Bitcoin reached $74,000, but a drop below $70,000 may lead it back to $60,000.

Bitcoin decreased to $63,030 following US-Israel strikes on Iran, which initiated a risk-off reaction throughout the markets. Subsequently, BTC surged to $74,000 intraday on Mar. 4, marking an approximate 17% recovery.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin is priced at $73,613, reflecting a 7.7% increase over the last 24 hours. This movement has reclaimed a significant portion of the selloff; however, its sustainability hinges on several levels and liquidity indicators identified as crucial by on-chain data.

To maintain the upward trend, BTC must convert the $70,000 weekly-close resistance into support. If not, $70,000 will continue to act as an overhead distribution zone, with the $60,000-$69,000 demand area remaining the primary bid below.

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Glassnode identifies $70,000 as the immediate resistance level that BTC has consistently struggled to close above on a weekly basis since early February.

The 1-week to 1-month holder cost basis is situated near $70,000, forming what Glassnode describes as an overhead distribution zone, a ±2% range from $68,500 to $71,500, where recent purchasers may opt to sell as they reach breakeven or slight profit.

Above this, $75,000 stands out as a significant gamma magnet in options positioning. Approximately $2.3 billion in negative gamma is concentrated at the $75,000 strike across expiries, with $1.8 billion in the Mar. 27 expiry alone.

The net call premium of $14.5 million has been traded at $75,000 across the next three monthly expiries, with two-thirds of that volume accumulated in the past week.

This is not merely a round number: options positioning renders $75,000 a liquidity and gravity level. If the price approaches this point, it requires substantial spot demand to support it, or it risks becoming a chop zone.

Support structures are weaker below current levels. The intraday low around $67,500 acts as the “bounce failed” threshold. A break below this level could lead to a significant unwinding of the move.

Glassnode noted last week that the $60,000-$69,000 range is the primary demand zone beneath, indicating that this is where genuine bids are likely to emerge if the rally diminishes.

Utilizing the $63,030 to $74,000 range, maintaining 70% of the bounce necessitates staying above $70,709. Retaining 60% requires holding $69,612. These levels align closely with Glassnode’s $68,500–$71,500 overhead distribution zone.

If BTC remains above $70,700, it is likely to preserve most of the bounce. Conversely, if it falls below $69,600, the market would be relinquishing a significant portion, and $70,000 would revert to functioning as supply rather than support.

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Demand is thinned

On-chain metrics indicate that buy-side demand remains subdued despite the price recovery.

The 30-day simple moving average of realized profit has decreased from over $1 billion per day to approximately $370 million per day, representing a 63% decline.

Bitcoin's 30-day moving average of realized profit fell from over $1 billion per day to roughly $370 million by early March 2026.

Glassnode interprets this as a reduction in buy-side liquidity. A “hold-the-gains” scenario necessitates that realized profit ceases to contract and begins to expand, indicating that buyers are prepared to transact at a premium. Without this, the bounce may fall into weak hands.

The percentage of supply in profit is around 57%, below its minus-one standard deviation threshold near 60%. Glassnode compares this stressed environment to the initial phases of the May 2022 and November 2018 bear markets.

For the rally to sustain, the percentage of supply in profit must reclaim 60% and trend upward, signaling an exit from the stressed environment.

Coinbase leads spot liquidity, ETF flows stabilize

Spot flow data presents a nuanced perspective.

Selling pressure has been easing over the past few days. The Coinbase spot cumulative volume delta has begun to recover, suggesting early bid-side activity.

However, Binance and overall exchange flows remain weak, although Glassnode notes they are “no longer accelerating lower.”

Coinbase spot cumulative volume delta rebounded from deep negative territory in early March 2026, while Binance and aggregate exchange flows remained weak.

This rebound will only hold if bid absorption expands beyond Coinbase. Otherwise, it will be a localized relief rally rather than a market-wide spot reversal. The pattern indicates that institutional or US-based buyers are re-engaging, but international or retail flows have yet to follow suit.

Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced sustained outflows leading up to the selloff, but flows have stabilized with early inflows reemerging. On Mar. 2, there were $458.2 million in net inflows, followed by $225.2 million on Mar. 3, according to data from Farside Investors.

Glassnode emphasizes that it is premature to confirm a lasting reversal, but ongoing recovery in inflows would provide significant support on the spot side.

Supportive conditions include multiple days of net inflows and the 7-day average shifting upward from negative. The risk of reversal remains if flows revert to negative while the price remains below or around the $70,000 overhead level.

The stabilization is promising, but consistency is more critical than the initial turnaround.

Derivatives: leverage flushed, $75,000 as a magnet

The perpetual directional premium continues to compress toward cycle lows, indicating cautious leverage and subdued bullish sentiment.

Glassnode interprets this as leverage being flushed, but also as a sign that leveraged bulls are still hesitant.

A healthy hold would see premiums stabilize while spot conditions improve.

A fragile hold would indicate that price increases are primarily driven by derivatives, while spot remains weak. Thus far, the setup leans toward the former, with leverage unwinding rather than aggressively re-accumulating.

Options positioning has changed significantly since the lows on Feb. 28. The put/call ratio shifted from 1.89 to 0.4, reflecting unwinding of hedges and increased call activity. Skew compressed from the mid-20s to the low-10s, suggesting that downside fear has diminished.

The concentration at the $75,000 strike is a crucial detail. Approximately $2.3 billion in negative gamma is situated at that strike across expiries, with $1.8 billion concentrated in the Mar. 27 expiry.

The net call premium of $14.5 million has been traded at $75,000 across the next three monthly expiries, with two-thirds of the premium accumulated over the past week.

If the price approaches $75,000, the gamma concentration creates a liquidity and gravity effect. Without substantial spot demand to support it, that level could become a chop zone instead of a breakout point.

What holds, what breaks

Three scenarios outline the potential outcomes.

The first scenario occurs if BTC remains above $70,700 and begins to show stronger spot and ETF support. In this case, the $70,000 level could convert to support, and $75,000 would become the next target. Weekly closes above $70,000 would confirm this shift.

The second scenario unfolds if BTC fluctuates between $68,500 and $71,500 and fails to achieve weekly closes above $70,000, risking the move being a relief rally into overhead distribution. Realized profit must re-expand, and spot bid absorption needs to broaden beyond Coinbase for this range to resolve positively.

<pLastly, a third scenario arises if BTC loses the local bounce structure around $67,500 and $70,000 remains overhead. The market would likely revisit the $60,000-$69,000 demand zone as the primary bid. This would signify a failed bounce rather than a successful hold.

The data indicates a fragile recovery with pockets of strength, such as improving Coinbase flows, stabilizing ETF inflows, and normalizing options skew.

However, the broader market remains skeptical.

The $70,000 level is not merely a number; it is also where recent buyers are positioned on cost basis, where weekly closes have repeatedly failed, and where the market will assess whether this bounce has continuation or fades into overhead supply.

Weekly closes and the breadth of spot flow will provide clarity on this matter in the coming days.

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