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Bitcoin faces a 72-hour risk period as a significant Supreme Court case and the Federal Reserve’s decision could undermine the dollar.
Bitcoin has entered a 24–72 hour period during which communications from the Federal Reserve, dollar valuation, and a significant Supreme Court case related to Fed independence may influence the short-term framework that traders apply to the asset.
Fed decision and short-term market framework
As of the morning of Jan. 28, the markets are anticipating the Fed’s initial policy decision of 2026: the meeting scheduled for Jan. 27–28 will conclude later today, with the policy announcement expected at 2:00 p.m. EST and the chair’s press briefing at 2:30 p.m. EST, according to the Federal Reserve’s January 2026 schedule.
The Board also issued a prior notice for a closed meeting set for Jan. 27 at 10:00 a.m., with an agenda item labeled “Discussion of Monetary Policy Issues.”
The timing emphasizes the importance of communication regarding the rate path before the announcement, as highlighted in the Fed Board’s closed-meeting notice.
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In parallel with the Fed window, the Supreme Court heard arguments on Jan. 21 in Trump v. Cook (25A312), a case that the Associated Press described as a test of Fed independence, with a ruling anticipated by early summer.
The case is tracked in the Supreme Court docket, with related proceedings accessible via the court’s oral-argument audio page.
Cornell’s Legal Information Institute summarized the dispute as addressing whether removal met procedural requirements and whether it was for adequate cause, a framing that markets have considered pertinent to the central bank’s insulation from political influence.
The overview is detailed in Cornell LII’s case page for 25A312.
Dollar, yields, and the hedge narrative
The currency backdrop has already shifted. The U.S. dollar index dropped to 95.86, marking a four-year low.
The Wall Street Journal attributed the decline to a lack of confidence and uncertainty in policy, encompassing concerns regarding central bank independence, in its report on the dollar’s continued slide.
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In terms of rates, the most notable indicator for Bitcoin in the upcoming sessions lies in the distinction between real yields and inflation compensation.
This separation can determine whether the market perceives Bitcoin as a rate-sensitive risk or as a hedge linked to policy credibility.
FRED’s 10-year real yield series recorded a monthly reading of 1.90% in December 2025.
This figure, noted in FRED series FII10, serves as a reference point that traders frequently use to gauge whether real rates are stringent enough to restrict long-duration exposures.
FRED’s 10-year breakeven inflation rate hovered around 2.31%–2.34% in late January 2026, including 2.33 on Jan. 20 and 2.34 on Jan. 21.
The daily table is accessible via FRED’s T10YIE data, offering a timely check on whether any nominal yield movement stems from real yields or inflation expectations.
Gold has also been part of the same narrative as the dollar. The Financial Times reported gold trading above $5,300 an ounce, reflecting dollar weakness and safe-haven behavior.
This cross-asset comparison, described in the FT report, is significant for assessing whether Bitcoin is trading alongside hedge instruments or equities.
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The mechanism for transmitting to spot Bitcoin now includes the ETF wrapper, where net flow totals can validate, rather than clarify, whatever macro framework emerges following the Fed’s communication.
Live ETF data indicates an initial two-day surge (+$1.59B on Jan. 13–14) that was gradually reversed by ongoing outflows, with 7 of the 12 sessions being negative, notably -$708.7m on Jan. 21, leaving the period down approximately -$298m overall (and around -$1.76B since Jan. 15).
Confirmation checklist for the next few sessions
For traders observing this cluster, the key question is how to define Bitcoin’s identity once the Fed establishes its near-term response function and the institutional-risk narrative persists through the Supreme Court timeline.
One method to formalize the watchlist is to focus the next 24–72 hours on observable indicators, then seek confirmation from correlations that can be monitored in real time rather than relying on unverifiable narratives.
| Indicator to monitor (next 24–72h) | Published reference point in pack | Significance for BTC regime classification |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year real yield (TIPS) | Latest daily (Jan. 26, 2026) = 1.90% (FRED DFII10) | Increased real yields typically tighten financial conditions for long-duration exposures. |
| 10-year breakeven inflation | Latest daily (Jan. 27, 2026) = 2.34% (FRED T10YIE) | Flat breakevens alongside rising nominal yields usually suggest real yields are influencing. |
| U.S. dollar index (DXY) | 95.86 on Jan. 27, noted as a four-year low (MarketWatch) | Weakness in the dollar can redirect demand towards scarce assets, especially when linked to credibility issues. |
| Gold spot context | Reported above $5,300/oz (FT) | If BTC moves in tandem with gold while the USD weakens, traders may consider it a hedge proxy in this environment. |
| U.S. spot BTC ETF net flows | Most recent finalized day: -$147.4m (Jan. 27); Jan. 28 entries show dashes early in the session (Farside) | Flows can verify whether the marginal buyer is entering or retreating following macro repricing. |
Three analytical paths can guide what constitutes confirmation after the Fed’s statement and press briefing.
In a “hawkish hold” scenario (analysis), traders would expect real yields to remain stable or increase while breakevens stay flat or decrease, a combination consistent with tighter conditions.
They would then assess whether Bitcoin weakens in line with that real-yield movement and whether U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net flows decrease on the next published figures.
For additional context on liquidity and flows, see CryptoSlate’s coverage of spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
In a “dovish hold” scenario (analysis), the inquiry is whether real yields decline and the dollar continues its downward trend, then whether Bitcoin strength corresponds with that situation.
Traders would also look for ETF flow totals to turn positive once Farside posts numerical entries instead of dashes.
In an “independence-risk premium dominates” scenario (analysis), the focus shifts to whether the dollar remains pressured amid the WSJ’s confidence framing and whether gold stays bid.
From there, the examination becomes whether Bitcoin co-moves with gold more frequently than it co-moves with rate-sensitive risks during the same sessions, a dynamic CoinDesk has explored in relation to a “digital gold” narrative.
The Supreme Court timeline keeps the institutional-risk discussion relevant even after the Fed’s Jan. 28 press briefing, since the AP reported that the decision is expected by early summer rather than immediately.
This timeframe can influence positioning if markets continue to connect the dollar’s decline to concerns regarding central bank independence, as noted by the WSJ.
In that scenario, the connection pushes more price discovery into FX and hedges rather than single data points.
Longer-term reference points are also shaping how some desks frame the hedge comparison, although those are models rather than commitments.
Business Insider reported that JPMorgan strategists compared Bitcoin and gold on a volatility-adjusted basis and derived a theoretical Bitcoin price near $170,000 over a six to twelve-month horizon.
The model is detailed in Business Insider’s report, a figure that traders may consider as a guideline when determining how much of a gold-style regime shift is already factored in.
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As of 8:00 a.m. EST on Jan. 28, the actionable elements for this week’s market remain time-stamped and quantifiable: the Fed’s 2:00 p.m. EST statement and 2:30 p.m. EST press briefing later today, the already-argued Supreme Court case the AP states will be resolved by early summer, and the DXY level noted at 95.86.
This same checklist includes gold trading above $5,300 according to the FT and the next published ETF net flow totals on Farside.
For related CryptoSlate coverage of the Fed-driven market, see how Bitcoin responded to Fed signals regarding quantitative tightening and how BTC moved in conjunction with dollar weakness.
The post Bitcoin enters 72-hour danger zone as both historic Supreme Court battle and Fed decision threaten to tank the dollar appeared first on CryptoSlate.
