Bitcoin maintains its position above $70,000 this weekend. Did I misjudge the $49,000 low prediction?

Bitcoin is maintaining its position this weekend. Following Friday’s mild CPI rally, the price continues to hover around the same resistance level of $70,300, with buy orders consistently appearing above $65,000.

This aspect is more significant than the pause.

Last Sunday, I identified $71,500 as the market’s critical threshold, the point that determines whether this rebound evolves into a recovery or diminishes into another decline. The reasoning remains unchanged, the level is consistent, and the market’s actions beneath it appear different this time.

Related Reading

Bitcoin must recover $71,500 soon or the drift back to $60,000 begins

BTC has already failed this crucial test three times, and the fourth attempt indicates either a significant breakout or a harsh rejection.

Feb 8, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Bitcoin has already experienced the tumultuous phase of this narrative. The drop towards $60,000 left a lasting impression. Since then, the price has gradually climbed back into the low $70,000s, and each upward movement has raised the same question: is this rally reconstructing its structure, or is it merely providing traders with a better opportunity to sell?

The soft CPI data provided Bitcoin with the necessary momentum to test resistance confidently. The price surged, the chart improved, and the market found itself in that familiar decision-making zone once more.

Now, on Saturday morning, liquidity is reduced, and the candles appear to be hesitating around $70,300. On paper, this is typically where weak bounces tend to unwind, particularly after a macro headline shift. In practice, Bitcoin continues to resist giving sellers an easy follow-through.

This resistance is the setup.

Related Reading

Bitcoin spikes 6% on softer US inflation but government data has holes that haven't been fixed

Bitcoin monitors a 3.52% 2-year yield as $307B in stablecoin cash awaits, with the next CPI date influencing risk.

Feb 13, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

A market inclined towards lower prices typically reveals this quickly over the weekend. It slips through support levels, hunts for stop losses, revisits the wick, and turns every bounce into an exit strategy. This weekend feels different; the pullbacks are consistently being absorbed, and the support around $65,000 remains intact even as the price struggles to breach the next resistance level.

This behavior aligns with a familiar phase in a weakened market, where the price ceases to fall rapidly, begins to move sideways, and compels both sides to remain patient.

It also reflects the human aspect of this cycle. Traders recall $60,000 as the panic point. Long-term holders remember the speed of the decline and the silence that ensued. Newer investors remember how swiftly confidence shifted to liquidation.

When the price remains above $65,000 following a CPI-driven surge, it provides the market with something it rarely receives after a shock: time.

The weekend floor is the real story, and $65,000 has turned into a barometer

Weekend price movements simplify markets to their fundamentals. The order book becomes less dense, the headlines slow down, and the only factor that matters is whether buyers actually appear when the chart appears heavy.

Currently, they are appearing.

Related Reading

Bitcoin ETF fatigue is real, ignoring noise, these are the 10 days that mattered in 2025

ETF scoreboard 2025: We condense a year of ETF noise into ten sessions when actual money moved.

Jan 1, 2026 · Andjela Radmilac

Bitcoin continues to push into the $70,000 range, repeatedly encountering $70,300, and gradually retreating. The crucial aspect lies beneath; each dip consistently finds support before it transforms into a decline. That support is clustering around $65,000, and it is beginning to feel like a level the market acknowledges.

This is significant because the last major reference point below it is the wick low near $60,000. That area carries emotional weight that can turn minor pullbacks into substantial reactions. When the price hovers in the high $60,000s and low $70,000s, the market starts to question whether another wick revisit is imminent.

Bitcoin price action refuses to retest $60,000

When the price holds through a weekend, the market begins to ponder a different question: whether the wick has already fulfilled its purpose.

A local bottom seldom arrives with a clear announcement. It typically manifests as a change in rhythm.

The rhythm shift appears as follows: sellers exert pressure, buyers absorb, and the price ceases to travel as far with each wave. The chart starts to establish a range instead of inciting fear. The market begins to trade time rather than distance.

This is why a pause at $70,300 can still be interpreted as bullish in context.

A pause becomes valuable when it is accompanied by resilience beneath. It transforms resistance into a pressure test. It also turns support into a dynamic level that everyone monitors in real time.

It is also important to consider how $71,500 fits into this.

Last week, Bitcoin repeatedly approached that level, and each attempt lost momentum. This week, the market is hesitating earlier, which often indicates that sellers are attempting to defend sooner, while buyers continue to step in. This dynamic can lead to a breakout later, but it may also result in further sideways frustration initially, especially when traders attempt to anticipate the move.

Related Reading

Bitcoin failing 7 times to break $71,500 is much more ominous than boring ‘sideways action’

The market recorded a lower high during its latest rally, suggesting that buyers are finally losing momentum.

Feb 10, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Sideways movement has a peculiar reputation in Bitcoin, as people often associate it with monotony. In reality, sideways action frequently signifies the most crucial negotiation in the entire movement. It is where leverage resets, where late sellers finally exit, where patient buyers accumulate, and where the market determines whether the next push has adequate support behind it.

If Bitcoin continues to hold $65,000 while persistently testing $70,300, the chart begins to resemble less of a failed bounce and more of a base forming beneath resistance. This base does not eliminate the broader cycle debate, but it does alter the short-term trajectory.

$71,500 remains the checkpoint, and $60,000 remains the scar tissue

The market still maintains a clear hierarchy of levels.

$71,500 continues to be the primary checkpoint, as it has already rejected price multiple times since the decline. It is the threshold where traders determine whether the recovery has genuine acceptance above it or whether the movement remains confined within the same range.

$70,300 is significant today because it is where the market is currently stalling. It is also sufficiently close to $71,500 to serve as a pretest, a point where sellers attempt to lean in early, and where buyers gain insight into how congested the ceiling is.

$65,000 is important because it is the level Bitcoin consistently defends during low weekend liquidity. It is the nearest support that prevents the chart from descending into the emotional weight of the wick.

Then $60,000 lies below everything as the scar tissue level. That wick low created a collective memory, and shared memories evoke reflexes. Traders tighten their stops, holders experience tension, and the market becomes more reactive as the price approaches that zone.

Bitcoin’s sideways movement alleviates the immediate pressure from that memory. It also provides the market with the opportunity to engage in healthier trading, moving sideways and rebuilding structure.

This is where the broader cycle narrative remains relevant, as a local base can form within a larger bearish framework. The market can establish a range, squeeze shorts, reclaim a level, and still encounter deeper stress later in the year when liquidity shifts, risk appetite diminishes, or macro conditions tighten again.

My $49,000 bear target still exists within that larger context. It remains a plausible endpoint later this year if the cycle continues to unwind and if risk dissipates from the system once more. That target pertains to the macro trajectory, the type of movement that accompanies the return of fear, the expansion of volatility, and signs of market stress.

Related Reading

Akiba's medium term $49k Bitcoin bear thesis – why this winter will be the shortest yet

Shorter bears, sharper floors: why $49k could print early, and what would flip the tape.

Nov 24, 2025 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

The current price dynamics belong to a more immediate chapter. This chapter reflects resilience, a rally initiated by soft CPI data, a pause beneath resistance, and a consistent defense of $65,000 even when the weekend offers sellers an opportunity to exert pressure.

Both chapters can coexist simultaneously.

This is why this moment is significant. It provides the market with a chance to demonstrate whether the bounce has a solid foundation, and it offers traders a framework that does not depend on forecasts.

If Bitcoin reclaims $71,500 and maintains its position above it, the subsequent resistance levels on my chart will come back into focus, around $73,700, then $77,000, and just below $79,000. These levels are important because they are where the market has previously paused, reversed, or accelerated, and they are where profit-taking and leverage triggers tend to cluster.

If Bitcoin continues to stall below $70,300 and retreats into the mid-range, the support levels below remain pertinent, particularly $66,900 and $65,000. A strong defense of those levels sustains the sideways thesis, while a clean break beneath them shifts attention back toward the $60,000 memory zone.

Levels to watch, and what “bullish” looks like from here

This setup is more straightforward than it appears.

A bullish interpretation in the near term resembles ongoing range building, the price holding above key levels, and repeated pressure on $70,300 that ultimately leads to another attempt at $71,500. It manifests as dips that are quickly bought, and it appears as sellers struggling to push the market into a deeper decline.

It also embodies patience.

A range can persist longer than anticipated, especially following a volatile move. It can disrupt both long and short positions, and it can frustrate anyone seeking a clear narrative. That frustration often becomes fuel later, as it shakes out leverage and rebuilds a healthier base.

Here is the clear roadmap for the upcoming week.

• $71,500, the major reclaim line, acceptance above it alters the tone and opens the higher ranges.
• $70,300, today’s stall point, a sustained push above it raises the likelihood of a fresh $71,500 test.
• $70,000, the psychological pivot, a level that frequently determines whether dips remain controlled.
• $66,900, the mid-band support, where momentum often resets and where weak movements typically fade.
• $65,000, the weekend barometer, a level that maintains the local bottom thesis while it holds.
• ~$60,000, the wick low memory zone, a revisit would likely reintroduce speed and emotion into the chart.
• $49,000, the larger cycle bear target, a potential destination later in the year if macro stress returns and risk unwinds further.

What I’m monitoring when the market moves is also straightforward.

Speed, does Bitcoin slice through resistance or grind into it. Follow-through, does the price hold above reclaimed levels long enough for acceptance to develop. Reaction, does the market defend support vigorously, or does it relinquish it gradually.

Saturday’s data point thus far is clear. Bitcoin is stalling around $70,300, and it is maintaining its position above local lows despite thin liquidity. That combination leans bullish for a local bottom and a sideways phase, as it suggests demand is active beneath, and sellers are encountering absorption.

The broader cycle still has the potential for another challenging chapter later this year. The near-term chart is signaling a quieter message, showcasing resilience following a shock.

Disclosure, this is market commentary; financial decisions require personal responsibility and appropriate professional guidance.

The post Bitcoin refuses to lose $70,000 this weekend. Was my $49k bottom call wrong? appeared first on CryptoSlate.