Bitcoin investors target $61,000 as oil prices exceed $115 and disappointing employment figures unsettle markets.

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 over the weekend following a disappointing US jobs report, while a further increase in oil prices reignited stagflation worries, leading investors to exit risk assets.

The leading cryptocurrency dropped to as low as $65,660, based on data from CryptoSlate, just days after hitting a monthly peak close to $74,000.

This decline pushed Bitcoin back beneath a key price point for spot traders and derivatives markets, highlighting how swiftly macroeconomic shocks can impact crypto when liquidity conditions become constrained.

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Macro shock impacts crypto

The February employment report provided BTC traders with an initial shock.

Data from the US Bureau of Labor indicated that nonfarm payrolls decreased by 92,000 in February 2026, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% from the previous month, and wages were up 3.8% compared to a year prior.

US Job Market Losses (Source: Heather Long/X)

This combination suggested a more challenging environment for markets, with indications of slower growth emerging without a clear resolution in wage pressures.

Consequently, the market’s response followed a familiar trend where rates shifted, equity futures weakened, and crypto mirrored these movements.

Essentially, traders did not interpret the labor report as a straightforward indication that the Federal Reserve might quickly lower rates.

Instead, the data heightened concerns that inflation could remain persistent even as growth decelerated, a scenario that typically unsettles cross-asset markets.

This presents a challenging situation for Bitcoin in the short term. When macroeconomic data compels investors to reassess growth, inflation, and policy simultaneously, the instinct is often to reduce exposure to liquid assets.

Bitcoin continues to be one of the most liquid risk trades in global markets, and this characteristic can be disadvantageous during stressful periods.

In derivatives-heavy platforms, a decline can rapidly escalate if falling prices trigger forced liquidations and lead to increased selling.

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Oil exacerbates the policy dilemma

In the meantime, rising oil prices provided investors with another reason to adopt a defensive stance.

Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, informed CryptoSlate that oil prices exceeding $110 a barrel should be considered in the discussion, given that they have doubled in three months due to escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Data from CryptoQuant links the surge in oil prices to increasing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage that accounts for approximately 20% of global daily oil exports and nearly 35% of oil transported by sea.

Bitcoin vs Oil Prices (Source: CryptoQuant)

Oil has risen over 60% since the start of the year, a spike that could heighten inflation concerns and tighten financial conditions.

Crypto trading firm QCP also characterized the oil price increase as part of a broader decline in market sentiment.

It noted that tensions in Iran did not de-escalate over the weekend, pushing oil prices above $115 amid fears of prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, regional instability, and a conflict that could extend longer than markets anticipated.

QCP observed that global equity markets adopted a defensive posture and mentioned that US Treasuries and gold also faced pressure as crude oil heightened inflation fears and increased yields, making the US dollar the favored defensive asset.

For Bitcoin, the oil shock is significant because it directly influences the rates discussion. Rising crude prices can amplify inflation pressures even as the labor market weakens.

This combination complicates the Fed’s outlook and diminishes confidence in immediate rate relief.

In the crypto space, where sentiment can shift rapidly, such uncertainty is often sufficient to overshadow longer-term narratives regarding scarcity or adoption.

ETF flows and miner selling influence the trade

The drop below $70,000 is also important as Bitcoin’s market structure has evolved over the past year.

The introduction of spot ETFs broadened access to the asset, but it also made daily price movements more responsive to institutional flows.

During periods of strong demand, this structure can facilitate consistent spot buying. In times of uncertainty, it can exacerbate weakness if allocators withdraw or adopt a tactical approach.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded two consecutive weeks of inflows for the first time since October 2025, following back-to-back inflows of $787 million for the week ending February 27 and a net inflow of $568 million for the broader period from March 2 to March 6.

This positive trend represented a notable turnaround for the investment vehicles, which had recently faced five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling over $3 billion.

US Bitcoin ETFs Weekly Flow Since October 2025 Till Date (Source: SoSoValue)

However, the recent inflows indicated that the institutional demand had become less one-sided just as price movements became fragile again.

Simultaneously, this shift coincided with new evidence that miners continue to contribute to supply.

Misir highlighted that publicly traded miners have sold over 15,000 BTC since October.

He noted that Cango sold 4,451 BTC in February, Bitdeer liquidated its entire BTC treasury, and Core Scientific plans to sell approximately 2,500 BTC in the first quarter as some miners redirect capital towards AI infrastructure and data center expansion.

These sales do not solely dictate price, but they are significant when overall liquidity is already constrained.

Notably, CryptoQuant’s data indicates that the market is experiencing thin liquidity and signs of strain in stablecoin flows.

The firm observed that stablecoin netflows to exchanges have remained negative since the start of the year.

Binance reported a monthly netflow of around -$2 billion, followed by Bitfinex at approximately -$336 million, although both figures had improved from -$6.7 billion and -$443 million on February 15.

Stablecoins Exchange Netflow (Source: CryptoQuant)

QCP noted that Bitcoin has displayed unusual resilience in this environment, a trend the crypto market has not observed in some time, even with the VIX above 29. The firm also pointed out that options positioning appeared less frantic than during the initial shock.

It mentioned that short-dated downside protection was concentrated between $61,000 and $64,000, while a trade involving 500 BTC of the 24APR26 72k straddle indicated expectations for ongoing volatility.

QCP added that March’s highest open interest was at the $75,000 and $125,000 call strikes.

What should Bitcoin traders monitor next?

The labor data were not without caveats. The most significant payroll declines were concentrated in a few sectors, including health care, where the report indicated strike activity, along with information and the federal government.

This raised the possibility that part of the weakness was due to temporary distortions rather than a widespread collapse in hiring.

Nevertheless, investors are unlikely to await perfect clarity. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal, stated that the US economy has been shedding jobs since April 2025.

She noted that total job gains from May 2025 to February 2026 are now -19,000, and that companies are refraining from hiring amid challenges and uncertainty, with even health care beginning to slow.

For Bitcoin, the next phase now hinges on whether the labor shock is temporary or signals the onset of a broader slowdown.

Much of this discussion will revolve around the upcoming inflation report and the Fed’s response. The US CPI for February 2026, scheduled for release on March 11, will be crucial in determining whether inflation is declining rapidly enough to counterbalance labor-market weakness.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 17-18 will then influence how investors interpret the jobs report, either as mere noise or as the beginning of a more significant deterioration.

Following that, the next jobs report on April 3 will serve as a confirmation test.

For now, the takeaway from this weekend’s sell-off is clear. Bitcoin’s decline below $70,000 reflects broader macroeconomic forces: slowing growth, ongoing wage pressures, rising oil prices, and a market that continues to view Bitcoin as one of the first liquid assets to sell when uncertainty escalates.

The post Bitcoin traders focus on $61k as oil surges past $115 and weak jobs data rattle markets appeared first on CryptoSlate.