Bitcoin poised for significant shift as whales accumulate 56,227 BTC while small wallets liquidate – this trend typically concludes in a specific manner

Bitcoin has surged into 2026, reaching its highest point in more than a month by surpassing $94,000 on January 5, indicating a possible conclusion to the stagnation that affected the crypto market in late 2025.

This increase signifies a notable change in sentiment, especially since the leading digital asset concluded the previous year on a low note while equities achieved record highs.

However, this trend seems to have reversed, as the initial trading sessions of the new year have produced a modest yet significant turnaround.

At this point, Bitcoin is up over 3% year-to-date and is exhibiting renewed strength, propelled by a combination of favorable macroeconomic factors, increasing institutional demand, and a more orderly derivatives market.

The macro shift

This emerging recovery is supported by a changing macroeconomic landscape in the United States. As we enter 2026, two complementary trends are reshaping the investment environment: a steepening yield curve and a structurally weakened dollar.

Analysts at Bitfinex informed CryptoSlate that the US Treasury curve has decisively moved out of the inverted state that characterized the 2022–2024 period.

This normalization is driven by expectations for eventual policy easing at the front end, combined with elevated long-dated yields due to inflation uncertainty and fiscal concerns.

They added that this configuration signifies a repricing of duration and credibility risk rather than a resurgence of growth optimism. In this context, financial conditions remain tighter than what headline rate cuts would imply, creating a backdrop where liquidity improves only in a selective manner.

At the same time, the US dollar has significantly weakened.

While the fundamental aspects of the greenback remain intact—backed by deep capital markets and demand for Treasuries—the current depreciation seems to be managed, reflecting policy preferences aimed at enhancing trade competitiveness.

This combination of a softer dollar and elevated long-end yields benefits assets with “real” or defensive characteristics and near-term pricing power.

Bitcoin, often regarded as a hedge against fiat debasement and liquidity expansion, stands to gain directly from this environment.

Institutional Bitcoin appetite returns

In addition to the macro headwinds turning into tailwinds, the specific catalysts behind Bitcoin’s price movement are increasingly driven by institutional factors.

The pace of ETF-driven selling, which subdued price movement late last year, has significantly slowed as 2026 began. As liquidity conditions improve in the early weeks of the new year, the market is already feeling the effects.

In just the first two trading days of the year, data from Coinperps indicates that Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $1 billion in inflows, signaling that institutional capital is shifting back into the asset class.

Moreover, this renewed interest is not confined to passive funds, as Bitcoin treasury firms are also acquiring BTC.

Bitcoin Treasury Companies BTC Purchases (Source: Capriole)

Charles Edwards, the CEO of Capriole, remarked:

“Bitcoin treasury companies have just flipped to net buying again…Institutions are once again net buyers of Bitcoin.”

Indeed, the market has witnessed a growing number of BTC treasury firms announcing new purchases recently.

For perspective, Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate BTC holder, reaffirmed its long-term commitment to the asset with another substantial purchase, raising its total holdings to 673,783 BTC.

Concurrently, asset management firm Strive disclosed that it had acquired 101.8 BTC in late December, increasing its total holdings to 7,626.8 BTC.

These acquisitions represent a significant turnaround from the end of last year when these firms’ activities had slowed.

Market mechanics

Market structure data indicates that this rally is founded on a more robust foundation than the speculative enthusiasm of prior cycles.

According to blockchain analysis platform Checkonchain, Bitcoin’s ascent above $94,000 was accompanied by a squeeze on short positions, yet the broader derivatives landscape remains “surprisingly clean.”

BTC futures open interest has plummeted from a peak of $98 billion in October to approximately $58 billion today, indicating a substantial deleveraging event has already taken place.

Bitcoin Futures Open Interest (Source: Checkonchain)

Furthermore, annualized funding rates are resting at around 5.8%, aligning with the long-term median.

This neutrality suggests the market has reverted to a spot-driven regime, where price increases are propelled by genuine demand rather than excessive leverage.

Beneath the surface, a significant supply redistribution is affirming the bullish narrative. Data from blockchain intelligence firm Santiment indicates a “very bullish” divergence in market behavior: “whales” are aggressively accumulating while small retail wallets are exiting.

Since December 17, large stakeholders—specifically those holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin—have collectively added 56,227 BTC to their balances. Santiment observes that this accumulation marked the asset’s local bottom.

Bitcoin Whales and Sharks Accumulation (Source: Santiment)

Importantly, this buying pressure from large entities occurs while retail traders remain cautious. Over the past 24 hours, wallets containing less than 0.01 BTC have begun to take profits, seemingly anticipating the current price movement to be a “bull trap” or “fool’s rally.”

According to Santiment, markets typically trend in the opposite direction of small retail wallets. The combination of whales accumulating and retail selling creates a setup that the firm labels as “very bullish,” as coins shift from weaker hands to long-term holders.

Additionally, James Coutt, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, emphasized the technical alignment supporting the move.

“Finally seeing proper bullish alignment, not just one indicator firing,” Coutt stated, pointing to a DeMark 13 exhaustion signal on December 31 and a bullish flip in the ‘Trend Chameleon’ indicator.

He noted that this specific liquidity regime has historically yielded median 180-day returns of nearly 26% with high win rates.

The path to six digits

In light of these developments, BTC traders are already positioning themselves for the rally to extend well beyond current levels.

Since January 2, there has been a significant increase in interest for January expiry call options with a $100,000 strike price on Deribit.

Jake Ostrovskis, head of Wintermute OTC, noted that call buying is dominating desk flow, with the “aggressive put premium” finally subsiding.

Data from CryptoQuant’s analyst Darkfost reinforces this optimistic outlook.

Binance Bitcoin-Stablecoin Ratio (Source: CryptoQuant)

The analyst indicated that the Bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio on Binance—a crucial metric for evaluating potential buying power—is hovering around levels last observed during the March 2025 correction. Notably, this was just prior to Bitcoin embarking on a rally to its all-time high of roughly $126,000.

He also highlighted that stablecoin reserves have increased by about $1 billion recently, signaling a loaded “dry powder” keg ready for deployment.

According to him:

“This shift could signify the early stages of a gradual deployment of sidelined liquidity, which would represent a very positive signal for the market.”

While some caution remains, the immediate setup suggests higher prices.

With Bitcoin reclaiming systematic levels and US-session selling pressure diminishing, the path of least resistance appears to be upward. If the cryptocurrency can maintain its momentum above $94,000, the psychological $100,000 barrier may be the next hurdle to overcome.

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