, and the atmosphere shifts.

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As European trading hours commenced, Bitcoin was back around $77,645 this morning, up $2,933, about 3.6%, from the weekend’s low.

Bitcoin still has a pulse.

Bitcoin price moves (Source: TradingView)

After such a rapid decline, any bounce appears as a market checking for remaining buyers. So far, they are still present.

World markets reassess risk valuation

Looking at the broader context, the landscape has been tumultuous.

Traditional markets have been fluctuating amid a combination of rate expectations, commodity volatility, and another wave of political uncertainty.

In the past day, mainstream financial discussions have been largely focused on the ramifications of President Trump’s selection of Warsh as the next Fed chair.

This news has triggered a familiar response: anticipating a tighter future, strengthening the dollar, and perceiving everything else as fragile.

This recurring theme appears in the wider coverage of the nomination and its ripple effects across risk assets.

This movement falls within a broader crypto downturn associated with concerns of a more hawkish Fed, with the dollar strengthening concurrently. This is significant for Bitcoin, even when the crypto market wishes to ignore it.

When macro traders begin to reach for the dollar and reduce risk, Bitcoin is frequently treated as the most liquid “sell it now” asset available.

This dynamic can be intensified during weekend hours when the path of least resistance is downward.

From early Friday to Monday morning, the dollar index (DXY) has risen modestly, increasing approximately 0.66% from about 96.44 to 97.08, which tends to correlate with traders adopting a defensive stance.

During the same period, S&P 500 futures have decreased by around 0.73%, falling from approximately 6,978 to 6,927, with the lowest figures occurring late Sunday, coinciding with Bitcoin’s weekend distress peak on the chart.

Commodities also serve as indicators, and they aren’t signaling comfort yet. Oil has dropped about 5.04% since Friday, from approximately 65.35 to 62.06, while both gold and silver have experienced more severe hits, with gold down approximately 13.18% from about 5,426 to 4,711, and silver down around 30.61% from approximately 117.79 to 81.73.

Silver and gold have seen a slight recovery from their late-Sunday low, increasing about 7% and 5% from the trough, yet oil remains under pressure into Monday, and ES futures are still hovering near the lows. Therefore, the overall chart still appears to be bracing rather than advancing.

Macro price moves (Source: TradingView)

Geopolitical pressures and ETF inflows

Yet, the human narrative here is more straightforward than the macro terminology suggests. It’s the weekend, your phone alerts you, and the price has dropped again. Perhaps you’ve experienced this scenario before.

Maybe you’ve vowed to move away from leverage, yet you still check funding rates.

There were over $800 million in crypto liquidations within the last 24 hours alone.

You convince yourself that you’re just observing, then you start moving collateral. Next, you’re watching a candle print lower and lower, contemplating whether to take action or wait until Monday.

Monday has a way of compelling that decision, as liquidity returns and narratives sharpen.

This time, the initial test is uncomplicated.

Bitcoin has already rebounded from the weekend low, coinciding with the return of the week’s actual volume and genuine participants. If this recovery can sustain itself, the market can begin to argue that the weekend drop was a classic low-liquidity shakeout.

It appears dramatic on the chart and quietly resets positioning for the next phase. If it fails, the weekend low remains in play.

The market also risks repeating the same pattern: a flush into low liquidity hours, followed by another wave of selling when weekday liquidity resumes.

Flows linger in the background as a slow-moving influence on sentiment.

Data monitored by Farside indicates that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows from January 16 through January 30, with a solitary day of modest net inflows on January 26, leading to $3.2 billion exiting funds.

This represents the worst outflow streak since March 2025, creating ongoing directional selling pressure that typically indicates a bearish outlook. It highlights a shift in positioning towards risk-off and compels traders to revalue liquidity and support levels in real-time.

The overarching view is that the world feels more confrontational and precarious than it did a couple of years ago.

Markets incorporate that sentiment, sometimes all at once.

The WEF has placed “geoeconomic confrontation” and interstate conflict near the forefront of its risk assessment for 2026.

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You can sense that tension whenever a political headline emerges and everything shifts in unison. For any rally to endure, we’ll require a quiet week from U.S. President Donald Trump in particular.

For now, however, Bitcoin’s Monday narrative revolves around a weekend plunge that reduced the price from $84,274 to $74,712. Then, a small, persistent recovery back to $77,645 as the week commenced.

Traders, investors, and anyone who stayed up too late observing candles are posing the same question they always do in such times.

Was that the shakeout, or is this the genuine onset of a cyclical bearish downturn?

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