Bitcoin stabilizes within the range of $104,000 to $116,000 as the market approaches a pivotal decision point.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading within a consolidation range of $104,000 to $116,000, with on-chain data highlighting significant levels that may influence the next directional shift.

A report from Glassnode dated Sept. 4 indicates that Bitcoin entered a turbulent downtrend after reaching its all-time high in mid-August, falling to $108,000 before recovering to present levels.

The UTXO Realized Price Distribution indicates that investors accumulated during the downturn, effectively filling the “air gap” between $108,000 and $116,000 through consistent dip-buying activity.

The UTXO Realized Price Distribution chart illustrates that Bitcoin accumulation is concentrated in the $108,000-$116,000 range following the recent price drop from all-time highs. Image: Glassnode

The current trading range aligns with the 0.85 and 0.95 quantile cost basis levels, spanning from $104,100 to $114,300. Historically, this area serves as a consolidation zone after euphoric peaks, often resulting in erratic sideways markets.

A drop below $104,100 would replicate the post-ATH exhaustion phases observed earlier in this cycle, while a recovery above $114,300 would indicate a resurgence of demand control.

Short-term holder trends

Short-term holders are experiencing increasing pressure within this range, with their profit percentage plummeting from over 90% to 42% during the decline to $108,000.

This sharp reversal often incites fear-driven selling from recent buyers, until seller exhaustion allows for rebounds.

Currently, more than 60% of short-term holders have returned to profitability, reflecting a neutral stance compared to recent extremes.

Short-term holder profitability saw a significant decline in August 2025 before recovering to around 60%, indicating a neutral market sentiment. Image: Glassnode

Only a sustained recovery above $114,000-$116,000, where over 75% of short-term holder supply would become profitable, could restore the confidence needed to attract new demand.

Futures market funding rates are currently at $366,000 per hour, positioned neutrally between the established $300,000 baseline and the overheated levels exceeding $1 million observed in March and December 2024.

Further compression below this threshold would confirm a broader decline in demand across derivatives markets.

TradFi demand contraction

Spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows indicate a decline in institutional demand from traditional finance (TradFi) channels.

Since April, Bitcoin ETF inflows have averaged over 3,000 BTC daily but have cooled to a current 14-day average of just 540 BTC as of July. This contraction reflects similar trends in Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, where inflows decreased from 56,000-85,000 ETH daily to 16,600 ETH.

Bitcoin ETF flows have significantly surpassed CME futures positioning changes, suggesting that TradFi investors primarily expressed directional demand through spot exposure rather than derivatives strategies.

This contrasts with Ethereum markets, where changes in CME open interest accounted for over 50% of total ETF inflows, indicating a greater reliance on cash-and-carry arbitrage strategies.

The range-bound trading follows Bitcoin’s third multi-month euphoric phase of the current cycle, marked by strong price momentum that has pushed the majority of supply into profit.

Such periods necessitate ongoing capital inflows to counteract continuous profit-taking, a dynamic that has historically proven unsustainable over the long term.

A drop below $104,000 poses the risk of triggering post-ATH exhaustion, with potential downside targets around the $93,000-$95,000 levels, based on previous cycle patterns.

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