Bitcoin approaches fifth consecutive monthly decline as $4.5 billion in ETF withdrawals jeopardize $58,000.

Bitcoin is approaching a challenging milestone, potentially marking a fifth consecutive monthly decline if February concludes negatively, and the situation is beginning to resemble a macroeconomic-driven repricing rather than a crypto-specific downturn.

This five-month losing streak would be significant in the post-ETF landscape and would represent Bitcoin’s longest series of monthly declines since 2018, when it experienced six consecutive months of losses during the bear market.

Currently priced under $63,000, BTC has decreased by nearly 20% this month, marking its largest monthly decline since June 2022.

Bitcoin Monthly Returns Since 2018 (Source: CoinGlass)

Nevertheless, the ongoing negative price trend is not the primary focus.

The more significant change is that Bitcoin is being valued within a different framework, where ETF inflows, interest rate expectations, and cross-asset risk sentiment are becoming more influential than crypto-specific factors.

Consequently, BTC traders are no longer focused on the timing of a return to new highs. Instead, the discussion has shifted to identifying the next sustainable buying opportunity, with $58,000 drawing considerable attention.

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Feb 19, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

A market driven by ETF flows, positioning and macro

In recent weeks, Bitcoin has been trading less as an independent digital asset and more like a high-beta risk asset.

This distinction is important as it alters how traders interpret market movements.

In a crypto-centric market, narratives surrounding adoption, protocol enhancements, or long-term scarcity can dominate short-term price fluctuations.

In the current environment, the key factors are more familiar to macro traders, including flow data, options positioning, and overall risk appetite.

This transition is most evident in ETF activity.

When spot Bitcoin ETFs were experiencing consistent inflows, price pullbacks were often met with immediate demand. These inflows provided a buffer, not due to a bullish sentiment shift, but because the market structure necessitated buying.

Now, the reverse dynamic is in effect. Ongoing outflows not only eliminate support; they can also create supply pressure.

This year, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $4.5 billion in net outflows, indicating that institutional demand through the ETF structure remains under strain, even as segments of the market continue to seek a bottom.

This represents a significant shift in marginal demand, which helps clarify why price recoveries have struggled to maintain momentum.

Data from CryptoQuant further supports the argument that spot Bitcoin ETFs have become crucial to BTC’s price dynamics.

Since May 2025, daily trading volume in Bitcoin spot ETFs has surpassed the combined volume of global centralized exchanges. Currently, 55% of all daily Bitcoin spot trading volume is derived from ETFs.

Bitcoin ETF Spot Volume Dominance (Source: CryptoQuant)

Essentially, institutional flows have emerged as the primary liquidity source in the market, rather than just one component.

This shift alters the market’s center of gravity, as retail investors increasingly respond to a price-discovery process led by Wall Street.

The outcome is a market that resembles a macro asset under pressure, characterized by lower highs, repeated support tests, and a tendency to revisit the same price levels until either the flow environment improves or a more robust floor is established.

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Why $58,000 has become the key stress-test level

The increasing emphasis on $58,000 is not merely about a single chart pattern. It signifies a convergence of various frameworks.

The first is a long-cycle technical structure. The 200-week EMA remains one of the most closely monitored regime indicators in Bitcoin.

During previous bear markets and late-cycle corrections, price movements near this level have often prompted a broader reevaluation, whether it signifies a correction within an uptrend or the onset of a more profound repricing.

The second factor is the on-chain cost-basis gravity. Below this contested area, traders are observing aggregate cost-basis metrics, including realized-price anchors.

When Bitcoin approaches the average embedded purchase price of holders, behavior tends to shift.

Some investors reduce risk and realize losses, while others enter the market because the price appears more attractive relative to the network’s purchase history.

The third factor is the demand cluster within the current range.

Recent on-chain analysis indicates a contested area between $60,000 and $69,000, where demand has been absorbing repeated selling pressure.

If this zone is breached decisively, $58,000 becomes the next clearer reference point, positioned below the cluster and above deeper cost-basis anchors.

This is why $58,000 is best viewed as a stress test, rather than the ultimate floor.

If the market maintains its position there, it could initiate the formation of a base. Conversely, if it fails, attention may quickly shift to deeper on-chain levels in the mid-$50,000 range.

Options markets show organized downside demand, not panic

Derivatives data reinforces the significance of $58,000 as a focal point.

Data from Deribit reveals a consistent downtrend in the current range, with options market participants continuing to position for downside through protective trades and bearish strategies.

The structure of these trades is important as it clarifies the type of movement participants are preparing for.

According to the firm, BTC’s put skew has returned to levels seen on February 5, and implied volatility is trading more than 10% above realized volatility on a seven-day basis.

This combination indicates strong demand for downside protection, occurring without a fresh spot collapse comparable to the February 5 movement.

The demand is concentrated around $58,000 strike prices. Traders have been active in 58,000 puts, put spreads, and risk reversals, with the derivatives market increasingly organized around this level as the primary downside reference.

Bitcoin Put and Call Options (Source: Deribit)

Deribit highlighted that a clear example emerged with the addition of March 6, 58,000 puts, where approximately $200 million in notional was purchased for about $2 million in premium.

This is significant as it suggests that funds are positioning for a gradual decline, rather than an abrupt capitulation.

In a grinding market, put spreads and risk reversals can be more effective than outright puts, as they lower premium costs and extend the duration of the trade’s potential returns.

Simultaneously, Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research Alex Thorn noted that Bitcoin is approaching all-time oversold conditions.

Bitcoin RSI (Source: Alex Thorn)

Thorn indicated that the weekly RSI is lower than at any time outside what he referred to as the darkest bear phases, and he pointed out that the only lower readings since 2016 occurred in November/December 2018, when Bitcoin dropped from approximately $6,000 to $3,000, and in June/July 2022, during the Three Arrows Capital collapse and the period preceding Genesis’ insolvency becoming evident.

This does not guarantee a rebound, but it does frame the current situation as statistically stretched, even if the market still requires a catalyst for stabilization.

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On-chain data shows where deeper pain and support could emerge

CryptoQuant data regarding long-term holders adds another dimension to the market’s decision-making process.

According to the firm, long-term holders (LTHs), a group that is typically less reactive to short-term price changes, are still holding an average profit of approximately 74%.

This indicates that the group is not yet under significant stress, although the margin is diminishing as the spot price declines.

CryptoQuant estimates the LTH cost basis at around $38,900, and this figure is increasing over time as short-term holders who purchased at higher prices transition into the long-term category.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Realized Profit and Loss (Source: CryptoQuant)

In other words, the pain threshold is not static. It rises with the cycle.

Historically, CryptoQuant noted that bear markets have often involved a breach below the LTH cost basis, followed by a final capitulation phase characterized by realized losses of around 20%.

This has typically been the kind of washout that clears leverage and facilitates a more sustainable recovery.

CryptoQuant cautioned that this observation is based on a limited number of instances. This caveat is particularly relevant in the current cycle.

The structure of Bitcoin ownership has evolved. Institutions, corporate entities, and sovereign actors now play a more significant role than in previous cycles.

These participants bring different mandates, time horizons, and liquidity profiles, and these structural changes could influence how the market reacts around traditional on-chain pain points.

This is one reason why the mid-$50,000 to $60,000 range is so critical.

It may represent the area where old-cycle patterns and new-cycle market structures intersect, and where traders will determine whether institutional involvement mitigates the drawdown or merely exacerbates it through ETF flows and macro-sensitive positioning.

The next move depends on whether the market can repair, or has to flush

The clearest way to frame Bitcoin as the month concludes is as a series of potential paths, rather than a singular forecast.

The base case is a gradual grind. Bitcoin continues to trade within the contested $60,000 to $69,000 range, experiencing sharp intraday fluctuations but no decisive break.

February ends negatively, the five-month losing streak is confirmed, and the market interprets the movement as a reset rather than a collapse.

This scenario would likely necessitate a continued slowdown in ETF outflows, a reduction in spot selling pressure, and options markets remaining defensive without a new spike in volatility.

The bear case is a mechanical flush. A breach below the $60,000 demand zone triggers stop-losses and systematic selling, pushing the price into the $58,000 test.

If the 200-week EMA fails to draw sufficient demand, attention would shift to deeper cost-basis anchors in the mid-$50,000 range.

In this scenario, the catalyst is not necessarily a crypto-specific shock. It involves ongoing ETF outflows, weaker risk sentiment across markets, and a derivatives market that continues to pay for downside protection.

The bull case is a flow-led recovery. Bitcoin maintains its current demand zone, ETF flows stabilize and then become positive, and options skew begins to normalize.

This would enable the price to move back toward higher on-chain mean levels associated with more expansionary conditions.

In this context, the streak ends not due to an initial improvement in sentiment, but because the marginal buyer re-enters the market.

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