Bitcoin value may reach $46,000 by the 2024 halving — Discussion with Filbfilb

Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to conclude 2023 at $35,000, even though it may experience declines along the way, according to seasoned analyst Filbfilb.

In a recent discussion with Cointelegraph, the co-founder of the trading platform DecenTrader shares some BTC price targets that are likely to resonate with long-term investors.

Bitcoin is encountering several challenges in its current upward trend, and this cycle presents various significant distinctions from previous ones. It is not solely the Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) situation; the overall macroeconomic landscape appears significantly different from just a few years ago.

Filbfilb anticipates that the April 2024 block subsidy halving will have a transformative impact on BTC price movements. BTC/USD could potentially reach as high as $46,000 by that time, but declines are “likely” to follow thereafter.

Filbfilb anticipates a “likely” BTC price drop to the low $20,000 range

Cointelegraph (CT): Recently, you forecasted another BTC price decline to “eliminate the remaining hopium.” What do you consider the long-term floor?

Filbfilb (FF): This is contingent on various factors; as observed during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, the floor was slightly above $3,000, so I would expect the lows around $16,000 seen after the FTX collapse to hold. However, barring an unexpected event, a range in the low $20,000s seems plausible.

CT: Do you still anticipate a shift in price behavior in Q4 as miners and institutional investors “buy the rumor” regarding the halving?

FF: Based on historical cycles, we have observed a reduction in new supply entering the market prior to the halving. Combined with heightened speculative demand, I believe this pattern is likely to repeat.

CT: Regarding miners, what is your perspective on the relationship between price and hash rate, given that the latter continues to reach new highs?

FF: I have not been able to establish a direct correlation between hash rate and price.

CT: What has surprised you about BTC price movements this year compared to other pre-halving years?

FF: There has been a failure to surpass the 100-week moving average thus far, which is a significant difference. Historically, this has confirmed the bull market to some degree. Timing-wise, the recovery from the 2022 lows aligns with previous patterns.

CT: Much attention has been given to the outcome of the Grayscale vs. SEC lawsuit last week. How important do you believe this news is? Do you foresee a U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF approval soon?

FF: The SEC appears to have a strategy of “delay at all costs,” which has now included unreasonable rejections. Observing the actions of major players — such as BlackRock filing multiple ETF applications — it seems highly improbable that the largest institutional asset managers would proceed without adequate due diligence and expect failure. In my view, it is a question of “when” rather than “if” approval will occur.

CT: You’ve referred to U.S. inflation as the “elephant in the room” this cycle — how might this influence Bitcoin after the halving next year?

FF: The longer inflation and interest rates remain elevated, the less disposable income retail investors have for investment. Furthermore, the cost of capital has generally risen due to the higher risk-free rate of return; this makes allocating assets to riskier investments less appealing. The longer this situation persists, the less capital will pursue investments like Bitcoin.

CT: What are your preferred metrics for tracking BTC’s price without noise?

FF: At a high level, I focus on directional price momentum, along with market positioning (such as long/short ratios, funding rates, and open interest), which informs my analysis of shorter-term market movements.

CT: What is your BTC price target for the end of the year and at the 2024 halving?

FF: Assuming no unexpected events, I anticipate around $35,000 by year-end and potentially as high as $46,000 sometime before the halving in Q1 2024.

DOGE, XRP stand out among altcoins

CT: Aside from Bitcoin, are you surprised by the NFT market downturn? Does it have a future?

Related: Bitcoin price metric mirrors movement that last occurred before -25% FTX crash

FF: I am not surprised by the NFT downturn. I do believe there is some utility in certain types of NFTs, such as for ticketing and music applications; however, the significantly overpriced pieces of “art” were never something I could comprehend.

CT: Are there any altcoins in particular that you believe could perform exceptionally well in the new cycle?

FF: Currently, my primary focus is on Bitcoin; altcoins typically begin to move after the halving. However, I expect XRP (XRP) to perform well in the next cycle due to its legal situation with the SEC and its potential to gain market share. I would also not dismiss Dogecoin (DOGE) performing well again, especially if Elon Musk integrates crypto into X.

This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.