5 clear indicators that will determine if the Bitcoin upward trend is ongoing

Crypto Twitter is abuzz with assertions that “everyone is purchasing Bitcoin,” including figures like Michael Saylor, BlackRock, entire nations, and even financial institutions.

However, in spite of these accumulation narratives, Bitcoin’s value has sharply declined, falling below critical thresholds as ETF inflows turned negative.

This disparity between optimistic headlines and decreasing prices highlights an essential aspect: in markets influenced by liquidity and marginal flow, the identity of actual buyers and their timing is significantly more important than who claims to be buying.

Bitcoin dropped below $106,400 as spot ETF inflows turned negative for four consecutive sessions. This change occurred as BlackRock’s IBIT experienced redemptions totaling $714.8 million over the past four days, eliminating a major source of daily demand just as a closely monitored cycle pivot was breached.

As reported by Farside Investors, the outflows of $88.1 million, $290.9 million, $149.3 million, and $186.5 million coincided with this breakdown. These outflows compelled selling by authorized participants who redeemed shares for the underlying Bitcoin and sold them into the market.

Consequently, the net flow reversed. When creations diminish and redemptions increase across the U.S. spot ETF landscape, the daily bid that previously absorbed volatility transforms into a source of supply.

In mid-October, there were periods of net outflows across digital asset funds as Bitcoin struggled to maintain its position above $106,400. Although there were brief inflow days towards the end of the month, the latest trend shifted back into negative territory, a pattern consistent with the IBIT data mentioned earlier.

The mechanical effects are significant because ETF flows translate into spot purchases or sales, and the timing coincides with a breach of a level that many traders use to differentiate between a late-cycle pullback and a trend resumption.

Derivatives added pressure.

The CME three-month futures premium has decreased to approximately 4 to 5 percent annualized in the latter half of the year, limiting carry-trade incentives that draw institutional basis demand into rallies.

Simultaneously, funding on perpetual swaps has softened or turned negative at times, a situation that accelerates downward movements when long positions de-risk and liquidations cluster.

In such an environment, slow, scheduled spot accumulation from corporations or sovereign entities does not counterbalance forced unwinds on leverage or redemptions on regulated products that directly translate to spot sales.

Macro conditions have not facilitated an easier path. The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded towards the 98-100 range in November after a weak first half, while the U.S. 10-year yield, hovering around 4.1 percent, keeps real rates restrictive.

A stronger dollar and tight real yields typically compress global liquidity and exert pressure on long-duration risk, and Bitcoin continues to react to these influences at tactical timeframes. When flows are relatively flat, the dollar often determines whether a bounce sustains or diminishes.

Supply narratives also remain relevant. The Mt. Gox rehabilitation timeline has been extended once more to October 31, 2026, following partial distributions earlier this year, which maintains a recurring overhang in focus, even if actual sales are staggered.

Periodic updates from trustees and wallet movements have consistently tightened risk tolerance during rebounds. Miners represent another variable.

Post-halving economics have also left hashprice near cycle lows compared to the spring spike. This context creates ongoing incentives for treasury monetization during stressful days, which can align with soft funding to exert procyclical pressure.

Bitcoin hashprice (Source: Luxor)

The cycle framing ties these pieces together.

I recently identified $126,000 as the cycle peak and $106,400 as the bull-bear pivot.

The price has just lost that pivot as the ETF bid transitioned into net selling, while basis remained subdued and funding cooled.

Interestingly, common on-chain and cycle indicators, such as the 2-Year MA Multiplier, Pi Cycle Top, and RHODL, have not reached euphoria this cycle, even near the peaks. Metrics are already trending towards distribution and mean reversion as flow support has diminished.

This could suggest that the bull run may be prolonged this cycle, or it could indicate diminishing returns when compared to previous cycle transitions.

RHODL Ratio (Source: Bitcoin Magazine)

These tools are not independent timing devices. Nevertheless, when they align with daily flow inflection and macro rigidity, traders tend to withdraw liquidity, which amplifies the effects of incremental sales.

Why is the price declining if BlackRock, corporations, or nations are buying? The flow math provides a direct answer.

Purchases by nation-states are sporadic and minor compared to daily turnover, and corporate treasuries operate on unique schedules.

Banks typically facilitate client transactions rather than taking on balance-sheet risk daily. None of these entities counterbalance a week where issuers that usually create shares instead redeem, funding drifts towards or below zero, and the dollar strengthens. In that scenario, the marginal seller dominates.

The short-term trajectory hinges on whether spot creations reemerge and the basis expands. A continued series of net outflow days from the largest U.S. spot ETFs, particularly IBIT and FBTC, with CME basis pinned near or below 5 percent annualized and funding flat to negative, would maintain the market in a distribution phase.

Under such conditions, failing to reclaim $106,400 positions $100,000 as the battleground and opens the mid to high $90,000s on further negative sessions, especially if macro conditions remain tight.

A more neutral outcome, characterized by oscillating but smaller flows, a basis stabilizing in the 5-7 percent range, and a range-bound dollar around 97-100, suggests digestion between $100,000 and $106,000 while liquidity rebuilds.

The bullish scenario necessitates a return of multi-day net creations in the $300 to $800 million range across the complex, based on pushing above 8 to 10 percent, and a softer dollar.

This combination would enable a retest of $110,000 to $115,000 and reopen the discussion regarding the cycle peak if flows persist.

One method to monitor the current situation is to focus on daily issuer-level flows, then incorporate derivatives and macroeconomic factors.

How to determine if the Bitcoin bull run is still ongoing

1. ETF Flows (Farside data): Sustained multi-day creations from major issuers like BlackRock’s IBIT or Fidelity’s FBTC indicate renewed demand. Ongoing redemptions or flat prints, conversely, confirm that the bid has shifted to supply.
2. Fund Flows (CoinShares report): Broad inflows across the digital asset fund landscape, particularly when led by Bitcoin, suggest institutional rotation back into risk. Persistent outflows or concentration in defensive alt products indicate capital withdrawal.
3. Leverage Conditions (CME basis and funding): An increasing basis (above ~7–8% annualized) and positive, stable funding imply a desire for directional risk, typical in active bull phases. A flat or negative setup suggests deleveraging and distribution.
4. Macro Liquidity (DXY and 10-year yield): A weaker dollar (DXY < 97) and easing yields open liquidity channels that historically support bullish momentum. Strength in either metric tightens liquidity and applies pressure on the crypto beta.
5. Mining Supply Pressure (Hashprice trends): Rising hashprice and stable or declining miner selling will indicate that the market is comfortably absorbing new supply, a bullish sign. Falling hashprice or spikes in miner transfers to exchanges often signal stress points within uptrends.

The last four trading days converted the spot-ETF bid into a sustained net seller, precisely as Bitcoin lost its pivot. With CME basis subdued and funding soft, the marginal price was influenced by de-risking rather than dip-buying.

A stronger USD and persistent real yields contributed to a flow-led break, not a judgment on long-term adoption. Until daily creations return and $106,400 is reclaimed, this remains a distribution-and-digest phase within the broader cycle.

IBIT flow date	Net flow (USD millions)
Oct 29	-88.1
Oct 30	-290.9
Oct 31	-149.3
Nov 03	-186.5
Total	-714.8

Ultimately, unless the historical Bitcoin cycle pattern has been altered by the influx of corporate treasuries and ETF flows, then Father Time has already made his pronouncement.

If Bitcoin were to achieve a new all-time high by the end of the year or in 2026, it would represent the latest cycle peak ever.

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