Bitcoin must regain this essential area promptly, or a return to the mid-range around $61,000 may commence.

Bitcoin continues to approach $71,500, eventually the door will open

This week, Bitcoin executed a familiar yet tense maneuver; it rebounded sufficiently to silence the doubters and amplify the voices of dip buyers once more.

Following the decline to approximately $60,000, the price has managed to ascend back to a level that has become a focal point, the $71,500 area.

It has already reached this point three times.

Each occasion saw the market pause, traders engage, and the rally lose momentum. Currently, with Bitcoin hovering around $70,900, it appears poised to test $71,500 again, making this a moment worth observing, even for those who do not actively trade or check prices frequently.

Some price levels resonate more like collective memories than mere figures on a display.

$71,500 is one of those levels.

<Bitcoin’s attempt to retake $71,500

Why $71,500 keeps appearing

When a price level is tested repeatedly, it transforms into a sort of communal gathering place.

Everyone can see it on their charts, but not everyone discusses it in group conversations or has a strategy for it.

This distinction is significant because Bitcoin operates on both emotional and mathematical factors.

As the price nears a level like $71,500 following a sharp decline, a mix of individuals emerges: those looking to exit, those eager to enter, and those seeking validation. This creates friction, which in turn leads to the stagnation visible on the chart.

For traders, this is where rapid decisions are made, stop-loss orders are placed tightly, and leverage is applied boldly.

For long-term holders, this is where narratives are reshaped. A market that struggles to surpass $71,500 begins to feel fragile, while a market that reclaims it starts to feel restored.

This emotional shift is why the zone is significant.

The lines on my chart are not mere decoration

The horizontal lines on the chart represent the upper and lower boundaries of channels I have monitored over the past two years.

Bitcoin price action and channels over the last week

These are areas where Bitcoin has consistently found support or encountered resistance. They are derived from a combination of historical leverage patterns, order-book dynamics, psychological price points, and the familiar entry and exit levels that many traders utilize when trading with significant positions.

I am not suggesting this is a magical solution; it serves as a roadmap. It allows me to transition from speculation to strategic planning.

At this moment, that roadmap indicates that $71,500 is the next crucial checkpoint.

If you have been following my analysis throughout this cycle, you will recognize the recurring theme. I have dedicated months to discussing how cycle peaks develop, how risk dissipates from the system, and how bear markets often seem clear in retrospect but rarely appear obvious in real-time.

Last fall, I contended that the market was exhibiting signs that the cycle had already peaked, even while the sentiment remained euphoric. This argument is detailed in ‘Time is up: The case for why Bitcoin bear market cycle started at $126k.’

I also addressed the time frame that typically surrounds a cycle peak and whether ETFs could alter that historical pattern in ‘Bitcoin’s cycle clock points to a final high by late October, will ETFs rewrite history?.’

Related Reading

Time is up: The case for why Bitcoin bear market cycle started at $126k

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Oct 16, 2025 · Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright

Subsequently, I made a statement that unsettled many, suggesting that Bitcoin could still decline toward $49,000 during this downturn phase. This thesis is explored in ‘Akiba’s medium term $49k Bitcoin bear thesis – why this winter will be the shortest yet,’ and I followed up in January when I began observing the kind of structural stress that can accelerate sell-offs, in ‘I predicted Bitcoin falling to $49k this year and January delivered some very concerning red flags.’
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Most recently, after the downturn intensified, I noted that my $49k perspective remained intact, while also highlighting that Bitcoin was nearing a zone where I anticipated genuine demand to reemerge, in ‘My $49k Bitcoin prediction playing out but BTC is closing in on a major BUY ZONE.’

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This latest piece is the next installment of that ongoing narrative, as the market grapples with whether it is recovering or merely catching its breath.

$71,500 is where that determination becomes apparent.

What a fourth test typically signifies

Three unsuccessful attempts at the same level can indicate two distinct outcomes, and the distinction lies in how the price reacts on the subsequent approach.

Sometimes, repeated tests weaken resistance, sellers are absorbed, the barrier becomes less formidable with each attempt, and ultimately the price breaks through.

Conversely, repeated tests can create a trap, buyers grow impatient, leverage accumulates, stop-loss orders stack beneath, and a rejection can trigger a sharper downward movement.

This tension is palpable in the current chart appearance; the rally has been steady but lacks the explosive urgency typically seen when the market is fully confident.

This situation can change rapidly, which is why it is beneficial to discuss levels rather than predictions.

Here’s how I’m framing $71,500

I am considering $71,500 as a threshold where the market must demonstrate its strength.

A clear move above this level holds significance only if it can sustain itself. In Bitcoin, price wicks are common, failed breakouts are frequent, and the distinction between strength and mere noise hinges on whether the price can remain above a reclaimed level long enough for traders to cease viewing it as a short opportunity.

If Bitcoin surpasses $71,500 and establishes acceptance above it, the upside targets will shift to the next bands on my chart.

According to my chart, the subsequent zones above are approximately $73,700, then $77,000, and just below $79,000.

Bitcoin price action and channels over the last week

These levels are significant because they represent areas where the market has historically paused, reversed, or accelerated. They are the next points where profit-taking tends to concentrate and where leveraged traders often set their next triggers.

If Bitcoin fails at $71,500 once more, the sentiment shifts.

This indicates that the rebound from $60,000 has not yet restored the market structure, suggests that sellers are still defending the same ceiling, and increases the likelihood that the price will drift back into the mid-range areas where it has previously spent time during this recovery.

On my chart, the nearest support levels below are around $70,000 and $66,900, with deeper support memory located closer to the low $61,000s.

This is why $71,500 is crucial; it lies right at the boundary of the recovery channel, serving as the simplest means to differentiate between continuation and rejection without imposing a narrative onto the chart.

The human aspect traders overlook

Each time Bitcoin nears a level like $71,500, there is a multitude of individuals behind the price movements.

There is the retail trader who entered late in the cycle, observed the downturn, and promised themselves they would sell the next time they approached breakeven.

There is the long-term holder who has experienced this scenario before, who remains calm but still feels the tension in their stomach when the price revisits a level that has previously failed multiple times.

There is the new investor who only recently learned about “liquidity sweeps,” trying to determine if this bounce signifies a return to safety.

There is the desk trader who disregards narratives, focusing solely on where stop-loss orders are likely clustered and how much liquidity exists around a known level.

All these individuals behave differently, yet they all interact at the same price point.

This is why charts are effective; they serve as a record of human behavior.

And this is why I consistently refer back to these channel bands. They provide a way to anchor human emotions to repeatable areas of interest.

How this aligns with the broader cycle narrative

I do not perceive $71,500 as a permanent ceiling. Instead, I view it as the next checkpoint within a larger cycle that has already transitioned from the euphoric peak phase into the damage control phase.

This was the core of my argument in my bear market prediction, and it is why I felt confident assigning a controversial figure like $49,000 in my thesis.

The drop to $60,000 does not negate that overarching concept. It reinforces something more significant: the market is capable of rapid, violent repricings once again.

In January, I discussed the types of red flags that emerge when the system is under stress, from shifts in flows to the behavior of miners and market infrastructure.

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These issues do not resolve overnight.

However, what does occur is that markets breathe; they sell off, they rebound, they entice participants back in, and then they reveal whether the rebound possesses genuine strength.

This is the moment we are currently approaching.

The $71,500 zone is where the rebound will be publicly tested.

Levels to monitor, simplified version

If you seek the most straightforward way to follow this without getting lost in indicators, here is how I would simplify it.

• $71,500, the level the market consistently rejects; a reclaim that holds alters the sentiment.
• $73,700, the next resistance band above, the initial point where I expect sellers to challenge a breakout.
• $77,000 to $79,000, the upper bands, where a stronger continuation would likely encounter greater resistance.
• $70,000, the nearest support level below; if the market loses this after another rejection, it signals weakness.
• $66,900, the deeper mid-band, a level that often becomes significant when momentum wanes.
• Low $61,000s, the post-crash memory zone, where the market revealed its intentions during the capitulation phase.

This is the roadmap.

The remainder involves observing how Bitcoin behaves when it reaches the line and resisting the temptation to create certainty.

What I will observe when we reach that point

When the price hits $71,500 again, I will be monitoring three straightforward factors.

1. First, speed. Does Bitcoin move through swiftly, or does it stall and hesitate?
2. Second, follow-through. A breakout that cannot sustain itself often leads to sharper movements, as it creates trapped positions.
3. Third, reaction. The market indicates its sentiment about a level by how vigorously it defends or reclaims it.

If Bitcoin surpasses $71,500 and maintains that position, the narrative shifts toward recovery and continuation. If it faces rejection again, the narrative reverts to a market still grappling with damage.

In either case, this is more significant than a multitude of hot takes.

In a cycle like this, the most valuable asset you can possess is a plan, while the most costly is confidence without a guiding framework.

Final thought

Bitcoin does not announce its next moves. It provides hints, and those hints tend to cluster around the same zones repeatedly.

Currently, $71,500 stands out as the most evident clue on the board.

It has already been tested three times since the decline to $60,000. The price is approaching once more. Traders will regard it as a battleground. Long-term holders will view it as a gauge.

And the market will treat it for what it is: a level that determines whether this rebound evolves into something more substantial or if Bitcoin still has more winter to reveal.

Disclosure: This is market commentary, not financial advice. Risk management is more crucial than narratives.

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