As Ethereum investors shift their holdings, XRP analysis reveals a critical concentration issue that burdens a specific group.

The prevailing belief is that seasoned holders refrain from selling during downturns. They tend to accumulate during price declines, realize profits during bullish phases, and generally remain inactive while newer participants engage in trading.

As we approach late 2025, this model is being challenged. In the realms of Ethereum, XRP, and certain segments of the DeFi ecosystem, inactive whales are transferring assets to exchanges as mid-term investors exit, resulting in a split distribution pattern that indicates which assets possess substantial cost-basis depth and which are predominantly held by recent entrants.

Distribution without capitulation

This moment is notable not just for the selling itself, as veteran holders frequently adjust their positions, but for the timing and nature of these transactions.

Whales in Ethereum accumulated 460,000 ETH as prices dipped below $3,200 in mid-November, yet Santiment’s Age Consumed metric showed a slowdown rather than an increase.

This divergence is significant: if fewer very old coins are being transferred while overall whale balances rise, the selling pressure is coming from holders in the three-to-ten-year range adjusting their positions rather than from ICO-era wallets liquidating.

Data from Glassnode indicates that these mid-duration holders are selling approximately 45,000 ETH daily, a steady rate that contrasts with the panic-driven surges observed earlier in the year when both short- and long-term holders exited simultaneously.

XRP presents a contrasting narrative. The dormant circulation for the 365-day cohort surged to its highest level since July as whales moved long-held assets to Binance, reactivating supply that had remained dormant during the previous rally.

CryptoQuant’s 100-day simple moving average for the Whale-to-Exchange Flow metric peaked on November 6, indicating a multi-month upward trend and suggesting that the distribution is structural rather than episodic.

When considering the reactivation of dormant supply across both one-year-plus and three-to-twelve-month cohorts, the trend is evident: XRP’s movements in 2025 systematically drew out older holders who had endured consolidation and now view exits as a logical decision.

Although the flow of whale exchanges has decreased, it remains at some of the highest levels recorded in 2025.

XRP’s Whale to Exchange Flow reached multi-year highs in late 2024 before tapering off through November 2025, mirroring price fluctuations throughout the year.

The trade-off inherent in these flows is clear. Ethereum’s whales are adjusting their positions, and older holders are selling into strength as new buyers enter at elevated cost bases, establishing a rising realized cap floor even as prices stabilize.

XRP’s whales are distributing into a market where latecomers already possess the majority of the realized cap at high prices, leaving little room for absorption if spot demand continues to decline.

Realized cap as the structural tell

Realized cap reflects the total cost basis of all coins, weighted by the price at which they last changed hands. For assets that have established genuine cost-basis ladders over multiple cycles, realized cap serves as long-term support.

For assets that generated most of their realized cap in a single surge, the structure is fragile: when the top cohort sells, there is little support beneath.

As of November 18, Ethereum’s realized cap stood at $391 billion, according to Santiment, absorbing distribution from older holders through new inflows even as prices fluctuated sideways.

This ongoing accumulation at various entry points indicates that the network maintains cost-basis diversity, while short-term holders are more vulnerable if another downturn occurs; however, veteran cohorts trimming at $3,200 do not destabilize the entire structure because new participants have filled the gap at intermediate levels.

XRP’s realized cap nearly doubled from $30 billion to $64 billion during the late-2024 rally, with $30 billion of that attributed to buyers who entered in the last six months.

By early 2025, coins younger than six months represented 62.8% of the realized cap, up from 23%, concentrating cost basis at cycle highs. Glassnode’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has been trending downward since January, indicating that recent entrants are now realizing losses instead of gains.

When whales transfer old coins to exchanges in November, reactivating dormant supply at the moment when latecomers are already underwater, the realized cap imbalance becomes a key vulnerability.

Dormancy as a leading indicator

Dormancy metrics monitor when previously inactive supply reenters active circulation. Spikes in these indicators do not necessarily indicate market tops but rather signal a change in market dynamics.

When holders who have endured previous cycles determine that conditions warrant an exit, their movements often precede broader distribution because they operate on longer time horizons and larger position sizes than retail investors.

Ethereum’s Age Consumed spikes in September and October were driven by ICO-era wallets finally moving after years of inactivity, but these transactions occurred during strength rather than panic.

By mid-November, as whales holding between 1,000 and 100,000 ETH accumulated over 1.6 million ETH, the Age Consumed metric quieted, indicating that the significant flows were driven by large holders rotating rather than ancient wallets capitulating.

This creates a support level: if the oldest cohorts are not selling and mid-term whales are buying, spot absorption can manage measured profit-taking from the three-to-ten-year band.

XRP’s dormancy pattern, however, exhibited a different trend. The 365-day Dormant Circulation reached levels not seen since July, with repeated spikes as old coins became active and moved to exchanges.

The reactivations became more frequent as the price struggled to maintain levels above $2, indicating that holders who had endured the consolidation decided the risk-reward no longer justified their patience.

When dormancy spikes coincide with declining spot demand and a top-heavy realized cap, the signal is clear: veterans are distributing into a market that cannot absorb it without undermining price support.

Who holds the bag

If Ethereum’s distribution continues at the current rate, with three-to-ten-year holders selling 45,000 ETH daily while whales accumulate and realized cap rises, the result will be a market with increased long-term support but heightened short-term volatility.

New entrants at $3,000-$3,500 will become the marginal sellers if prices decline, while veteran cohorts maintain unrealized gains substantial enough to withstand another downturn.

If XRP’s dormant-supply reactivations persist while the realized cap remains concentrated among holders with six-month-or-newer holdings, the situation becomes more precarious.

Each wave of veteran distribution pushes recent buyers further underwater. Since these recent buyers constitute the majority of the realized cap, their capitulation would collapse the cost-basis floor rather than merely testing it.

The risk is self-reinforcing: whales distribute, latecomers sell at losses, realized cap declines, and the next group of holders faces an even weaker support structure.

For protocols like Aave, where dormancy data is limited, a single address crystallizing $1.54 million in losses by selling 15,396 AAVE during a downtrend indicates forced or fear-driven exits from recent entrants, not long-term holders realizing profits.

When such losses occur while the asset trades below all major moving averages and broader DeFi risk appetite diminishes, late-cycle capital is exiting rather than rotating.

Who decides the floor

The key question is whether the dormant supply reactivations in this cycle signify healthy rotation, with veteran holders exiting at profits while new capital enters at higher bases, or the onset of a broader deleveraging where top-heavy realized caps collapse under sustained distribution.

Ethereum’s data suggests that older coins are being moved. However, the majority of recent flows appear to come from mid-term whales adjusting their positions rather than ancient wallets liquidating, and the rising realized cap indicates that new money continues to average in.

XRP’s data implies that dormancy spikes are drawing out holders with over one year of holdings, while 62.8% of the realized cap is held by buyers who entered in the last six months.

The outcome hinges on which cohort acts first. If recent entrants hold and spot demand stabilizes, veteran distribution will be absorbed, and the market will establish a higher floor through turnover.

If latecomers capitulate before veteran sellers exhaust their positions, realized cap will decline, cost-basis depth will diminish, and the next support level will be significantly lower than the current price.

Whales are becoming active. Whether this represents a rotation or a rout depends on who remains to absorb what they are selling.

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