Bitcoin indicates a return to upward momentum in late September according to holding trends.

Bitcoin (BTC) holding trends indicate a possible revival of the upward trajectory beginning in late September 2025, as long-term accumulation insights highlight changing market dynamics influenced by institutional engagement and policy developments.

CryptoQuant Korean Community Manager Crypto Dan’s evaluation shows that the current cycle is distinct from earlier bull markets due to prolonged timeframes and diminishing momentum slopes.

The proportion of Bitcoin retained for more than one year, based on realized market capitalization, illustrates the unique features of the current cycle in contrast to prior periods.

In contrast to earlier cycles, where abrupt increases resulted in swift peaks, institutional adoption via spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and purchases by nation-states has prolonged the bull market‘s lifespan while gradually flattening the slope of the uptrend.

Market momentum experiences intermittent pauses when capital reallocates toward altcoins, a trend that has occurred multiple times throughout the current cycle. This is different from 2023-2024, when Bitcoin was the focal point of market interest before capital began shifting to alternative cryptocurrencies.

Favorable backdrop

Crypto Dan pointed out that expectations for a rate cut in September align with Bitcoin’s seasonal trends and technical indicators.

Polymarket traders currently assign an 81% probability to a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, which could serve as a catalyst for the appreciation of risk assets.

The analysis also predicts additional momentum from the anticipated approvals of altcoin ETFs in October.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart mentioned in April that most crypto ETF applications have final deadlines in October, making it a likely month for the approval of spot altcoin products.

This timeline establishes a favorable policy environment for crypto markets as they transition into the fall season.

Coupled with seasonal trends that demonstrate Bitcoin’s strength during autumn months, the alignment of accommodating monetary policy and regulatory clarity positions the market for renewed upward momentum following the current consolidation phase.

Extended cycle characteristics

Institutional adoption has fundamentally transformed Bitcoin’s cycle dynamics compared to the retail-driven phases that came before.

The introduction of spot ETFs and corporate treasury adoption has generated more stable demand flows while prolonging the cycle’s duration. The analysis indicates that these structural changes support sustained bull market conditions despite intermittent consolidation phases.

Considering the favorable policy backdrop and the development of institutional infrastructure, any further corrections during the transition period could offer appealing opportunities for accumulation.

The combination of rate cuts, ETF approvals, and seasonal influences bolsters a positive market outlook for fall and winter 2025.

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