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Bitcoin (BTC) continues to be confined within the range of $105,000 to $125,000, but a breakout could lead prices towards $141,000, as noted in Glassnode’s report dated July 29 report.
The Short‑Term Holder (STH) cost basis, a crucial pivot point between bullish and bearish local trends, is positioned around $105,400. This metric is essential for determining BTC’s future movements.
The price has consistently encountered resistance near the STH +1 band at approximately $125,100, identified as a “heated” zone. A definitive close above this threshold would redirect attention to the STH +2 band close to $141,600, where selling pressure has historically increased.
Image: Glassnode
Withstanding the weekend stress test
The report also pointed out that the weekend stress test was successfully navigated. Network liquidity managed to absorb one of the largest distribution events of the cycle, as an early investor, through Galaxy Digital, transferred approximately $9.6 billion worth of Bitcoin across market and OTC platforms.
The spot price dipped to $115,000 before stabilizing around $118,000, demonstrating market depth even during low-volume weekend hours.
The report estimated that the Realized Cap, which represents dollar-denominated liquidity embedded within the chain, exceeds $1 trillion, a magnitude that helps clarify the rapid stabilization.
Additionally, flow metrics surged during the event. Net Realized Profit/Loss reached a record $3.7 billion, with realized profits outpacing losses by a factor of 571. Such levels are observed on only 1.5% of days.
Image: Glassnode
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The report warned that extreme profit-taking often precedes local exhaustion but does not always immediately indicate a peak, as previous highs have been followed by a delay.
Capital rotation
Holder rotation remains positively broad. Long‑Term Holder Net Realized P/L surged to an unprecedented $2.5 billion, marking the largest single sell-side print on record, as Long-Term Holders (LTH) sold into strength.
The LTH/STH supply ratio has decreased by 11% over the past 30 days, reflecting distribution patterns observed near each all-time high during this cycle.
Nonetheless, over 97% of the supply remains profitable, with aggregate unrealized profits reaching $1.4 trillion, and unrealized profit as a percentage of market cap has returned above levels indicative of a mix of euphoria, risk, and demand momentum.
LTHs continue to control 53% of network wealth, leaving additional supply that could be released at higher prices.
Cost‑basis distribution reveals a high‑volume node at $117k-$122k and a low‑volume “air‑gap” at $115k-$110k that the market may revisit during weakness.
Among STH sub-cohorts, the 24-hour to 3-month ribbon is positioned at $110k-$117k, reinforcing this area as initial support.
Until buyers convincingly surpass $125K, the $105k-$125k range remains intact.
The post Bitcoin could target $141k if it breaks out of the $105k-$125k box appeared first on CryptoSlate.
