Bitcoin may reach $90,000 again if this level ceases to function as a barrier for investors.

Bitcoin’s recent surge above $73,000 within the last day resembles a price movement that may quickly diminish, chaotic and reminiscent for those familiar with unsuccessful bear-market recoveries.

What distinguishes this instance is not the price itself, but the increasing alignment of indicators suggesting a potential shift away from extreme negative momentum.

For reference, Swissblock’s momentum framework indicated that Bitcoin is emerging from a significantly negative area that typically appears near critical transitions.

As stated by the firm:

“We’re exiting peak negative momentum, the kind of transition that often precedes a regime change. The key test now is simple: can momentum consolidate above +0.5 and hold. That +0.5 zone is the point of no return, where caution starts giving way to expansion.”

Bitcoin Price Momentum (Source: Swissblock)

This is due to the leading digital asset experiencing various market indicators, including ETF interest and metrics related to selling behavior, all improving concurrently.

However, none of these indicators alone signals the onset of a new bull market. Instead, they outline the preliminary conditions for a regime change if the positive trend continues.

This is why CryptoQuant maintains that Bitcoin conditions remain bearish despite the current upward movement. Its Bull Score Index remains notably low at 10 out of 100, indicating that the broader set of indicators associated with a bullish regime has not yet recovered.

Bitcoin Bullscore Index (Source: CryptoQuant)

The divergence is significant because markets often begin to shift before they appear robust. A regime change does not necessitate bullish conditions today; it requires the cessation of deterioration followed by sustained improvement.

Demand is improving, mainly because it stopped getting worse

The most evident “what changed” signal is not a surge of new buying. It is the reduction of spot-demand contraction, a transition from negative to less negative, which can be more impactful than it seems.

CryptoQuant’s estimate of Bitcoin “apparent demand” indicates that spot demand contraction improved from approximately -136,000 BTC at the beginning of 2026 to around -25,000 BTC more recently.

Bitcoin Apparent Demand (Source: CryptoQuant)

The timing coincides with Bitcoin establishing a support level since early February, a shift that appears less like a breakout and more like initial evidence that the market can absorb supply without continuing to decline.

The distinction is essential because while -25,000 BTC remains negative, BTC transitions often commence this way: demand weakens, volatility decreases, and price becomes more responsive to minor changes in flows.

This is the phase where rallies can start to resemble early accumulation rather than purely mechanical squeezes.

Another aspect of the demand landscape is the resurgence of a US-led bid.

CryptoQuant reports that the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium, a measure of US-based buying pressure, improved from deeply negative levels in early February to its highest point since October.

Notably, this has been fueled by spot Bitcoin ETFs, which experienced net inflows of approximately $917 million during the first week of this month.

This represents a significant contrast to their performance in the first two months of the year, where they recorded net outflows exceeding $1.8 billion.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Flows This Year (Source: SoSoValue)

In practical terms, this indicates that the marginal buyer is shifting back toward US spot demand as the market tests regime boundaries.

Selling pressure is easing, and price can move quickly when supply fades

Price does not always require a surge of new buyers to increase. It can rise when the market ceases to leak supply.

CryptoQuant data suggests that trader selling pressure has diminished after unrealized losses reached levels not seen since July 2022.

When a significant portion of traders are already at a loss, the motivation to sell at the margin often decreases. Capitulation can deplete near-term supply, requiring less incremental demand to elevate the price.

Simultaneously, long-term holders also seem to be reducing their selling activities.

CryptoQuant data indicates that long-term holder selling dropped to its lowest 30-day rate since June 2025, decreasing from around 904,000 BTC in late November to approximately 276,000 BTC more recently.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Spendings (Source: CryptoQuant)

This does not guarantee the onset of a new bull market. However, it does eliminate one of the most persistent bear-market accelerants: consistent distribution from holders who purchased at much lower prices and are willing to sell into strength.

This also clarifies why momentum models can shift rapidly once demand stabilizes, as supply pressure is no longer hindering every rally attempt.

Resistance levels double as the regime test

The immediate battleground is clear, and the levels are not arbitrary.

CryptoQuant identifies $79,000 as the first significant resistance, the lower boundary of traders’ on-chain realized price, a level that has historically served as a ceiling during bear phases.

Above that lies a larger obstacle around $90,000, near the traders’ on-chain realized price itself, which capped prices during a previous rally earlier in the year.

Bitcoin Traders Realized Price (Source: CryptoQuant)

These levels are significant because they approximate where the active cohort’s cost basis resides.

In bear markets, that cohort often sells rallies to break even, turning cost basis into resistance. In bull markets, once price reclaims those levels, behavior can shift, with former resistance becoming support.

That is why the move above $73,000 is not the endpoint. It is the approach to the threshold.

If Bitcoin surpasses $79,000 and maintains that level while demand continues to improve, it would bolster the argument that momentum is transitioning into an expansion regime.

If it fails to hold, and momentum cannot remain above Swissblock’s +0.5 threshold, the rally risks being dismissed as yet another relief bounce.

Three paths for the next 4 to 12 weeks

As Bitcoin attempts to move beyond negative momentum, the next phase is likely to be determined less by headlines and more by whether the market can sustain its improvements.

One possibility is a failed transition. Momentum fails to stay above Swissblock’s +0.5 threshold, spot demand remains negative, and ETF flows stagnate.

<pIn this scenario, BTC price likely rejects near $79,000 and retreats back into the recent support zone, a reset that would align with a bear-market structure.

A second possibility is a period of fluctuation and consolidation. Momentum hovers around the threshold, apparent demand improves gradually but does not turn positive, and flows remain mixed.

In this case, BTC price may range for weeks, establishing a base that makes a future breakout more plausible, even if it tests patience.

The third possibility is a genuine regime change. Momentum holds above +0.5 for several weeks, apparent demand turns positive, ETF inflows continue, and derivatives pricing becomes less defensive.

Price reclaims $79,000, challenges $90,000, and begins converting former resistance into support, a hallmark of a structural shift.

For the moment, the rally is best viewed as an effort to transition. Selling pressure is diminishing. Demand is stabilizing. Momentum is attempting to shift into a higher regime. The evidence is deceptively straightforward, not that Bitcoin can surge, but that it can sustain.

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