Bitcoin is exhibiting a subtle lag pattern compared to gold, positioning a $130k target within reach.

This week, gold and silver reached new all-time peaks, establishing a financial void that may lead to a possible Bitcoin catch-up rally.

As per Gold Price data, gold surpassed $4,600, with market analysts forecasting a rise above $5,000. Concurrently, silver has exceeded $90, and its market capitalization has crossed the $5 trillion threshold for the first time.

Market experts observed that the price fluctuations of these precious metals indicate a dominance of “hard assets,” as investors move away from sovereign debt concerns amid escalating global macroeconomic uncertainty.

In light of this, Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” has also made a robust start, exceeding $95,000 for the first time this year within the last 24 hours.

Nonetheless, its performance has been less pronounced compared to that of the precious metals.

For some analysts, this delay is not a cautionary sign but rather a typical market rotation. They believe Bitcoin generally trails hard-asset momentum, and a combination of timing indicators and institutional investments could propel it toward six-figure valuations.

Bitcoin trails gold

The key technical rationale for an impending Bitcoin rally is based on statistical data indicating that gold prices often serve as a precursor for movements in the crypto market.

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André Dragosch, the head of research at Bitwise Europe, pointed out a specific correlation indicating that the ongoing metals rally effectively foreshadows a subsequent movement in digital assets.

His argument revolves around the concept of “Gold to Bitcoin Rotation,” a scenario he asserts is firmly in play amid the current market conditions.

Dragosch, employing Granger causality tests, highlighted that gold typically leads Bitcoin by about four to seven months.

Chart Showing Lag Between Bitcoin and Gold (Source: Bitwise)

This lag suggests that the institutional capital that pours into gold as a safe haven eventually shifts into Bitcoin as risk appetites evolve within the hard-asset landscape.

Additional insights from Bitcoin analyst Sminston With bolster his perspective.

With notes that historical data illustrates a recurring trend where gold bull runs precede Bitcoin surges.

Chart Showing Correlation Between Bitcoin and Gold Price Rally

He emphasized that the current technical setup indicates gold is entering a vertical price discovery phase, while Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a corresponding transition.

This divergence supports Dragosch’s rotation theory and implies that the explosive movement in gold is currently “loading” the spring for the cryptocurrency market.

If the trend of reducing lag times continues, the opportunity for Bitcoin to bridge the valuation gap is likely shorter than in previous cycles, confirming the urgency reflected in recent institutional flows.

ETF implications

Beyond statistical associations, the foundational landscape for Bitcoin reinforces the argument for an impending breakout.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, contests the widespread notion that the 2025 gold surge was an abrupt response to immediate demand. Instead, he posits that price discovery was a result of supply depletion that unfolded over several years.

He claims that the trigger for the contemporary gold rally began in 2022 when central banks’ gold purchases surged from about 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes annually following the US seizure of Russian Treasury assets.

Chart Showing Central Banks’ Gold Purchases

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He pointed out that these acquisitions fundamentally altered the supply-demand dynamics, yet the price did not immediately reflect this change. During that time, gold prices only increased by 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023, and 27% in 2024.

However, it was not until 2025 that gold prices skyrocketed, climbing 65%. Hougan explains that the initial substantial demand from central banks was met by existing holders who were willing to sell their gold. Hence, gold’s price only surged after those sellers ultimately “ran out of stock.”

Hougan applies this same framework to the current Bitcoin market condition. Since the launch of US spot ETFs in January 2024, they have consistently acquired more than 100% of the new Bitcoin supply generated by the network.

However, the leading cryptocurrency’s price has not yet escalated dramatically, as current holders have been inclined to sell into the ETF’s aggressive accumulation. Indeed, CryptoSlate previously reported that long-term Bitcoin holders have been among the heaviest sellers of the asset over the past year.

In light of this, Hougan asserts that Bitcoin’s price will rise once the supply of willing sellers is eventually exhausted, just as it did in the gold market.

When that exhaustion point is reached, the disparity between supply and demand will likely compel a parabolic repricing akin to gold’s performance in 2025.

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Macro influences and the Fed crisis

Meanwhile, the driving force behind the rise in gold and silver offers further validation that Bitcoin will likely follow suit. The metals market has been responding to a significant challenge to confidence in the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

Reports of criminal investigations into the leadership of the Federal Reserve have shaken trust in the dollar’s stability and the neutrality of monetary policy. This uncertainty has propelled global capital into assets that are shielded from political interference.

Gold acts as the primary safe haven during such crises, responding immediately to developments. Bitcoin, frequently viewed as a “risk-on” safe haven, usually reacts with a delay as investors first secure their defensive positions in bullion before allocating funds to digital stores of value.

Thus, that “trust premium” currently elevating gold to $4,600 is the same fundamental factor that supports the investment rationale for Bitcoin.

As the initial shock from the Fed news is absorbed, the market is anticipated to seek out assets with comparable scarcity and independence, yet with greater upside potential. Bitcoin perfectly fits this profile, serving as a convex hedge against the elevated sovereign risks currently unsettling traditional markets.

Bitcoin price forecast

Looking ahead, Bitcoin investors have pinpointed specific price levels that could trigger the catch-up trade.

In the options market, positioning has been evolving, but it still indicates a market focused on upside breakpoints.

Data from Deribit reveals that BTC traders have built bullish exposure through call options with imminent expirations, including Jan. 30 $98,000 calls, and February $100,000 calls.

This week, some of that short-term optimism was taken off the table. Nevertheless, some older January $100,000 calls were rolled forward into March $125,000 calls, indicating that some traders are maintaining an upside outlook but are allowing for more time and aiming higher.

These positions could create what traders refer to as a “gamma magnet.” As the spot price of Bitcoin nears this level, market makers who sold options are compelled to purchase the underlying asset to hedge their exposure.

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This buying enthusiasm can produce a feedback loop that rapidly elevates prices, sometimes overshooting fundamental targets.

If the correlation with gold persists and the four-to-seven-month lag resolves as Dragosch suggests, analysts predict Bitcoin is poised for a move into the $120,000 to $130,000 range in the near future.

This would represent a percentage increase akin to the recent movements in silver, which often outperforms gold during the later phases of a hard-asset bull market.

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