Bitcoin has reached a key price level, but this order book indicator indicates that a rise to $100k could be problematic.

Bitcoin (BTC) nearly reached $98,000 overnight before stabilizing around $96,000, reflecting an increase of approximately 5.5% over the latest sessions. This surge has revived a common question: is this a precursor to a sustained rise above $100,000, or merely a fragile advance propped up by thin order books and market positioning tactics?

#1 Bitcoin BTC $95,431.67 -1.2% Market Cap $1.91T 24h Volume $46.76B All-Time High $126,173.18 Sectors Coin Layer 1 PoW

Glassnode’s recent analysis presents a complex scenario, indicating that mechanical positioning fueled the latest move while overall structural demand remains inconsistent and liquidity continues to be constrained.

Supply aligns with demand at a pivotal point

The current pricing is situated within a dense range of supply from long-term holders amassed between April and July 2025, spanning approximately $93,000 to $110,000.

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Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap illustrates this overhead supply zone, where rebounds since November have consistently faltered. Each attempt has faced renewed selling pressure, preventing the price from achieving sustained structural recovery.

This area has repeatedly functioned as a transitional barrier, distinguishing corrective phases from robust bull markets.

The cost basis for short-term holders currently stands at $98,300, reflecting the average entry price of recent purchasers. Glassnode highlights that reclaiming and maintaining a position above this threshold has historically indicated the shift from corrective phases to more sustainable upward trends.

Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis resides at $98,300, with the price currently trading below this vital threshold that has historically indicated trend transitions.

The ability of the price to consolidate above $98,300 is essential to restore confidence and establish the groundwork for enduring momentum.

Long-term holder behavior offers insight into the volume of overhead supply the market needs to absorb. While long-term holders are net sellers, the distribution rate has significantly slowed compared to the aggressive selling observed in the latter half of 2025.

Glassnode indicates that long-term holders are currently realizing approximately 12,800 BTC weekly in net profits, down from cycle peaks exceeding 100,000 BTC per week.

This moderation suggests that profit-taking is still occurring but is considerably less aggressive than during previous distribution phases.

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Institutional flows stabilize, spot markets improve

Institutional balance-sheet flows have undergone a complete reset.

Following extended outflows from spot ETFs, corporations, and sovereign entities, net flows have stabilized. Spot ETFs have reverted to positive figures, re-establishing themselves as the main marginal buyers.

Bitcoin ETFs report $1.5 billion in net inflows for January, with nearly $1.6 billion of inflows recorded between Jan. 13 and 14, according to data from Farside Investors.

Spot market behavior has shifted positively. Cumulative volume delta metrics for Binance and aggregate exchanges have returned to a buy-dominant trend, indicating a move away from relentless sell-side pressure.

Coinbase, which has been the most reliable source of selling during the consolidation phase, has significantly reduced its distribution.

Spot market cumulative volume delta turned positive across Binance and aggregate exchanges in early 2026, while Coinbase selling pressure eased significantly.

While spot participation has yet to demonstrate the persistent, aggressive accumulation typically observed during comprehensive trend expansion phases, the return to a net-buying stance signifies a constructive structural shift.

Mechanical moves on thin volume

Short liquidations mechanically reinforced the advance into the $96,000 range, but this occurred on relatively thin derivatives volume.

Glassnode notes that futures turnover has remained well below the heightened activity experienced throughout much of 2025.

The breakout transpired in a relatively low liquidity environment where modest positioning changes elicited disproportionately large price reactions. Essentially, it did not require substantial new capital to force shorts from the market and drive the price through resistance.

This situation is directly linked to the liquidity challenges visible in order books. Aggregated 2% market depth has decreased by approximately 30% from the highs of 2025, according to data provider Kaiko.

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On Binance specifically, 1% depth surpassed $600 million at the peak in October 2025 but dropped below $400 million by Dec. 20. Thinner order books amplify price fluctuations, making the market more sensitive to significant flows and strategic positioning.

Blockchain data provides additional context to this narrative.

On Dec. 31, market maker Wintermute net-deposited 1,213 BTC to Binance, with transfers concentrated during periods of low activity.

Large exchange deposits during slow hours heighten the risk of outsized price movements, especially when order books lack depth.

However, the framing of manipulation has its limits. A widely circulated claim on Dec. 30 alleged “multi-billion dollar manipulation,” but the on-chain transfers referenced amounted to less than $30 million.

A better explanation for sharp intraday fluctuations is the structural fragility combined with stop-hunting rather than demonstrable coordinated schemes.

$100,000 as a mechanical attractor

The $100,000 mark represents a convergence point where cost basis, options exposure, and dealer hedging converge. Coin Metrics notes that call open interest is concentrated around $100,000 strike prices for late-January expiries.

Deribit options open interest shows the largest concentration of call contracts clustered at the $100,000 strike for January 30, 2026 expiration.

Glassnode indicates that dealers are short gamma between roughly $95,000 and $104,000, which can bolster upward movements as dealers hedge by purchasing spot or futures when prices increase.

In a short gamma scenario, hedging flows no longer absorb price movements; instead, they amplify them.

This structure results in a fragile stability. Volatility can remain low while prices are contained, but once momentum gains, movements are more likely to accelerate rather than diminish.

With spot trading fluctuating around the $95,000 to $96,000 range, the price has entered a short gamma zone where sustained activity supported by volume is likely to trigger directional hedging flows.

Options behavior around the $100,000 strike indicates conditional upside expectations. For short to mid-term maturities up to about three months, the call premium purchased has considerably outstripped the call premium sold, suggesting active demand for near-dated upside exposure.

In contrast, longer-dated maturities exhibit the opposite trend, as higher call premiums further out the curve were utilized as opportunities to offload upside.

This divergence suggests the market is positioning for a potential retest of the $100,000 zone while simultaneously expressing caution about sustained acceptance above that level in the longer term.

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Volatility deferred, not resolved

Implied volatility remains low across the curve, with Deribit’s DVOL reading around the 40s.
However, this figure conceals underlying fragility. Skew continues to price downside risk, with the 25-delta skew remaining biased toward puts, particularly at mid and longer maturities.

This shows a market that is comfortable with exposure but reluctant to do so without insurance.

The coexistence of low volatility and negative skew underscores a significant tension. Participants are not positioning for immediate downside but continue to pay for asymmetric protection.

Volatility gradually increases with maturity, suggesting that uncertainty is attributed to time rather than a specific near-term catalyst, consistent with a market that anticipates short-term stability while remaining exposed to latent risks.

The $100,000 test

If Bitcoin is indeed preparing for a sustained advance beyond $100,000, two conditions must align.
First, the price must reclaim and maintain a position above the $98,300 short-term holder cost basis, putting recent buyers back in profit and diminishing the urge to sell into rallies.

Second, liquidity and flows need to improve concurrently. Positive ETF inflows provide one indication, but depth stabilization is more critical. If the sub-$400 million Binance 1% depth scenario continues, the market will remain susceptible to whipsaws.

Profit-taking has eased, distribution from long-term holders has moderated, and classic late-cycle euphoria indicators aren’t flashing alarm signals. Yet, liquidity fragility introduces unpredictability.

Order books are noticeably thinner than at the highs in October, and substantial flows during low-activity periods can result in outsized price movements.

The $100,000 level is significant because it represents where multiple structural forces converge, such as cost basis, options exposure, and dealer hedging, making it a natural attractor if conditions stabilize.

Whether Bitcoin can reclaim $100,000 and sustain it depends less on narrative and more on the market’s ability to rebuild depth while maintaining positive flows. The indicators are favorable, distribution pressure has lessened, and institutional demand is stabilizing.

However, the mechanics remain fragile, and the recent movement occurred on thin volume with mechanical support from short covering.

This is the current state of affairs, where modest capital can generate significant fluctuations, but sustainability necessitates deeper accumulation to follow.

The post Bitcoin just touched a critical price point but this order book signal suggests the move to $100k might backfire appeared first on CryptoSlate.