Bitcoin Reaches $73,000? Key Price Levels to Monitor in a Bear Market

Bitcoin is steadily descending the liquidity staircase, with the next significant step located around $85,000.

This figure is not derived from Fibonacci retracements, moving average crossovers, or any other technical analysis benchmarks.

It originates from a straightforward grid of horizontal bands, based on elements that genuinely influence markets: order-book depth, leverage positioning, psychological interest points, and historical price trends over an 18-month period.

Essentially, these represent the prices at which traders establish their stop-loss and take-profit levels.

On a 30-minute chart, these bands create thick channels, and throughout the past year, Bitcoin has interacted with them like rungs on a ladder, pausing, stalling, and reversing at the same price points repeatedly.

In the last month, that ladder has been trending downward.

From complacent highs to a vacuum below

The upper white band marks the point where Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,000. It traded within this range from May to October, experiencing two minor dips below in September. After breaking below during the tariff crash on October 11, it ultimately fell through completely at the beginning of this month.

Bitcoin all-time high channel

At the onset of the decline, Bitcoin dipped to a crucial price point at $106,400, which I have discussed extensively. Historically, when price wicks down on the 30-minute chart in this manner, it serves as a foreboding indicator that it will eventually return to that level. This instance was no exception.

Price action began to cluster at the upper section of the tight yellow band, approximately between $112,000 and $106,400. Every effort to break higher into the subsequent set of white lines faced challenges. The channel functioned as a ceiling that absorbed buying pressure.

Start of the slide below $113,000

When that ceiling finally broke, it did so abruptly.

As bids diminished at that band, Bitcoin did what it typically does in these grids: it sought the next area of resting liquidity. The drop through the low $100,000s into the mid-$90,000s appeared drastic on lower timeframes, yet on the channel map, it resembled a leap from one floor to another.

Bitcoin loses $100,000

Price then lingered in the $97,000–$100,000 range. This area had previously been identified months prior as a dense structure of orange lines. The psychological support level at $100,000 surrendered without resistance.

$100,000 to $93,000 was where spot buyers had previously shown interest and where derivative traders had consistently built and unwound positions. Once again, the market treated it as a staging area rather than a destination.

Once that zone was exhausted, the staircase pulled Bitcoin lower.

The current battlefield: the purple band

Fast forward to the latest charts. Bitcoin now fluctuates in the low $90,000s and high $80,000s, within a broad purple channel.

You can observe how the previous supports have transformed into resistance. Levels around $92,000–$93,000, which previously supported price on the way down, now limit intraday rebounds.

Each return attracts selling, indicating that trapped longs are utilizing any strength to exit and that new shorts are positioning against a level they trust.

Bitcoin targets $85,000 next

Below, the purple lines outline a series of shelves: $89,000, $87,000, and the last significant one at approximately $85,000. These shelves are not random.

They represent prices at which liquidity has consistently clustered since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Market makers recycled inventory there, whales placed bids there, and funding and open interest shifted there. In essence, this is where the market has established a history.

Bitcoin is already positioned near the mid-section of that band. Volatility has diminished compared to the rapid decline that cut through the $97,000–$100,000 zone.

This change in behavior often precedes a second leg, as participants await the market’s decision on direction before committing new risk. If selling pressure resurfaces, there is little in the way between current prices and the bottom of the purple channel.

Why $85,000 matters

The $85,000 area is significant for three reasons.

First, it signifies the deepest pool of liquidity within the current purple band. The concentration of levels around $85,000–$86,000 indicates that a substantial amount of historical positioning converges there. Markets tend to gravitate towards such magnets, particularly after a series of unsuccessful attempts to reclaim higher levels.

Second, the route between $89,000 and $85,000 is relatively unobstructed on the grid. There are fewer intermediate bands, suggesting that once the current shelf gives way, price has the potential to accelerate until it encounters the next cluster of orders.

Recent history supports this notion: the break below $110,000 did not descend gradually; it dropped sharply to the next significant zone.

Third, reaching that level would complete a measured move that reflects the previous leg down from the $109,000–$103,000 range. The market often operates in symmetrical swings when seeking out new liquidity pockets. Traders monitoring these structures may view $85,000 as a logical endpoint for the current sequence.

None of this guarantees a visit. What it provides is a roadmap. If Bitcoin continues to adhere to the same grid it has respected for over 18 months, $85,000 becomes the next stop in a narrative that has already outlined several chapters in advance.

What lies below the purple floor

If Bitcoin does reach the bottom of the purple channel, the narrative does not conclude there. The grid extends further, into a terrain of green lines that begin around $84,000 and extend toward the high $70,000s.

Bitcoin bear market channels

If that band fails, focus will shift to the pink cluster between $77,000 and $74,000. Following that, the violet channel would come next, where the line spacing tightens again in that area, indicating that the market spent considerable time transacting there previously.

This is a notable price point. It is where Bitcoin established a new all-time high just before the last halving, and it is slightly above the 2021 high. $73,000 served as a ceiling heading into 2025 and could very well act as our support lifeline in 2026-2027.

Long-term holders who perceive Bitcoin’s current correction as a buying opportunity may have resting bids in that area. Short-term traders who sold during the breakdown from $100,000 may also opt to secure profits there.

For those with a fragile disposition, I suggest looking away now.

The final line on my map extends as low as $49,800. This level represents the lowest significant shelf in the current structure. If the market ever reaches it, sentiment will likely feel depleted.

However, from a channel perspective, it would still be a touch of an old liquidity pool, not an exploration into uncharted territory.

Bitcoin bear market bottom targets

The bear market, if we are indeed in one, could bottom around this price. $49,800 is a level that has been rigorously defended at times throughout the last two cycles.

Falling below that would likely incite extreme panic among Bitcoin holders and new ETF buyers alike. It would feel as though the sky is falling to any bulls who entered after 2020 or who do not employ a dollar-cost-averaging strategy.

Personally, I consider $73,400 as the bear market floor for this cycle. It appears bearish enough to be realistic. There’s history, liquidity, and support in that vicinity.

A roadmap, not a prophecy

The key to utilizing these channels is discipline. They do not indicate that Bitcoin must decline to $85,000, nor do they suggest it cannot first rebound to $97,000 or $100,000. They provide a framework for viewing the market as a series of probable reaction zones rather than a random sequence.

Currently, the narrative on the 30-minute chart is straightforward.

Bitcoin has been stepping down from one liquidity shelf to the next for weeks. It now fluctuates within a purple corridor where past positioning has been substantial. The bottom of that corridor is near $85,000, and the layers beneath it, in the low $80,000s and mid $70,000s, are already outlined.

If the selling persists, these are the areas where the market is most likely to decelerate, consolidate, and potentially reverse. For traders who understand how to position around those moments, the map is already established.

None of this is intended as personal financial advice. These are my price levels to monitor for Bitcoin’s next movement. It just so happens that Bitcoin has consistently reached them since early 2024. What will transpire next, not even Satoshi knows.

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