Bitcoin approaches the $95,000 support level following a decline that eliminated $655 million from bullish positions.

Bitcoin has accomplished what many bulls feared: it dropped below six figures, fell past $100,000, and even descended below $98,000 in a wave of liquidations reminiscent of May.

According to CryptoSlate, BTC reached a low of $98,550, resulting in $190 million in long liquidations within an hour and $655 million over a 24-hour period, as spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $278 million on Nov. 12 and $961 million for the month thus far.

Graph illustrating Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase from Nov. 13 to Nov. 14, 2025 (Source: TradingView)

This incident transformed a gradual decline into a steep drop, eliminating leveraged longs and compelling the market to confront the on-chain support situated below the current price.

On-chain data indicates changing market structure beneath $100k

Data from Coinbase highlighted the magnitude of the movement in the US following the onset of liquidations. Bitcoin peaked at $103,988 before plummeting to $95,900, ultimately closing near $96,940: just slightly over 2% above $95,000, the on-chain HODLers Wall. The market declined from a 5% buffer above the wall to nearly reaching it.

The structure of the on-chain wall persists, but the price dynamics have altered. Cost-basis distribution indicates that around 65% of all invested USD in Bitcoin is above $95,000, with every short-term holder’s coin valued at that level or higher, and 30% of the long-term holder supply within the same range.

Chart depicting the invested value in Bitcoin by cohort as of Nov. 12, 2025 (Source: Checkonchain)

This situation is not akin to the speculative atmosphere of the 2017 peak or the initial 2021 high. It resembles the denser “second-wind” structure of late 2021, where experienced holders and new participants occupied the topping zone, and resolution extended over several months.

This density accounts for the prolonged stagnation in spot prices. The US election rally last year attracted a wide range of buyers into the $95k–$115k bracket and kept them trapped throughout a year of sideways trading.

With the short-term holder cost basis already breached at approximately $112,000, each unsuccessful attempt to reclaim that level has left more recent buyers at a loss while long-term holders maintain a layered cost-basis structure just below the highs.

Futures unwind and ETF outflows indicate a thinning support zone

The recent cascade revealed that structure: once futures longs began to unwind, there was minimal fresh demand between the $106k-$118k resistance zone identified by Glassnode and the psychological $100k mark, and ETF demand was insufficient to absorb the forced selling.

The significant distinction now lies in who is selling. In 2017 and 2021, supply near the peak primarily came from short-term holders. Following those peaks, older, profitable coins were rotated out. Subsequently, unrealized losses reached 15% of the market cap within six weeks, filling previous air pockets.

In 2025, unrealized losses are about half of what they were in January 2022, even with BTC trading below $100k and nearing the wall.

Glassnode data indicates that short-term holders have been underwater against their $111,900 cost basis since October. Their realized profit-loss ratio fell below 0.21 near $98,000, indicating that over 80% of the value they transacted there was sold at a loss.

This represents classic capitulation by top buyers, rather than a widespread exit by long-term holders. Checkonchain confirms that nearly half of the coins recently sold originated from high-entry, recent buyers exiting as the market hovers near the wall.

This is why $95k remains significant. It was a theoretical bull cycle “fail point”; now the price approaches it. New Coinbase data reveals that BTC’s $95,900 low places it deep within the long-term holder zone, where the majority of coins remain unchanged. If this group remains steadfast, the wall can absorb forced selling from short-term holders and derivatives.

However, if Bitcoin decisively drops below $95,000, the path ahead is relatively clear. The first support level lies around $85,000, the “tariff tantrum” low, where spot established a local bottom during earlier policy uncertainties and briefly refilled part of last year’s air pocket.

Below that is the True Market Mean at $82,000, which is positioned directly over the residual gap from the US election surge and would naturally attract a deeper decline. Only beyond those levels does the significant, older demand band between $50,000 and $75,000 re-enter the discussion.

How this cycle’s risk profile differs from 2022

There is another crucial distinction from 2022 that the current price movement has not altered.

At that time, the loss of the $45k base of that cycle’s HODLers Wall was rapid and severe: the short-term holder cost basis collapsed at $54k, the wall at $45k provided almost no support, and the market fell straight to the True Market Mean around $36k, intersecting a multi-year air pocket that dated back to the beginning of the cycle.

In this cycle, the potential decline from the wall to the mean is considerably shorter, and the underlying demand from the 2024 range is closer in price. A shift from $95k to the low-$80ks would be painful, but it would not replicate the kind of deep, multi-year bear market that followed the 2021 peaks.

The short-term environment remains precarious. ETF flows are leaning negative, with redemptions replacing the steady inflows that supported Bitcoin for most of the year. Perpetual funding and open interest have decreased since the leverage flush in October. Options markets are now offering an 11% implied volatility premium for puts over calls, indicating that traders are hedging for downside risks.

The forthcoming developments depend less on short-term traders and more on the holders who possess the majority of the supply above and just below $95k.

If they maintain their resolve, the wall can continue to serve as a support level, allowing the market time to rebuild demand. If they falter, the trajectory through $85k and down toward the $82k mean is already outlined on the on-chain chart.

The post Bitcoin tests the $95k HODL wall after cascade knocks out $655M from bulls appeared first on CryptoSlate.