Bitcoin reaches a historically defended price point, with the current mining cost of $67,000 being significant.

Trader Plan C has recently presented a chart that suggests a production-cost model estimating Bitcoin’s marginal mining cost at around $67,000, with historical price movements demonstrating consistent rebounds off that red line.

He remarked that “commodities seldom trade below their production costs.” The premise is straightforward, and the reasoning is clear, yet the underlying reality of Bitcoin’s recent fluctuations is more complex and informative than any single metric can convey.

On February 6, Bitcoin reached an intraday low close to $60,000 before recovering to hover around the $70,000 mark as of the latest update, breaking through the closely monitored $63,000 level that had supported recent bottom-calling narratives.

Nonetheless, the inquiries regarding whether the market is shifting from forced deleveraging to authentic spot-driven price discovery, and what combination of indicators would validate that transition, remain unanswered.

Four significant zones

Instead of focusing on a singular magic number, analysts are integrating multiple frameworks into a demand ladder. Each level signifies a distinct valuation anchor, collectively illustrating where buying pressure may actually arise.

Zone A extends from $70,600 to $66,900. Glassnode identifies this as a concentrated cost-basis cluster utilizing its UTXO Realized Price Distribution model, indicating a significant accumulation of coins that were last transacted within this price range.

Following Bitcoin’s decline below its True Market Mean of approximately $80,200, this cluster became the closest on-chain absorption zone.

Glassnode warns that spot volumes remain fundamentally weak, suggesting that any relief rally may be merely corrective noise unless genuine spot demand returns.

The implication is that rebounds from this zone, driven solely by leveraged positions, are unlikely to hold.

Zone B focuses on $63,000 and holds significance from a behavioral standpoint rather than an on-chain perspective.

Research from Galaxy Digital indicates that a 50% decline from Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high near $126,296 aligns almost precisely with $63,000, establishing a clear, round-trip threshold that reflects previous bear-market capitulation points.

A dip below $63,000 can be interpreted in two ways: either support has been breached, or the market executed a classic capitulation probe before discovering genuine demand.

Which interpretation is accurate will depend on subsequent developments in flows and derivatives.

Zone C encompasses $58,000 to $56,000, where two significant cycle-bottom anchors converge.

Galaxy explicitly identifies the 200-week moving average at around $58,000 and the Realized Price near $56,000 as levels that have historically indicated durable cycle bottoms.

Glassnode independently places the Realized Price at approximately $55,800. Both frameworks concur: if the current rebound falters and BTC declines further, this is the magnet zone where long-term capital has typically re-engaged.

Zone D introduces production-cost models, where Plan C’s chart resides, but only as one estimate among several.

Other models suggest the average production cost is around $87,000, indicating that spot has been trading significantly below that estimate, putting pressure on miners.

Meanwhile, the difficulty-per-issuance model highlighted by Plan C estimates the cost proxy in the high $60,000s. The distinction is important: “commodities don’t trade below cost” is directionally informative but not a definitive floor for Bitcoin.

Miners can operate at a loss in the short term by liquidating treasuries, employing hedges, or simply enduring until the difficulty adjusts downward and reduces marginal costs.

Production cost functions more as a stress indicator that triggers supply responses, such as miner capitulation or treasury liquidation, before equilibrium is restored.

Bitcoin price chart illustrates demand zones and key technical anchors including the True Market Mean, production-cost proxies, and the recent intraday low near $60,000.

What rebound confirmation truly entails

Identifying a local bottom requires more than merely maintaining a level. The most reliable signals encompass derivatives, on-chain stress, institutional flows, and mining dynamics.

Derivatives markets are signaling fear. Data from Deribit reveals a 25-delta risk-reversal skew of approximately -13%, an inverted implied-volatility term structure, and negative funding rates. These conditions are indicative of classic protection-bid scenarios.

A rebound gains credibility when the skew retreats from extreme negatives, implied volatility normalizes, and funding rates turn sustainably positive.

On-chain realized losses remain high. Glassnode reports the seven-day moving average exceeding $1.26 billion per day, consistent with forced deleveraging.

A bullish shift would see realized losses peak and begin to decline while the price stabilizes within the $66,900-$70,600 range, indicating seller exhaustion rather than a temporary halt.

Institutional flows present a challenge. Data from Farside Investors indicates nearly $690 million in monthly net outflows as of February 5, adding to the $1.6 billion in net outflows recorded in January.

Flow reversals do not need to become dramatically positive, as even a slowdown to flat would be significant in a thin-liquidity environment where allocators drove much of the previous rally.

Mining stress is reaching a critical point. TheMinerMag reported that the hash price fell below $32 per petahash per second, with difficulty expected to decrease by approximately 13.37% at the next adjustment.

This relief could stabilize hashrate and alleviate miner sell pressure, but only if the price remains stable long enough for the adjustment to take effect.

Signal bucket	Metric	Latest reading / regime (as of press time)	Bullish confirmation (what change you need)	Bearish continuation (what to fear)	Source
Derivatives	25D risk reversal (skew)	Short-dated skew as low as ~-13% (puts bid / downside protection in demand)	Skew lifts toward 0 (less demand for downside hedges) and stays there for multiple sessions	Skew stays deeply negative (continued demand for protection)	Deribit Insights / Block Scholes “Crypto Derivatives: Analytics Report – Week 6” (Feb 4, 2026). (Deribit Insights)
Derivatives	Perp funding rates	Funding below 0% / BTC funding pushed negative (bearish positioning)	Funding turns sustainably positive (not just a one-day flip)	Funding stays negative or whipsaws (fragile bounce / short pressure persists)	Deribit Insights / Block Scholes (Week 6, 2026). (Deribit Insights)
Volatility	IV term structure	ATM IV term structure inverted (near-term fear priced above longer tenors)	Structure normalizes upward-sloping as spot stabilizes and panic premium fades	Structure stays inverted (market keeps pricing near-term stress)	Deribit Insights / Block Scholes (Week 6, 2026). (Deribit Insights)
On-chain stress	Realized losses (7D SMA)	7D SMA > $1.26B/day (elevated forced selling / stress)	Realized losses peak then trend down while price holds Zone A ($66.9K–$70.6K)	Losses keep rising into bounces (supply still hitting bid; “relief rallies” vulnerable)	Glassnode “The Week On-chain – Bears In Control” (Feb 4, 2026). (insights.glassnode.com)
Flows	US spot BTC ETF net flows (month-to-date)	Feb MTD (Feb 2–5): -$689.2M (~-$690M) net (561.8 – 272.0 – 544.9 – 434.1)	Outflows decelerate to flat/positive (even “less bad” helps in thin liquidity)	Outflows accelerate (allocator selling overwhelms spot bid)	Farside Investors daily flow table (Feb 2–5, 2026). (farside.co.uk)
Mining	Hashprice	Hashprice fell below $32/PH/s (profitability stress)	Hashprice stabilizes/improves after difficulty relief and price holds	Hashprice falls further (higher likelihood of miner selling/treasury drawdowns)	TheMinerMag (Feb 5, 2026). (TheMinerMag)
Mining	Next difficulty adjustment	Projected difficulty drop ~13.37% (protocol-side relief, near-term)	Difficulty relief + stable hashrate (less capitulation; reduced forced selling)	Continued hashrate drop / sustained stress despite adjustment	TheMinerMag (Feb 5, 2026). (TheMinerMag)

Three potential scenarios

The first possible scenario is the establishment of a local bottom. Support ranges from $66,900 to $70,600 as the on-chain cluster absorbs supply. Derivatives normalize, flows stabilize, and realized losses decrease.

Upside would initially aim to reclaim the True Market Mean around $80,200 before encountering overhead supply from underwater holders.

The second scenario involves a volatile drift downward. Galaxy sees a significant likelihood that BTC fluctuates near $70,000 before testing the $56,000-$58,000 zone in the coming weeks or months.

This aligns with a market where leverage has been flushed, but spot demand remains lacking, which is Glassnode’s primary caution. Volatility continues, and relief rallies fail to maintain momentum.

The final scenario is a deeper capitulation. Another wave of forced selling, potentially triggered by ongoing ETF outflows or macro risk adjustments, could push BTC through the current zones.

In this case, $56,000-$58,000 is less a target and more the level at which long-term capital has historically entered with conviction.

The genuine transition

The central narrative revolves around whether Bitcoin is transitioning from leverage-driven pricing back to spot-led price discovery.

Glassnode portrays the market as susceptible until spot participation resumes, and that participation will not arise solely from derivatives normalization. Production-cost models provide a valuable perspective on miner economics, but they illustrate a supply-response mechanism rather than a price floor.

The commodity analogy falters when difficulty can adjust, and miners can finance operations through drawdowns.

Bitcoin derivatives chart indicates a 25-delta risk reversal skew reaching negative 13 percent and funding rates turning negative during the February washout, reflecting extreme fear conditions.

ETF behavior now holds macro significance. Flows are substantial enough that capitulation increasingly manifests as shifts in allocator sentiment rather than merely funding rate changes on offshore exchanges.

The January outflows were not a result of retail panic, but rather institutional de-risking, and reversing that trend necessitates catalysts beyond technical rebounds.

Bitcoin has regained much of the ground lost during the washout, but converting those levels into sustained demand is a different undertaking.

The data presents a ladder of zones where demand could arise, a checklist of confirming signals, and a reminder that production cost serves as the primary stress indicator rather than a definitive floor.

Whether $60,297 signifies a capitulation low or merely another phase in a deeper correction hinges on subsequent developments in flows, derivatives, and the readiness of spot buyers to engage amid ongoing fear.

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