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Bitcoin has traditionally outperformed silver, but a significant shift since 2021 has altered the landscape for investors.
Silver has surpassed Bitcoin in performance from early 2021 to “today.”
Although Bitcoin continues to dominate the entirety of the 2018-to-present timeframe, the disparity can be attributed to market conditions, timing, and the type of challenges one can endure.
Each cycle features its defining trade, and in 2021, it seemed evident.
Bitcoin had the narrative, the momentum, the cultural influence, and the potential for gains that rendered everything else sluggish by comparison. Many individuals acquired it as much as a statement as an investment, and for a time, it appeared to be the safest bet in the market.
Then, something less conspicuous occurred.
If you purchased silver at the beginning of 2021 and retained it until the most recent weekly data point in this dataset, you outperformed the Bitcoin investor.
Not just marginally, but significantly.
According to our data, silver yielded approximately 322% compared to Bitcoin’s 130% over the same period, amounting to around 193 percentage points of additional performance, and around 84% more total wealth on an equivalent initial dollar.
So, what led the “grandpa metal” to outshine the internet’s most resilient asset, and why does Bitcoin still prevail when viewed from a broader perspective?
The brief answer is timing; the more detailed explanation is that the landscape shifted beneath the trade.
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The data and what “since 2018” and “since 2021” signify here
This evaluation employs weekly data for Bitcoin, crude oil, gold, silver, S&P 500 futures, and the U.S. Dollar Index, spanning from May 28, 2018 to January 26, 2026.
“Since 2021” starts on January 4, 2021, the first weekly datapoint following January 1.
Returns are calculated as straightforward start-to-end percentage changes, utilizing the first and last available values for each timeframe.
Returns since 2018, Bitcoin remains the leader
<pWhen considering the complete period, it appears familiar once more. Bitcoin is the standout performer, by a considerable margin, and nothing else comes close.
| Asset | Total return |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | +1,036.5% |
| Silver | +554.9% |
| Gold | +292.8% |
| S&P 500 futures (ES1!) | +156.2% |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | +2.3% |
| Oil (OILUSD) | -6.8% |
This table explains why Bitcoin became the default benchmark for discussions about “best asset of the decade.” Even after numerous harsh downturns, the compounding still prevails in the long term.
It also highlights an aspect often overlooked when focusing solely on Bitcoin: silver was not inactive throughout the 2018s.
It increased more than fivefold, and it achieved this while behaving like a metal, resulting in the full emotional spectrum: long, tedious periods, sudden dramatic surges, and numerous opportunities to be shaken out.
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Returns since January 2021, silver and gold lead the way
Now, let’s narrow our focus to the post-2020 landscape, characterized by inflation headlines, interest rate shocks, and the gradual acknowledgment that liquidity would not remain free indefinitely.
| Asset | Total return |
|---|---|
| Silver | +322.3% |
| Gold | +174.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | +129.5% |
| S&P 500 futures (ES1!) | +83.5% |
| Oil (OILUSD) | +17.2% |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | +6.9% |
This represents the split-screen moment.
Bitcoin triumphs in the 2018-to-present narrative due to its dominance in the early part of the decade, when the world was saturated with liquidity and a strong appetite for risk, and when crypto’s adoption curve was steepest.
Silver and gold excel in the 2021-to-present narrative because the market began to pay more attention to the value of money and the reliability of the system, rather than merely growth and duration. Gold also benefitted from consistent support from official sector purchases, with central bank themes remaining relevant even as headlines shifted.
Silver had its own unique set of influences; it acts like money during times of high anxiety and functions as an industrial input when the world is developing. Industrial demand related to solar, electrification, and data infrastructure has formed part of the contemporary silver narrative, which is significant because silver’s market is smaller and more easily influenced.
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The “but” part, silver surpassing Bitcoin is not as straightforward as it seems
Silver’s outperformance since early 2021 appears straightforward in a table, but experiencing it is rarely so simple.
- Silver’s volatility is a characteristic, not a flaw. It is a tighter market than gold, capable of rapid movements in either direction, and it has a knack for penalizing anyone who believes they can hold it like an index fund.
- The entry point is more significant than many acknowledge. A buyer in January 2021 entered a timeframe where silver had room to grow, while Bitcoin had already experienced a remarkable 2020. Altering the start date by a few months changes the narrative, applicable to both assets.
- Bitcoin still fulfilled its role. A total return of 130% during a period that included a complete interest rate hike cycle is not a failure; it demonstrates that Bitcoin’s long-term appeal persisted in a challenging macro environment. The crucial point is that the macro environment altered the rankings.
- “Best return” does not equate to “best hold.” The S&P 500 futures series, an equity proxy tied to the E-mini S&P 500, provided a much smoother experience for most investors compared to either metal or Bitcoin, even while it underperformed them during this period.
Even the dollar, tracked here as DXY, operates differently. It can dominate for periods, but it rarely compounds the way a true risk asset does, and it often reflects global stress more than it offers long-term returns.
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What this indicates about the last eight years, and what it suggests for the future
There exists a human inclination in markets to select a single winner and cling to it as part of one’s identity.
Bitcoin supporters do it, gold advocates do it, equity enthusiasts do it, and it works until the regime shifts and the portfolio ceases to align with reality.
The 2018-to-present table rewards the asset that traversed the steepest adoption curve and captured the decade’s “digital scarcity” trend.
The 2021-to-present table rewards the assets that benefitted from inflation concerns, central bank actions, and the recognition that supply chains and industrial inputs are strategic again.
Neither table tells the complete story; they are two snapshots from the same film.
If you seek a single takeaway, it is this: the question is not which asset is “the best,” but rather which environment you find yourself in, and whether you can retain the asset you purchased when it ceases to be enjoyable.
The post Bitcoin historically crushed silver but a huge flip since 2021 has changed everything for investors appeared first on CryptoSlate.
