Bitcoin poised to reach $80,000 amid rising oil prices and Iran’s warning of $200 per barrel.

Bitcoin remained close to $70,000 even as oil prices briefly approached $100 a barrel, a scenario that would typically have caused a significant decline in the cryptocurrency market according to conventional macroeconomic patterns.

As per data from CryptoSlate, the leading digital currency experienced a slight increase of 0.3% over the past 24 hours, peaking at $71,337 before retracting to $69,803 at the time of reporting.

Oil prices surged, with WTI crude increasing by 4.79% to $92.04 and Brent crude rising by 5.24% to $97.22.

This increase followed heightened shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying worries about a prolonged supply shock. Iran notably cautioned the global community to brace for oil prices reaching $200 a barrel.

However, Bitcoin’s price stability in light of these threats signifies a notable shift from previous weeks, during which rising oil prices had driven the cryptocurrency market downward amid inflation concerns.

Despite these ongoing fears in the market, Bitcoin has demonstrated enhanced resilience, remaining within a defined range rather than declining.

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Why is Bitcoin price not falling this time?

A key factor contributing to Bitcoin’s price stability during the recent rise in oil prices was the reduction of speculative excess in the market.

Data from CoinShares indicated that BTC leverage ratios had decreased from approximately 33% in October 2025 to 25% by early March, returning to levels closer to long-term averages.

According to the firm:

“The market structure entering the crisis was already considerably cleaner, following an estimated $30 billion of whale distribution over the preceding five months that pushed valuations and technical indicators into oversold territory. With leverage diminished and much of the motivated selling already completed, the market was better equipped to accommodate new demand.”

In addition, spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have also become less adverse at a pivotal moment in the market.

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According to CoinShares, digital-asset investment products attracted over $1 billion in the first five days of March following five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling around $4 billion.

Data from Glassnode also supported this, noting that inflows into 12 US spot Bitcoin ETFs are stabilizing, with their 7-day moving average returning to positive territory after weeks of persistent institutional outflows.

Bitcoin ETF Netflows (Source: Glassnode)

Furthermore, Santiment’s data indicates a market that has been more robust than its sentiment in recent months, although it still faces fragile conviction.

According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV shows that long-term returns on the blockchain are approximately aligned with levels observed in the last week of 2022.

Bitcoin Long-Term Returns (Source: Santiment)

At that time, the 365-day MVRV was significantly negative following the FTX collapse, yet Bitcoin increased by 67% over the subsequent three months.

Santiment noted that the current divergence is significant even with markedly different macro conditions and the additional influence of Strategy’s aggressive accumulation.

Simultaneously, demand in the spot market for BTC has begun to recover, and cumulative volume delta has increased as buyers absorb sell-side liquidity across major exchanges.

This combination helps clarify why Bitcoin has not responded to the oil price increase in the same manner as it typically has in earlier phases of the cycle.

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Can BTC sustain its current resilience?

Given this context, the pressing question is whether BTC can maintain its current resilience and potentially rise further under existing constraints.

Importantly, the on-chain data supports the notion that the leading cryptocurrency could continue to exhibit strength if current indicators remain favorable.

Data from Alphractal revealed that liquidation levels are becoming clearer, with most open positions now favoring the long side. Bitcoin had previously been fluctuating within a volatile sideways range, causing liquidations in both long and short positions.

Bitcoin Liquidation Levels (Source: Alphractal)

According to the firm, the maximum pain point for longs is around $61,000, while shorts are concentrated near $75,000.

This creates pressure points at both ends of the range and helps define the market’s next move.

Additionally, Glassnode observed that BTC is currently forming an accumulation cluster near the midpoint of its $62,800 to $72,600 range, although its intensity remains below that of previous episodes that led to stronger expansions.

This is corroborated by data from Alphractal, which indicated that Bitcoin’s RVT Ratio is increasing.

The Realized Value to Transactions Ratio compares Realized Cap with the daily adjusted on-chain transfer volume. An increasing reading typically suggests that coins are circulating less on-chain, indicating more capital is being held rather than transacted, and weaker network activity relative to the amount of stored value.

Bitcoin RVT Ratio (Source: Alphractal)

According to the firm, the 28-day moving average of the indicator suggests that capital held in Bitcoin continues to grow at a faster rate than on-chain economic activity.

Historically, such phases often coincide with accumulation or reduced on-chain demand rather than with widespread speculative overheating.

What next for BTC?

If BTC continues to exhibit its current price resilience, futures trader positioning of the asset allows for potential upward movement.

According to Glassnode, perpetual futures funding has turned negative, indicating an increase in short positioning. In previous instances, this setup has provided the market with room to rally higher if spot buying strengthens.

Data from CME Group revealed approximately $660 million in Bitcoin call open interest in March, compared to about $240 million in puts. Glassnode added that roughly $2 billion of negative gamma is concentrated around the $75,000 strike, with about $1.8 billion of that expiring on March 27.

If Bitcoin surpasses the low $70,000s and enters that zone, dealer hedging could facilitate a move toward $80,000.

These indicators suggest that traders have reduced aggressive short-dated hedging, but have not yet established strong directional conviction regarding an immediate breakout.

The post Bitcoin set up for rip to $80,000 even as oil prices surge and Iran threatens $200 a barrel appeared first on CryptoSlate.